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Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

  • : Biofuels, Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 25/02/13

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump.

President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities.

The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address.

"They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House.

As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented.

"Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said.

So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures.

The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said.

The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war.

In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified.

The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said.

Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down."

The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it.

Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March.

The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies.

The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade.

Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan.


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25/03/28

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US consumer confidence down on policy angst


25/03/28
25/03/28

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update


25/03/28
25/03/28

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

Adds comment from the European Commission London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud. "We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said. By John Houghton-Brown, Simone Burgin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict


25/03/28
25/03/28

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict

London, 28 March (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) has begun an inquiry into whether the country's airport capacity expansion could be achieved in line with its climate and environment targets. "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions, and on the face of it, any expansion in the sector will make net zero even more elusive," EAC chair Toby Perkins said. Any expansions must meet strict climate and environment commitments, the UK government has said. The government in January expressed support for a third runway at London's Heathrow airport — the country's largest. UK transport minister Heidi Alexander said in February that she was "minded to approve" an expansion at London's Gatwick airport, ahead of a final decision in October. The expansion would involve Gatwick making its northern runway operational. It is currently only used as a back-up option. The government is also "contemplating decisions on airport expansion projects at London Luton… and on the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield," Perkins said. "It is possible — but very difficult — for the airport expansion programme to be consistent with environmental goals," Perkins said. "We look forward to exploring how the government believes this can be achieved." The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Its carbon budgets — a cap on emissions over a certain period — are also legally binding. The government must this year set levels for the UK's seventh carbon budget , which will cover the period 2038-42. The committee has invited written submissions on the possible airport expansions and net zero, with a deadline of 24 April. It will report in the autumn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition


25/03/28
25/03/28

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. There has been no official statement from the European Commission but market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. By John Houghton-Brown and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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