25/02/26
UK should cut emissions by 87pc over 1990-2040: CCC
London, 26 February (Argus) — The UK advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has
outlined a "feasible" pathway towards a 87pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 2040 for the country, from a 1990 baseline. This is "an ambitious
target", but it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly", the committee
said today. Electrification and "low-carbon" electricity generation would make
up 60pc of the emission reduction. The CCC recommends a level of 535mn t/CO2
equivalent (CO2e) for the UK's seventh carbon budget, over 2038-42, including
emissions from international aviation and shipping. A carbon budget is a cap on
emissions over a certain period. They are legally binding in the UK, with the
CCC required to advise the government on the levels outlined. The energy
transition "will make the UK economy more resilient, by reducing dependence on
volatile international fossil fuel markets", the CCC said. It sees net energy
imports falling from 867TWh in 2025 to 202TWh in 2050, with the cost of
achieving net zero emissions at around 0.2pc of UK GDP annually on average.
Upfront investments will lead to savings, it said. The CCC expects the private
sector to contribute much of the investment needed, but noted that "policy is
needed to provide confidence". Ramping up renewables "UK-based renewable energy
provides the bulk of generation in a larger, future electricity system", the
committee said. Its pathway envisages a six-fold increase in offshore wind, to
88GW of capacity in 2040 from 15GW in 2023, while onshore wind and solar power
capacity reach 32GW and 82GW, respectively, by 2040. It notes the need for
nuclear power, energy storage and grid upgrades. The committee also maps a
scenario where the industrial sector — often high-emitting and difficult to
decarbonise — uses electricity to meet 61pc of its energy demand, "up from
around 26pc today". This would allow "UK manufacturers to benefit from global
demand for low-carbon goods", the CCC said. For shipping and aviation, the CCC
sees a role for "low-carbon fuels", including hydrogen and bioenergy. But the
latter is "constrained by the availability of sustainable sources", while the
use of hydrogen is limited, the committee said. The fuel has no role in heating
buildings and "only a very niche, if any, role in surface transport". Carbon
removals plays a role in emission reduction, but carbon capture and storage
(CCS) "is limited to sectors where there are few, or no, alternatives". CCS
could be used in industrial sectors or alongside hydrogen, it noted. The CCC saw
a role for bioenergy with CCS, and direct air capture, although all carbon
capture technology would require developing CO2 transport and storage
infrastructure and finalise business models, it said. It also flagged the need
for nature-based carbon sequestration, such as new woodlands and peatland
restoration. The proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) significantly increases
in the committee's pathway, to three-quarters of cars and vans and almost
two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles being electric by 2040 — up from 2.8pc of
cars and 1.4pc of vans in 2023. The falling cost of batteries will allow EVs "to
reach price parity with comparable [gasoline] and diesel cars between 2026 and
2028", the CCC said. The pathway has around half of UK homes using heat pumps by
2040, from 1pc in 2023. The UK government must now propose, by 30 June 2026, a
level for the seventh carbon budget, which parliament will then approve or
reject. The government has in recent months stuck to CCC advice, setting out a
national climate plan which pledged an 81pc emissions cut by 2035 , in line with
CCC recommendations. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more
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