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Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

  • Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 13/02/25

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump.

President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities.

The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address.

"They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House.

As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented.

"Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said.

So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures.

The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said.

The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war.

In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified.

The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said.

Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down."

The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it.

Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March.

The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies.

The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade.

Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan.


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28/03/25

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

Adds comment from the European Commission London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud. "We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said. By John Houghton-Brown, Simone Burgin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict

London, 28 March (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) has begun an inquiry into whether the country's airport capacity expansion could be achieved in line with its climate and environment targets. "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions, and on the face of it, any expansion in the sector will make net zero even more elusive," EAC chair Toby Perkins said. Any expansions must meet strict climate and environment commitments, the UK government has said. The government in January expressed support for a third runway at London's Heathrow airport — the country's largest. UK transport minister Heidi Alexander said in February that she was "minded to approve" an expansion at London's Gatwick airport, ahead of a final decision in October. The expansion would involve Gatwick making its northern runway operational. It is currently only used as a back-up option. The government is also "contemplating decisions on airport expansion projects at London Luton… and on the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield," Perkins said. "It is possible — but very difficult — for the airport expansion programme to be consistent with environmental goals," Perkins said. "We look forward to exploring how the government believes this can be achieved." The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Its carbon budgets — a cap on emissions over a certain period — are also legally binding. The government must this year set levels for the UK's seventh carbon budget , which will cover the period 2038-42. The committee has invited written submissions on the possible airport expansions and net zero, with a deadline of 24 April. It will report in the autumn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. There has been no official statement from the European Commission but market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. By John Houghton-Brown and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Oil, biofuel groups meet to align on RFS policy


27/03/25
News
27/03/25

Oil, biofuel groups meet to align on RFS policy

New York, 27 March (Argus) — Energy and farm groups met last week at the American Petroleum Institute to negotiate a joint request for President Donald Trump's administration as it develops new biofuel blend mandates, according to five people familiar with the matter. The private meeting involved groups from across the supply chain, including representatives of feedstock suppliers, biofuel producers, fuel marketers, and oil refiners with Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligations. The groups coordinated earlier this year around a letter to the Trump administration on the need to update the RFS and are now seeking agreement on other program elements. According to the people familiar with the matter, the groups agree on pushing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set higher blend mandates under the program's D4 biomass-based diesel and D5 advanced biofuel categories. Groups support slightly different volume targets that are nevertheless all in "a rounding number of each other" in the D4 category, according to one lobbyist. But there is still disagreement about whether to ramp up mandates quickly in 2026 or provide a longer runway to higher volumes. Clean Fuels Alliance America and farm groups have publicly supported a biomass-based diesel mandate of at least 5.25bn USG starting next year, which could justify a broader advanced biofuel mandate above 9bn USG, according to the people familiar, though others worry about fuel cost impacts if mandates spike so quickly. The current mandate for 2025 is 7.33bn USG in the advanced biofuels category, including a 3.35bn USG mandate for the biomass-based diesel subcategory, so the volumes being pushed for future years would be a steep increase. The RFS, highly influential for fuel and commodity crop prices, requires oil refiners and importers to blend annual amounts of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those who do. The idea behind the groups' coordination is that the Trump administration might more quickly finalize RFS updates if lobbyists with a history of sparring over biofuel policy can articulate a shared vision of the program's future. One person familiar said the effort comes after the Trump administration directed industry to align biofuel policy goals, though others said they understood the coordination as largely voluntary. EPA did not provide comment. There is less agreement around the program's D6 conventional biofuel category, which is mostly met by corn ethanol. Oil groups have in the past criticized EPA for setting the implied D6 mandate at 15bn USG, above the amount of ethanol that can feasibly be blended into gasoline, though excess biofuels from lower-carbon categories can be used to meet conventional obligations. Ethanol interests support setting the D6 mandate even higher than 15bn USG, which could be a tough sell. The discussions to date have not involved targets for D3 cellulosic biofuels, a relatively small part of the program. A proposal to lower 2024 volumes has hurt D3 credit prices, signaling that future mandates are effectively optional, according to frustrated biogas executives , and has reduced the salience of the issue for other groups. A proposal from President Joe Biden's administration to create a new category called "eRINs" to credit biogas used to power electric vehicles has similarly not come up. "We're not expecting to see any attempt to include eRINs in this next [RFS] proposal," Renewable Fuels Association president Geoff Cooper told Argus earlier this month. The meeting last week was largely oriented around the RFS, though a National Association of Truck Stop Operators representative raised the issue of tax policy too. The group has been frustrated by the expiration of a long-running blenders credit and the introduction this year of a less generous credit for refiners, which is only partially implemented and has spurred a sharp decline in biomass-based diesel production. But others involved in negotiations, while they acknowledge tax uncertainty could hurt their case for strong mandates, are trying to avoid contentious topics and focus mostly on volumes. Republican lawmakers are separately weighing whether to keep, repeal, or adjust that credit to help out fuel from domestic crops, and there is no telling how long that debate might take to resolve. Another thorny issue discussed at the meeting is RFS exemptions for small refineries. Biofuel producers strongly oppose such waivers and say that exempted volumes should at least be reallocated among facilities that still have obligations. Oil groups have their own views, though it is unclear how involved the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — which represents some small refiners and has generally been more critical of the RFS than the American Petroleum Institute — are in discussions. EPA is aiming to finalize new volume mandates by the end of this year , people familiar with the administration's thinking have said, though timing for a proposal is still unclear. Future conversations among energy and farm groups to solidify points of unity — and strategize around how to downplay disagreements — are likely, lobbyists said. RIN prices rally Speculation over the trajectory of the RFS, and the potential for higher future volumes, supported soybean oil futures and widened the bean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread. The BOHO spread maintains a positive correlation with D4 RIN prices as a widening value raises demand for D4 credits as biofuel producers look to offset higher production costs. Thursday's session ended with current-year ethanol D6 credits valued between 79¢/RIN and 82¢/RIN, while their D4 counterparts held at a premium and closed with a range of 84¢/RIN to 89¢/RIN. These gains each measured more than 5.5pc growth relative to Wednesday's values. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US mulls cutting funds to H2 hubs outside of GOP states


27/03/25
News
27/03/25

US mulls cutting funds to H2 hubs outside of GOP states

Houston, 27 March (Argus) — The US Department of Energy (DOE) is considering cutting funding to hydrogen hubs that are located in primarily Democratic states, while sparing those mostly spread across Republican states, according to a list shared with Argus . A table circulating among officials shows hubs that are to receive federal funding labeled as either "cut" or "keep." Out of the seven hubs, only three are set to "keep": HyVelocity, in Texas and Louisiana, the Appalachian hub spanning Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia and the Heartland hub spread across Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. The hubs that may lose federal support include California's ARCHES; the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Association (PNWH2) spanning Oregon, Washington and Montana; the Midwest hub encompassing Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, and the Mid-Atlantic hub in Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey. With the exception of the Midwest hub, most of the hubs facing potential cuts would use renewable and nuclear power to produce hydrogen. Most of the projects in the hubs on the "keep" list would be powered by natural gas and use carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities to reduce emissions. The DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association (FCHEA) chief executive Frank Wolak said the list came from DOE but cautioned the department's plans are still unclear."We're aware a list has been created that shows four of seven hubs being cut," said Wolak. "We haven't seen anything formal and don't understand exactly what is the DOE intention." Hydrogen hub funding advanced by the administration of former president Joe Biden was expected to come under scrutiny after President Donald Trump paused disbursements and ordered a review of clean-energy initiatives. Federal funding for the hubs grew out of the bipartisan Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act, which together dedicated $8bn to jump start domestic hydrogen production in industrial clusters from the east to west coasts. The funding was structured to pay out to the hubs over four phases spanning a decade, with disbursements dependent upon projects meeting defined objectives related to operational progress and private-investment commitments. The first tranches to the seven hubs, totaling over $20mn, have been delivered but the list of potential cuts puts the fate of the second phase into doubt. "So far the Trump administration hasn't attempted to claw back that phase-one funding," said Sara Gersen, senior attorney for Earthjustice. "The question is, what happens in 2026 when they try to renew contracts for phase 2?" ARCHES chief executive Angelina Galiteva said the California hub "remains committed to working with our partners to establish a secure, reliable and competitive hydrogen ecosystem". Spokespeople for the others hubs vulnerable to losing federal funds did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, at least one of the hubs put out a public statement highlighting how its goals align with the administration's objectives. "Many of these opportunities will support rural communities" and "advance American energy independence", the Pacific Northwest hub said in a social media post. Environmental advocates argue that the climate benefits from hydrogen originating from natural gas with CCS, the technology proposed for projects on the "keep" list, evaporate when net emissions are taken into account and do not justify the potentially billions of dollars in federal support they may receive when compared to other decarbonization techniques. "Spending billions of dollars on untested carbon capture technology in applications with no net-climate benefit is a waste of taxpayer money," said Anika Juhn, IEEFA energy data analyst and co-author of the report Blue Hydrogen's Carbon Capture Boondogle . "Building out renewable power infrastructure, improving energy efficiency, and reducing methane leakage from the natural gas system are more cost-effective and proven approaches to a clean energy transition." For now, both fossil-fuel based and renewable energy companies have been lobbying the Trump administration to keep clean energy incentives enacted by the IRA without differentiating how the hydrogen is produced. The potential cut to federal funding is not expected to affect industry support for the most lucrative incentives that come in the form of tax cuts, such as the support that has coalesced around protecting the 45V hydrogen production credit, said Wolak. "I don't see any change to the agenda of 45V, that effort is primary," said Wolak. "I see an effort perhaps arising to define the hubs and the merit of the hubs rising parallel to the 45V effort." FCHEA is advising its members that may be affected by hub funding cuts to contact their congressional representatives, Wolak said. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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