Landmark legal opinion on climate expected in 2025

: Emissions
25/01/03

The ICJ guidance will inform the growing number of national and international climate cases, writes Georgia Gratton

Last year saw historic outcomes in international legal cases centred on climate change, from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to the world's highest court for marine protection, Itlos. And 2025 could see more, as the visible impacts of a heating planet increase.

The UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) is expected to reach an outcome in 2025 that is likely be a "watershed moment for international climate governance", think-tank IISD's Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB) says. Hearings for the ICJ proceedings wrapped up in mid-December. The court — which all 193 UN member states are party to — will issue an advisory opinion on states' responsibilities with regard to climate change. ICJ advisory opinions are not legally binding, but the outcome will "serve as definitive guidance from the world's highest court", environment organisation ClientEarth lawyer Lea Main-Klingst tells Argus.

The issue under consideration at the ICJ was originally spearheaded by the small island state of Vanuatu, and led to a UN General Assembly request for the ICJ's advisory opinion on states' obligation to "ensure the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for states and for present and future generations". It also seeks the ICJ's opinion on the legal consequences for states when they "by their acts and omissions, have caused significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment".

Countries gave verbal evidence outside the negotiating blocs typically seen at forums such as Cop climate summits, meaning countries "were free to articulate their own positions, often with surprising divergences from other speakers in the same negotiating group", according to ENB. Countries and some organisations will also be able to submit written evidence on topics including fossil fuel production and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Case study

The ICJ proceedings "will be very relevant to all climate-related cases both at the domestic and international level — and the number of these cases is only growing", Main-Klingst says. The ECHR ruled in April that signatories to the European Convention on Human Rights must protect their citizens from "serious adverse effects of climate change". And the Itlos outcome in May — another advisory opinion — was similar, finding that states have an obligation to reduce their GHG emissions to protect oceans.

The UK could prove to be a case study. The country's Supreme Court ruled in June — days before the current Labour government took power — that consent for an oil development in southern England was unlawful as it had not taken into account downstream emissions. The new government had already pledged to issue no new oil and gas permits, but it has since used the ruling to kick-start an overhaul of environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, which could have implications for previously approved developments.

The damage caused by climate change is growing, making it more crucial to settle legal parameters. Scientists are in agreement that 2024 will be the hottest on record, smashing the current record set in 2023. And insured losses from natural catastrophes — proven to be made more intense by climate change — easily broke the $100bn mark in 2024, for a fifth consecutive year, reinsurance firm Swiss Re says. This does not take into account the scale of uninsured assets, which are often in the most vulnerable countries. These factors put further pressure on international courts to clarify and set expectations on an issue that is not confined to national borders.

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25/04/09

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

Washington, 9 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition. Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level. The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal. It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump. Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative. "The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done." DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative. Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization. "Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said. A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German coalition eyes 'limited' foreign carbon credits

25/04/09

German coalition eyes 'limited' foreign carbon credits

Berlin, 9 April (Argus) — The parties likely to form Germany's next government today presented their coalition treaty, which pledges to allow the use of foreign carbon credits to reach the country's 2040 climate target. The treaty, presented in Berlin by the four party leaders Friedrich Merz of the CDU — the likely next federal chancellor — Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken of the SPD, and Markus Soeder of the CDU's Bavarian sister party CSU, stresses the parties' commitment to German and European climate targets, the Paris climate agreement, and reaching climate neutrality in Germany by 2045 "by combining climate action, economic competitiveness and social balance, and by focusing on innovation". "We want to remain an industrialised country and become climate neutral," the treaty reads. The parties' support for the EU's suggested interim target to reduce its emissions 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990 levels is conditional on two points. Germany must not be expected to go beyond its 88pc reduction target for 2040 enshrined in the country's climate action law. And its companies must be allowed, with a view to reducing their residual emissions in an "economically viable" way, to resort to "permanent and sustainable negative emissions", and to "credible CO2 reduction through highly qualified, certified and permanent projects" in "non-European partner countries". Making use of the latter activities should be permissible for up to three percentage points of the 2040 reduction target, although the "priority" for companies will be to reduce carbon emissions. And allowing these options must be reflected in the European Climate Law and the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the parties stipulate. The treaty also underlines the importance of "effective" carbon leakage protection to preserve Germany's "industrial value creation". The treaty calls for the European Green Deal and Clean Industrial Act to be further developed to "bring competitiveness and climate action together", and stresses the importance of carbon pricing instruments, which more countries should be persuaded to introduce. The parties also flag the importance of social acceptance, advocating an "economically viable price development" and pledging to ensure the smooth transition of Germany's domestic carbon price for the heating and transport sectors into the EU ETS 2 on the latter's launch in 2027. The parties pledge "immediately" to adopt a legislative package that enables carbon capture, transport, use and storage (CCU/CCS), particularly for industrial emissions that are difficult to avoid, and also for gas-fired power plants — a disputed issue within the SPD, and the reason why CCS legislation did not pass under the outgoing SPD-Green-led federal government. The new government said it will legally enshrine the "overriding public interest" of the construction of CCS infrastructure, as well as pledging to give the "highest priority" to ratifying the [amendment to the] London Protocol, allowing cross-border CO2 transportation, and to enter bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries on storing carbon. The new government will enable CO2 storage offshore in Germany's exclusive economic zone and the North Sea, as well as onshore where geologically suitable and accepted. The parties see direct air capture as a "possible" future technology to "leverage negative emissions". By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight

25/04/08

US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight

Washington, 8 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing the EU's upcoming tariff on carbon-intensive imports as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justified a tariff response. Trump has said a 20pc tariff on most EU goods and a higher tariff on many other key trading partners — set to take effect after midnight — are "reciprocal" to other countries' tariffs and non-tariff barriers, even though those tariffs are calculated based on each country's trade deficits and imports with the US. Trump has yet to even identify which trade policies he wants other countries to change before he would withdraw tariffs his administration expects will raise $600bn/yr in new revenue. But the US Trade Representative's office, in a social media post on Monday made in "honor" of Trump's tariffs, identified the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — which will collect a carbon-based levy on imports such as steel, cement and fertilizer — as one of the examples of what it sees as an unfair trading practice. The Trump administration estimates $4.7bn/yr of US exports would be affected by the CBAM, which is set to take effect in 2026. "These EU regulations undermine fair competition, penalizing US companies while providing advantages to EU-based competitors," the US Trade Representative's office wrote in a series of posts on Tuesday that also criticized India and Thailand for imposing import restrictions on ethanol produced in the US. White House officials say more than 70 countries have approached the administration seeking deals on the tariffs since they were announced nearly a week ago. But with just hours before the tariffs take effect, Trump has yet to announce any definitive agreements to withdraw the tariffs. Instead, he has rejected offers from countries to zero out some of their tariffs. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Monday said the EU was "ready to negotiate" on tariffs, and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agreed to do the same. But Trump on Monday said that offer was not enough. "We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn, and it's gonna disappear fast," Trump said. "One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they're gonna have to buy our energy from us." Today, Trump said he had a "great call" with South Korea's acting president Han Duck-soo that created the "probability of a great DEAL for both countries." Trump cited a potential agreement that might include large-scale purchases of US LNG and investments tied to the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project. Trump and his cabinet believe the tariffs will align with a goal to achieve "energy dominance" and increase the amount of US energy exported abroad. "At the end of the day, we're going to have growing American exports and reindustrialize the country," US energy secretary Chris Wright said today during an interview on CNBC. Trump's tariffs have already caused a selloff in equities and, according to many analysts on Wall Street, a higher likelihood of a recession. Oil prices have dropped because of a "sudden change in the economic outlook, whereas everyone just honestly 10 days ago was expecting modest but steady positive growth in the US", non-profit group Center for Strategic and International Studies' senior fellow Clayton Seigle said today. Republicans have largely backed Trump in his imposition of tariffs, with the hope the tariffs will be lifted as part of trade negotiations. But some Republicans have started criticizing the rationale for the tariff policy. "Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?" US senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said in a hearing today with the US trade representative Jamieson Greer. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore, Chile sign Article 6 carbon credit deal

25/04/08

Singapore, Chile sign Article 6 carbon credit deal

Singapore, 8 April (Argus) — Singapore and Chile signed an implementation agreement on 7 April to collaborate on carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The countries will begin the ratification process and operationalise the agreement following the signing, according to Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The collaboration will involve financing towards unlocking additional mitigation potential in Chile, and "will help Singapore to meet our climate target while bringing climate investments into Chile," said Singapore's minister for sustainability and the environment, Grace Fu. The implementation agreement sets up a framework for the generation and transfer of carbon credits from carbon mitigation projects under Article 6. More information on the authorisation process for the carbon credit projects and eligible carbon crediting methodologies will be published in due course, according to the MTI. Carbon credits traded under Article 6 count towards the buyer's nationally determined contribution (NDC). Singapore submitted its new emissions reduction target in February, aiming to reduce emissions to 45mn-50mn t of CO2 equivalent in 2035 as part of its NDC. This is Singapore's second deal with a Latin American country, following an agreement signed on 1 April with Peru . Singapore has signed similar agreements with Papua New Guinea, Ghana and Bhutan. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil companies far from Paris accord alignment: Report

25/04/08

Oil companies far from Paris accord alignment: Report

London, 8 April (Argus) — None of the 30 oil and gas producers assessed are close to being in line with Paris climate agreement targets "and some have regressed", a report from think-tank Carbon Tracker found today. Carbon Tracker flagged "backsliding, particularly around oil and gas production plans" from the producers assessed in its report, Paris Maligned III . The think-tank assessed 30 of the largest producers — a mixture of corporations and national oil companies — against six metrics. These included production plans, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and methane reduction targets. It did not assess producers based in countries subject to international sanctions. "Almost all producers are planning to increase oil and gas production in the coming years… Such growth plans are at odds with the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C target and many are incompatible with a below 2˚C scenario", the report found. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — seen as the overarching consensus on climate science — notes that a substantial reduction in fossil fuels is needed in order to reach climate goals. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the rise in global temperatures to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C. The only producers assessed that are not planning to increase production are London-listed independent Harbour Energy and Spain's Repsol, Carbon Tracker found. Carbon Tracker ranked Repsol highest overall for alignment with Paris agreement goals and Harbour Energy in second place. European companies were ranked more highly in line with Paris goals, with seven of the top 10 places. Three state-owned oil companies — Mexico's Pemex, Algeria's Sonatrach and Kuwait's KPC — and US firms ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips took the five lowest places in the ranking table. "Despite some political and market headwinds, investor engagement on climate risk remains strong, particularly in Europe", the report noted. Carbon Tracker this year scored companies on the extent to which they planned to cut methane emissions — specifically "near-zero methane by 2030" across upstream activities and "midstream gas assets where applicable", it said. This is in line with the decarbonisation charter which many of the companies assessed signed up to at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in December 2023. Companies' methane reduction plans "are typically more climate-aligned than their overall GHG targets", the report found. But "there is still considerable room for improvement because significant sources of methane emissions are overlooked", it added. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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