Hungary-Slovakia gas capacity to rise by 33pc
Gas transmission capacity from Hungary towards Slovakia at the Velke Zlievce/Balassagyarmat border point will increase by one-third from tomorrow until the end of March 2025.
Capacity towards Slovakia will rise to 101.8 GWh/d from 76.3 GWh/d at present, but only on a "pilot basis" until the end of March 2025, Hungarian grid operator FGSZ and its Slovak counterpart Eustream announced this morning.
The additional capacity will be offered in daily auctions today for tomorrow's gas day, and will be offered in all further capacity auctions according to the auction calendar.
Hungarian exit flows towards Slovakia averaged 71 GWh/d in September, utilising 93pc of the full technical capacity at Velke Zlievce/Balassagyarmat.
Price incentives have driven those brisk outflows, with the Hungarian prompt holding below corresponding prices in all nearby markets above it for all of last month, except for 16 September (see graph).
FGSZ also recently prolonged higher exit capacity towards Ukraine on a pilot basis until the end of this year.
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Acer opens consultation on EU gas network code revision
Acer opens consultation on EU gas network code revision
London, 30 September (Argus) — EU energy regulators' agency Acer has opened a final consultation on proposed changes to the capacity allocation mechanism (CAM NC), with a view to finalising its recommendations in December. The consultation on 26 September-25 October seeks opinions on Acer's suggested changes to the CAM NC, including options for reforming the incremental capacity process. One option would completely remove the mechanism from CAM NC, while another would amend the process to make it "more robust and efficient". A third would remove the mechanism's binding stage but keep the demand assessment and design stages, Acer proposed. The incremental capacity process has made a "very limited contribution to cross-border capacity development based on market interests", with just one successful project in four cycles, Acer said. Acer also recommended allowing transmission system operators (TSOs) to request deposits from network users that submit non-binding demand indications, which could be returned if the economic test passes at least the lowest level of offered capacity, or if the user submits a binding bid equal to its non-binding indication. Acer also recommended creating a new ‘balance-of-month' (BOM) capacity product, either through rolling auctions for packaged daily products over progressively shorter terms or a standardised BOM product with a dynamic multiplier. TSOs and regulators said the former would be simpler and cheaper to implement, but shippers preferred the latter, Acer said. The EU agency expressed some support for a standardised product with a dedicated price and a dynamic multiplier depending on the days remaining in a month, as this could be accomplished relatively quickly. Acer also recommended that after the initial offering of yearly, quarterly and monthly firm capacities, these products should be offered again in subsequent additional auctions that should take place once a week on Thursdays. Only the relevant upcoming period would be offered in additional auctions, meaning — for example — additional yearly auctions would offer only the upcoming gas year. And separately, monthly capacity should be offered up to three months in advance within each quarter. The group suggested that decisions on applying implicit capacity allocation methods be made jointly by regulators in a region as opposed to a single body, as offering only on one side of an interconnection "would hinder the efficient allocation of capacity". Acer suggested that from 5 August 2026, CAM NC provisions also apply to entry points from and exit points to non-EU countries, subject to derogations under the new decarbonised gas package, before which time the decision would still be taken by national regulatory authorities. And Acer proposed shifting the auction calendar year to July-June rather than March-February, as moving annual capacity auctions to July from March has left the current calendar "misaligned with the cascaded auctioning of capacities of different durations that cover the gas year with yearly capacity being auctioned in July". Finally, Acer proposed recalculating technical capacity "at least every two years", to reflect "evolving market circumstances" such as supply, demand and network planning. When assessing future flows for the purpose of recalculating technical capacity, TSOs should also consult network users and publish information on the process and its outcomes, Acer said. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southeast Asia risks missing 2025 renewables goal: Ace
Southeast Asia risks missing 2025 renewables goal: Ace
Singapore, 30 September (Argus) — Member countries of the association of southeast asian nations (Asean) could miss its 2025 renewable energy target, unless the region ensures the implementation of national renewable energy policies and power development plans, according to the Asean Centre for Energy (Ace). Asean aims for a 23pc share of renewable energy in its energy mix by 2025, but its share of renewable energy in 2022 was only 15.5pc, according to Ace's 8th Asean Energy Outlook 2023-2050 released on 26 September. Asean countries include Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. "It is challenging for Asean to achieve the remaining 7.4 percentage points within three years," according to the outlook. But if countries follow through on their renewable energy policies, the 23pc target could be reached by 2030, and the share of renewable energy could rise further to 38.1pc by 2050. The outlook sets out projections for the region based on different scenarios, using 2022 as the reference year. The baseline business-as-usual scenario assumes no interventions to meet existing national renewable energy targets and excludes plant capacity additions from power development plans. The Asean member states targets scenario (ATS) assumes the attainment of national policies for renewable targets with modelling interventions, and includes planned capacity additions. Installed power capacity in 2022 was still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which accounted for 66.4pc of the total energy mix. Asean has set a target of 35pc of renewable energy in installed capacity by 2025, and managed to achieve 33.6pc in 2022. The baseline scenario is expected to fall short of the target, reaching 34.1pc in 2025. But the ATS could surpass the target to reach 39.6pc by 2025, and 69.4pc in 2050. But energy financing still poses a challenge. The region faces huge power investment costs to develop the additional capacity required to meet demand. Power investment requirements over 2023-30 range between $20bn-56bn, while for 2041-50 this ranges from $28bn-371bn, according to the report. Fossil fuels to stay in the mix Southeast Asia's population and economic growth continue to rise, and the region's total energy consumption under the baseline scenario is expected to reach 1.1bn t of oil equivalent by 2050, more than doubling from 2022 levels. Fossil fuels will likely remain the primary source of energy, making up 76.1pc of total energy supply in 2050 under the baseline scenario, but under the ATS, this could be brought down to 63.4pc by 2050. Natural gas use is set to continue rising across all scenarios, as it is considered a bridging fuel in the energy transition, especially for the phase-out of coal. Gas can complement the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, stated the report. Under the baseline scenario, Asean is projected to become a net importer of natural gas by 2027 as production in the region is set to decline. But this increasing reliance on imports also raises concerns over energy security. An integrated gas market could help to boost energy security as it fosters interconnection networks, and competition would expand the gas pool, in turn lowering business costs and enhancing resource allocation efficiency, according to the report. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada to push for more climate cash as oil sands grow
Canada to push for more climate cash as oil sands grow
Calgary, 30 September (Argus) — Canada plans to advocate for more cash and accountability at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, but its record-high oil production and the threat of a general election might complicate its own climate ambitions. The resource-rich country will be pushing for greater financial commitments from Cop countries in November as they look to replace the current, but broadly recognised as inadequate, $100bn/yr target with a new finance goal for developing countries. Canada, like all developed countries, would not say how much it is willing to commit itself. But it favours broadening the goal's contributor base. "Public finance from a relatively small group of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet current needs," federal agency Environment and Climate Change Canada (EEEC) told Argus . The new goal will require "honest reflection". The country in negotiations mentioned the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and fossil fuel sector public financing as a mean to increase investments in energy transition sectors, but other key oil-producing countries disagree. Canada's government says it remains focused on the oil and gas industry and expects to see progress on Cop 28's commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. It became the first G20 country to release a framework targeting "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies last year, accelerating a 2009 commitment to phase out support for its largest source of emissions. This has not stopped investment in Alberta's oil sands from growing, but the federal government is looking to steer more cash towards clean initiatives such as clean hydrogen, clean electricity and carbon capture. The latter could represent a big business for Alberta's producers if subsidised generously. But it could also be a licence to push Canada's crude production beyond its 4.9mn b/d record set last year. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canada's oil and gas sector accounted for 33pc, or 217mn t, of the country's total in 2022, according to the National Inventory Report. Cutting them is critical to meet an overall goal of 403mn-439mn t by 2030, but the Office of the Auditor General of Canada says the country is only on track to lower them to 470mn t by that date. Domestic politics And Canada's climate ambitions might be at risk, with the Liberal minority government facing a general election no later than October 2025. Prime minister Justin Trudeau's popularity has dropped to the benefit of Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau has resisted calls from within his party to step down, while Conservatives prepare for what they call a "carbon tax election". They want to axe the federal carbon tax, tanker bans and regulatory burdens. They promote pipelines and energy independence using a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels, as part of a "gradual transition" to a low-carbon future, and say "the provinces should be free to develop their own climate change policies". Canada's 10 provinces hold jurisdiction over natural resources and that has posed a serious dilemma for the Liberals as they make climate promises on the international stage. Leading oil province Alberta will be sending a delegation to Cop to promote its own emissions-reduction strategies, and counter those of federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault, as the provincial government slams Ottawa's "punitive regulations" and says its climate policies are unrealistic. Trudeau's pursuit of winding down the oil sands was already tricky considering a state-owned pipeline is effectively subsidising the industry by C$8.7bn ($6.45bn), according to non-profit International Institute for Sustainable Development. Export capacity to the Pacific coast tripled to 890,000 b/d when the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion opened this year, underpinning growth plans for Canadian oil. By Brett Holmes Canada GHG emissions by sector Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's Shigeru Ishiba to be PM after winning LDP vote
Japan's Shigeru Ishiba to be PM after winning LDP vote
Osaka, 27 September (Argus) — Former Japanese Defense Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is set to replace Fumio Kishida as the country's new prime minister early next month. Ishiba's appointment is expected to restore public trust following a series of political scandals and continue the country's carbon-neutral policy, ensuring energy security and economic growth. Ishiba, 67, was elected as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 27 September, defeating economic security minister Sanae Takaichi by a narrow margin of 21 votes. He is expected to be confirmed as Japan's new prime minister on 1 October at a special session in parliament, where the LDP holds a majority. The new administration is likely to maintain the policies of the Kishida's administration, including those on diplomatic and energy issues. Kishida has updated the country's energy policies under his green transformation (GX) strategy, which aims to achieve the country's net-zero emissions goal by 2050, since he took office in October 2021. The GX approach has gained momentum, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which altered global commodity trade flows and prompted advanced economies to reevaluate their energy priorities. Kishida has focused on maximising nuclear and renewable energy while enhancing conventional fuel security. Industry groups, including the Japan Business Federation, have supported the GX strategy, hoping the new administration will maintain this energy policy. To further advance Kishida's GX policy, Ishiba has pledged to increase the development of the country's "rich" maritime resources in its vast territorial waters, aiming to make Japan more energy independent. This aligns with the country's push in March to explore national maritime resources to strengthen economic security. Ishiba also has a special focus on lesser-utilised renewable energies in Japan, such as geothermal and hydroelectric power. The country has not fully utilised their high potential, he told Argus during the presidential campaign on 6 September. Japan's power generation averaged 94GW in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, of which hydroelectric and geothermal output accounted for 10pc and 0.3pc respectively, according to data from the country's trade and industry ministry Meti. Ishiba's energy policy, which focuses on domestic resources, stems from his concern about the country's low energy self-sufficiency rate, which is just above 12pc. The rate is even lower than that of 1941 when the country entered World War II, Ishiba said, stressing that the country must make more efforts to raise the number. As a defense expert, Ishiba is advocating to establish an Asian version of Nato to enhance collective security within the region. But his long-standing policy is facing opposition because the idea requires the country to amend the constitution that prohibits collective security measures. By Motoko Hasegawa, Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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