India ends fertilizer year with 1.3mn t in DAP stocks

: Fertilizers
25/04/03

Low offtake in the first quarter of 2025 allowed Indian DAP stocks to build to about 1.3mn t by the end of the fertilizer year in March, but lower production and imports have put a ceiling to stock building, according to provisional data.

DAP reserves began this month at 1.29mn t, with provisional offtake, production and import data suggesting a stock drawdown — production plus imports minus sales — of 12,000t on the month. Provisional March DAP offtake totalled 280,000t, bringing offtake this quarter to 978,000t, well below the 1.4mn t/yr average in 2021-24. In the fertilizer year spanning April 2024-March 2025, national offtake totalled 9.3mn t, compared with 10.8mn t in the previous year. A lack of DAP availability across parts of India, spurred by low imports and domestic production, has supported interest in NPKs.

Domestic DAP output in March totalled 118,000t, reaching 3.76mn t in April 2024-March 2025. This is below the 4.2mn t/yr average in April 2020-March 2024.

And March DAP imports totalled 150,000t, with 4.7mn t imported over April 2024-March 2025, line-up data show. This is well below the 5.6mn t/yr average in April 2020-March 2024.

DAP importers and producers using phosphoric acid faced negative margins in most of the fertilizer year, given the maximum retail price, nutrient-based subsidy, exchange rates and market cfr prices for DAP and raw materials. This drove private-sector importers out of the market and encouraged producers using imported phosphoric acid to focus their output on NPKs, which gave better margins.

Importers appear to have been dissuaded by high international DAP cfr prices in particular. The Indian DAP assessment peaked in October — during the high buying season — at $643/t cfr on a midpoint basis, remaining below $600/t cfr a year before. And prices were prevented from slipping in the off-season, supported by the absence of Chinese DAP exports and Ethiopia's switch to DAP imports from NPS. The assessed range has firmed in recent weeks, with Saudi Arabian producer Ma'aden selling 50,000t of DAP to an Indian importer in the high $640s/t cfr for loading in early April. DAP offers are now as high as $660/t cfr.

DAP stocks are now well below a comfortable 2mn t, and India will have to keep building reserves in its off-season before farmers' demand picks up around the middle of the year.

The Indian government at the end of March raised the nutrient-based subsidy for phosphates for the kharif season by 42pc. At current market prices, DAP importers' margins will remain negative. The government will probably continue to compensate importers for losses on DAP, but there is no indication that Indian DAP producers will receive compensation for losses.

By Adrien Seewald

Indian DAP stocks and sales '000t

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25/04/07

Flooding on US rivers mires barge transit

Houston, 7 April (Argus) — Barge transit slowed across the Arkansas, Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers over the weekend because of flooding, which prompted the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to close locks and issue transit restrictions along the waterways. The Corps advised all small craft to limit or halt transit on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MCKARNS) in Arkansas because flows reached above 200,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), nearly three times the high-water flow. The heavy flow is expected to persist throughout the week, posing risks to those transiting the river system, said the Corps. Some barges have halted movement on the river, temporarily miring fertilizer resupply efforts in Arkansas and Oklahoma in the middle of the urea application season. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday, and the National Weather Service predicts several locations along the MCKARNS will maintain a moderate to minor flood stage into Friday as well. Both the Arthur V Ormond Lock and the Toad Suck Ferry Lock, upriver from Little Rock, Arkansas, shut on 6 April because of the high flows. Flows along the Little Rock Corps district reached 271,600cfs on 7 April. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday. Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers The Corps restricted barge transit between Cincinnati, Ohio, and Cairo, Illinois, on the Ohio River to mitigate barge transportation risks, with the Corps closing two locks on the Ohio River on 6 April and potentially four more in the coming days. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) anticipates dock and fleeting operations will be suspended at certain locations along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers as a result of the flooding. NWS forecasters anticipate major flooding levels to persist through the following week. Barge carriers also expect a backlog of up to two weeks in the region. To alleviate flooding at Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers meet, the Corps increased water releases at the Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River and the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River. The Markland Lock, downriver from Cincinnati, Ohio, and the Newburgh lock near Owensboro, Kentucky, closed on 6 April. The Corps expects the full closure to remain until each location reaches its crest of nearly 57ft, which could occur on 8 or 9 April, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Around 50 vessels or more are waiting to transit each lock, according to the Lock Status Report published by the Corps on 7 April. The Corps also shut a chamber at both Cannelton and McAlpine locks. The John T Myers and Smithland locks may close on 7 April as well, the Corps said. The Olmsted Lock, the final lock before the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, will require a 3mph limit for any traffic passing through. The NWS expects roughly 10-15 inches of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys earlier this month, inducing severe flooding across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. A preliminary estimate from AccuWeather stated an estimated loss of $80-90bn in damages from the extreme flooding. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

25/04/03

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

25/04/03

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian DAP subsidy increase falls short

25/04/03

Indian DAP subsidy increase falls short

London, 3 April (Argus) — Rebuilding India's DAP inventories remains an uphill struggle as the latest subsidies and current market prices keep importers' and many producers' margins in the red, despite a rise in the subsidy. India will have to keep relying on NPKs/NPs to cover much of its phosphate needs. The Indian government has set the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for DAP for the April-September kharif season at 27,799 rupees/t. This is an increase of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for the October-March rabi season. The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price (MRP) for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t. DAP importers face losses The new subsidy rate, including the special additional subsidy, brings the breakeven import price for DAP to the low $600s/t cfr at the current exchange rate and MRP. This is well below the latest concluded level in the high $640s/t cfr, and almost $60/t below latest offers. Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy, the breakeven import price would be around $563/t cfr. The government will probably commit to compensating importers for losses on DAP over kharif, but there has not yet been official confirmation. The department of fertilizers said in September last year that it would compensate importers for losses on DAP over rabi. But some importers said that they have not yet received this compensation. NPKs more attractive for many producers Indian DAP producers using phosphoric acid and ammonia imported at $1,153/t P2O5 cfr and $350/t cfr, respectively, now face losses of $25/t, given the current NBS, MRP and exchange rate. The second-quarter contract price for merchant-grade phosphoric acid to India is up by $98/t P2O5 from the first-quarter price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr. The rise in the acid price was driven by soaring sulphur costs, firmer sentiment for DAP and falling ammonia prices — which are down from a midpoint of $440/t cfr at the start of the calendar year. Those producers using phosphoric acid will be drawn to the profits to be gained from making NPKs. The new subsidies for 10-26-26 and 12-32-16 are Rs16,257/t and Rs19,495/t, respectively. Both grades have an MRP of Rs35,000/t. At current phosphoric acid, ammonia and potash — with MOP at $283/t cfr with 180 days credit — import costs and exchange rates, Indian producers would see profits of around $48/t for 10-26-26 and $54/t for 12-32-16. DAP producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia will make a profit. Producers importing 30-31pc P2O5 phosphate rock at $153/t cfr, dry bulk sulphur at $280/t and ammonia at $350/t cfr now see margins of around $66/t. Phosphate rock prices have held broadly steady over recent quarters. The fall in ammonia costs has helped to counter the bull run in the global sulphur market, which has pushed up dry bulk sulphur cfr prices in India by $91/t at the midpoint since the beginning of 2025. Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy on DAP, the loss for producers using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia would rise to around $66/t. And the margin for producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia would fall to around $25/t. Producers generally cannot switch between using phosphoric acid and using phosphate rock and sulphur. The Indian government did not cover the losses incurred by DAP producers over rabi — forcing many producers to turn to making NPKs/NPs instead. Although speculation has emerged that the government will compensate producers over kharif, there has been no official indication either way. DAP stocks to remain low Provisional data indicate that India ended March with around 1.3mn t of DAP in stock, still well below the perceived comfortable minimum of 2mn t. Indian distributors will want to build DAP stocks ahead of the peak offtake season — beginning around June. But while importers and producers continue to face losses, stocks will remain low and many farmers will again have to settle for NPKs/NPs as an alternative source of phosphate. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aglobis, ECM sign sulphur remelter engineering deal

25/04/03

Aglobis, ECM sign sulphur remelter engineering deal

London, 3 April (Argus) — European sulphur and sulphuric acid marketer and distributor Aglobis announced today the signing of an extended basic agreement with engineering service provider ECM to develop its 400,000 t/yr sulphur remelter plant in Duisburg, Germany. Under this agreement, Sulphurnet will act as a sub-contractor to ECM, for sulphur processing technology. Construction is expected to start in 7–8 months following planning and technical design. Engineering activities have already started. This follows the announcement in early January of an agreement with Engie Deutschland for energy provision in the form of steam and utilities for its planned Duisburg sulphur remelter. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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