Viewpoint: EU, UK mandates will drive global SAF demand

: Biofuels
24/12/20

Europe will be a primary consumption hub for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2025, driven by EU and UK mandates that come into effect in January. The mandates could push European SAF demand above 1.5mn t next year, according to Argus Consulting estimates.

There should be more than enough global SAF supply to meet mandated demand in Europe in the early stages of obligations. If all announced projects are completed on time, global capacity could surpass 10mn t/yr in 2025, according to Argus Consulting, with hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) still the dominant SAF production pathway.

But several projects have been hit with delays in the past, and some European majors have scaled back or paused their capacity plans. Actual production is likely to be far lower than nameplate capacity, with the International Air Transport Association (Iata) forecasting global output of 2.1mn t next year.

European suppliers may also opt to maximise hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production over HEFA-SPK. In most HEFA-SPK plants, the production process relies on first hydrotreating vegetable oils and fats, a process aligned with standard HVO production. Renewable diesel demand should increase with higher mandates for renewables in road transport and changes to German and Dutch carryover rules on renewable fuel tickets next year.

At the same time, European HVO imports face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO are expected to be imposed by February. And anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are in place on HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin. SAF is excluded from ADDs on Chinese biofuels.

SAF supply has grown at a faster pace than demand this year, pushing the northwest European HEFA-SPK premium to jet fuel to record lows. The European benchmark HEFA-SPK fob ARA range assessment averaged around $2,203/t over 1 January-12 December, down from around$3,016/t in the same period last year.

Ready, set, mandate

Fuel suppliers will need to incorporate a 2pc share of SAF in their annual EU jet fuel deliveries from next year, with the share rising to 70pc by 2050. Synthetic aviation fuels, such as e-kerosine and hydrogen, must reach a total share of 1.2pc from 2030, rising to 35pc in 2050.

The UK's mandate also requires aviation fuel suppliers to hit a 2pc SAF share in 2025, increasing linearly to reach 22pc in 2040. A UK obligation for power-to-liquid SAF will be introduced from 2028 at 0.2pc of total jet fuel demand, rising to 3.5pc in 2040.

Separately, London's Heathrow airport aims to increase the share of SAF used to 3pc in 2025 as part of an incentive scheme that helps airlines cover extra costs.

Beyond Europe

Progress to introduce SAF blending obligations or legislate consumption targets is slower outside of Europe. In China, a pilot programme was launched earlier this year to support domestic SAF uptake. A consumption target of 50,000t was set in the country's five-year plan for 2021-25.

Other initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region include South Korea's plan to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc SAF from 2027 and Singapore's 1pc SAF target by 2026 for flights departing the country. Indonesia plans to require 1pc SAF from 2027, while Malaysia and Hong Kong are also expected to set targets.

In the US, the level of priority to be given to renewable aviation fuels is less clear following Donald Trump's election victory. Guidance around a new producers' tax credit, set to come into effect next year, is still pending. The growth of the US SAF market has so far been driven mainly by federal and state financial incentives.

By Giulia Squadrin

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25/04/07

Flooding on US rivers mires barge transit

Houston, 7 April (Argus) — Barge transit slowed across the Arkansas, Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers over the weekend because of flooding, which prompted the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to close locks and issue transit restrictions along the waterways. The Corps advised all small craft to limit or halt transit on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MCKARNS) in Arkansas because flows reached above 200,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), nearly three times the high-water flow. The heavy flow is expected to persist throughout the week, posing risks to those transiting the river system, said the Corps. Some barges have halted movement on the river, temporarily miring fertilizer resupply efforts in Arkansas and Oklahoma in the middle of the urea application season. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday, and the National Weather Service predicts several locations along the MCKARNS will maintain a moderate to minor flood stage into Friday as well. Both the Arthur V Ormond Lock and the Toad Suck Ferry Lock, upriver from Little Rock, Arkansas, shut on 6 April because of the high flows. Flows along the Little Rock Corps district reached 271,600cfs on 7 April. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday. Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers The Corps restricted barge transit between Cincinnati, Ohio, and Cairo, Illinois, on the Ohio River to mitigate barge transportation risks, with the Corps closing two locks on the Ohio River on 6 April and potentially four more in the coming days. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) anticipates dock and fleeting operations will be suspended at certain locations along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers as a result of the flooding. NWS forecasters anticipate major flooding levels to persist through the following week. Barge carriers also expect a backlog of up to two weeks in the region. To alleviate flooding at Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers meet, the Corps increased water releases at the Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River and the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River. The Markland Lock, downriver from Cincinnati, Ohio, and the Newburgh lock near Owensboro, Kentucky, closed on 6 April. The Corps expects the full closure to remain until each location reaches its crest of nearly 57ft, which could occur on 8 or 9 April, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Around 50 vessels or more are waiting to transit each lock, according to the Lock Status Report published by the Corps on 7 April. The Corps also shut a chamber at both Cannelton and McAlpine locks. The John T Myers and Smithland locks may close on 7 April as well, the Corps said. The Olmsted Lock, the final lock before the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, will require a 3mph limit for any traffic passing through. The NWS expects roughly 10-15 inches of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys earlier this month, inducing severe flooding across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. A preliminary estimate from AccuWeather stated an estimated loss of $80-90bn in damages from the extreme flooding. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

USDA to release paused funds for higher biofuel blends

25/04/04

USDA to release paused funds for higher biofuel blends

New York, 4 April (Argus) — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said this week that the agency would release $537mn for 543 projects meant to expand infrastructure for higher biofuel blends, reviving many projects that were funded by former US president Joe Biden and then paused by the new administration. The grants will help support the installation of biofuel storage tanks and dispensers of higher ethanol blends, including E15 and E85, and higher biodiesel blends, including B20 and B99. They come from the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program, which started during US president Donald Trump's first term to help reduce the cost of installing biofuel infrastructure but was more recently expanded in scope with new funds from the Inflation Reduction Act. Project funding had been stalled after Trump pressed federal agencies to pause the disbursement of funds appropriated by that 2022 climate law. That directive affected projects due for funding under the higher blends program, including some approved in the final days of the Biden administration. Trump's efforts to freeze legislatively-approved funding is the subject of multiple court cases. USDA said that of the 543 projects approved for support, 188 projects — amounting to nearly $260mn of spending — were new commitments under the Trump administration. The largest of the new projects is a $14.3mn grant for QuikTrip to install E15 and B20 dispensers at 75 fueling stations across 13 states. More projects received funds in California than in any other state. USDA said releasing the funds — at the same time as various other government programs remain on hold — is part of its commitment to "aggressively exploring ways to unleash American energy and incentivize the production and use of homegrown US biofuels." Biofuel groups see potential for supportive policy under the Trump administration and lobbied US officials at a meeting this week for a steep increase in biomass-based diesel blend mandates. Ethanol lobbyists are privately optimistic too that the administration will soon start issuing emergency waivers to bypass typical summertime limits on nationwide E15 access. Support for biofuels is one way the Trump administration could reduce the toll on US farmers from an increasingly volatile trade war that threatens to cut off export markets for US corn and soy. USDA noted that the higher blends program, by allowing for more ethanol and biodiesel consumption, "protects American farmers from retaliatory trade practices." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indústria de SAF no Brasil deve decolar em 2027

25/04/04

Indústria de SAF no Brasil deve decolar em 2027

Sao Paulo, 4 April (Argus) — A indústria de aviação brasileira está atenta às regulações para o combustível sustentável de aviação (SAF, na sigla em inglês), enquanto o mercado doméstico aguarda o início da produção local para cumprir com o plano de mandato de mescla e com o potencial de exportação. A Lei do Combustível do Futuro visa aumentar as mesclas obrigatórias de biocombustíveis para reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEEs) em voos domésticos no período de dez anos, a começar por 2027. O Brasil se comprometeu a aplicar um mandato de 10pc de SAF até 2037. Os esforços do país para implementar o mandato de SAF estão alinhados às diretrizes do Esquema para Compensação e Redução de Carbono para a Aviação Internacional (Corsia, na sigla em inglês), da Organização da Aviação Civil Internacional (ICAO, na sigla em inglês), que prevê a redução de emissões de GEEs em voos internacionais. O programa determina duas fases até a implementação integral das metas de redução, pensando em uma adaptação mais eficiente das companhias aéreas e dos produtores. As companhias aéreas podem aderir voluntariamente ao programa entre 2024-26. As metas compulsórias globais são implementadas entre 2027-2035, o que incentiva o uso de SAF e a compensação de créditos de carbono. A fase obrigatória abrange todos os voos internacionais, incluindo aqueles com embarque e desembarque em países não-voluntários, exceto os considerados menos desenvolvidos e os de baixa participação no tráfego aéreo global. O SAF brasileiro é uma indústria recém-nascida com potencial para oferta de insumos , principalmente as rotas de produção envolvendo óleo de soja, etanol de milho e de cana-de-açúcar, bem como largas terras agrícolas destinadas à produção de biomassa sem a prática de mudança do uso da terra (MUT). Essa variabilidade também abre espaço para novos projetos que reutilizam terras degradadas e áreas agrícolas existentes em conformidade com os critérios de sustentabilidade da ICAO relacionados ao uso de terra e ao aprimoramento do solo. A inserção do SAF no Brasil enfrenta obstáculos econômicos à medida que a alta volatilidade do mercado pesa sobre os investimentos de longo prazo, disse o consultor da A&M Infra, Filipe Bonaldo. Segundo o consultor, a agenda política não afetará a transição energética no país como aconteceu nos Estados Unidos sob o governo do presidente Donald Trump, uma vez que a economia do Brasil depende fortemente da agricultura e as regulações do mercado são otimistas. Como uma potência agrícola, o Brasil oferece produção de baixo custo e múltiplas fontes para suprir as demandas internas e externas. O Brasil é o terceiro maior exportador global nos mercados agrícola e pecuário, liderando os segmentos da soja, suco de laranja e de carne, de acordo com a Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil (CAN). Estreia no Rio A Vibra foi a primeira distribuidora a oferecer SAF no Brasil, antes da mescla obrigatória entrar em vigor. A empresa importou 550m³ de SAF produzido a partir de óleo de cozinha usado (UCO, na sigla em inglês), a partir da Bélgica, em janeiro. O biocombustível está disponível para venda nas instalações da Vibra no aeroporto internacional do Rio de Janeiro após dez meses de operações logísticas. A Certificação Internacional de Sustentabilidade e Carbono (ISCC, na sigla em inglês) assegurou a validade de todas as etapas, desde a cadeia de suprimento do produto até a distribuição. A Vibra opera em mais de 90 aeroportos no território brasileiro e representa 60pc da participação de mercado da aviação nacional através da subsidiária BR Aviation, disse o vice-presidente executivo de operações, Marcelo Bragança. Por que tanta demora? Por muito tempo, o setor teve dúvidas quanto à viabilidade técnica do uso de biocombustíveis na aviação, especialmente quanto à segurança, disse a gerente de meio-ambiente e transição energética da Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (Anac), Marcela Anselmi. A Anac e a Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) seguem as regulações internacionais para o SAF ao exigirem que o biocombustível apresente semelhanças físico-químicas com o combustível fóssil de aviação para garantir a segurança das operações aéreas. Ainda não é possível usar 100pc de SAF nos motores de aeronaves, disse Anselmi. Há um limite de 50pc de mescla que inibe a adesão ao redor do mundo, considerando as restrições técnicas que ainda precisam ser superadas. O compromisso recente com as pautas de transição energética está incentivando a oferta de biomassa para a aviação, bem como aos modais rodoviário e marítimo, o que exige novas rotas de produção. Por exemplo, a rota alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) converte etanol em SAF, o que pode ser caro para instalar e implica alto investimento em bens de capitais. No contexto global, o Brasil está na vanguarda da pauta SAF, considerando que a Europa e os EUA publicaram legislações relacionadas à produção e ao consumo somente nos últimos dois anos, apontou Anselmi. Enquanto isso, a capacidade projetada de produção de SAF na América do Sul pode chegar a 1.100 m³/ano em 2030, de acordo com a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE). Por João Curi Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports

25/04/03

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports

New York, 3 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a collection of charges amounting to a possible 69.5pc tax on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Diamond Green Diesel operates Gulf Coast biorefineries in foreign-trade zones, which allow companies to avoid tariffs on foreign inputs for products that are ultimately exported. Biofuel producers in these zones could theoretically refine foreign tallow, claim a 45Z subsidy, and avoid feedstock tariffs as long as they ship the fuel abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

25/04/03

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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