• 2024年6月14日
  • Market: Chemicals, Chlor-Alkali

PVDF demand to increase chlor-alkali consumption

The demand growth of polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) is dependent on lithium-ion batteries for battery-operated electric vehicle (EV) demand and stationery electrical storage. Argus forecasts global lithium-ion battery demand in EVs to reach 3.8GWh by 2034 from 0.7GWh in 2023. EV sales are expected to rise at an average growth rate of 10pc in the next 10 years reaching more than 46mn units.

Global caustic soda demand into battery materials for leading regions is shown in the figure. Argus’s latest caustic soda analytics forecast explains an exponential rise in caustic soda consumption for battery material processing. Global caustic soda consumption in the processing of lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, cathode materials and recycled black mass was at 1.5mn dmt in 2023 and is expected to reach 3mn dmt in 2033 at a CAGR of 10pc in the first five years.

Global Caustic Demand

The relationship between chlor-alkali products and battery materials is gaining focus in the market. With increasing Lithium-based battery capacity globally, demand for associated battery materials is expected to rise. Among the other components of the Li-ion battery stack, PVDF plays an important role as a binder and separator coating, optimizing energy storage efficiency and reducing battery weight in EVs. 

PVDF utilizes caustic soda and chlorine in its production at different stages. Primary feedstock includes vinylidene chloride or vinylidene fluoride, which are derivatives of caustic soda and chlorine.

Some significant developments in PVDF capacity are taking place in North America and Northeast Asia. Belgian chemical company Solvay entered into a joint venture with Mexico-based PVC producer Orbia to build the largest production facility of battery-grade suspension PVDF in North America with a capacity of 20,000 t/yr. Commercial production is expected to start in 2026 and the expected caustic soda and chlorine demand can be 8,000 t/yr and 12,000 t/yr respectively. 

Solvay has doubled its capacity in Changshu, China in the past five years and raised its capacity in France by 35pc reaching 35,000 t/yr making it the largest production site in Europe. Another major producer French chemical company Arkema increased production capacity by 50pc last year at its Changshu site in China.

Japan-based producer Kureha is undergoing expansion at its Iwaki site in Japan, having a production capacity of 6,500 t/yr. The expansion is in two phases, first is a new capacity of 8,000 t/yr and another 2,000 t/yr in the second phase by debottlenecking resulting in a total capacity of 20,000 t/yr by 2026.

This article was created using data and insight from Argus Caustic Soda Analytics and Argus Battery Materials.

 

 

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25/01/31

US Mexico-Canada tariffs to disrupt polymers markets

US Mexico-Canada tariffs to disrupt polymers markets

Houston, 31 January (Argus) — Planned US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will disrupt years of free flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources say, which could lead to higher prices and less spot market trading. US President Donald Trump repeated on Thursday plans to impose 25pc tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as 1 February. The US and Canadian petrochemical markets in particular operate like one market, with buyers purchasing resin from producers on both sides of the border. Canadian producers are embedded in US buyers' supply strategies, but if Canadian resin is suddenly 25pc more expensive, buyers may need to reconsider other alternatives within the US. Canadian producers may feel obliged to swallow the costs to keep market share, while others may back away from spot trading in the US market, where margins for generic prime, offgrade and widespec material are already lower. "It's about to get pretty crazy," said one US polymer distributor, active in both the US and Canada markets. Canadian producer footprint significant There is approximately 4.6mn t/yr of PE capacity in Canada operated by three major producers, Nova Chemicals, Dow and ExxonMobil, representing around 16.3pc of total US/Canada capacity. Dow is in the planning stage of a $6.5mn net zero CO2 emissions project planned in Alberta, Canada, that will include an additional 2mn t/yr of PE capacity. Heartland Polymers, the only PP producer in Canada, has 525,000 t/yr of PP capacity, representing approximately 4.9pc of total US/Canada PP capacity. Canadian producers are still figuring out how to respond, not wanting to lose market share to US competitors. In a 23 January statement to customers, Nova Chemicals attempted to reassure its US customers. "We understand the importance of remaining competitively priced to retain your business," the communication said. "As stated previously, Nova chemicals is the importer of record, and will be responsible for paying the tariff." Buyers have taken that statement to mean that Nova will not pass the cost of the tariff on to US customers, but other market participants said that is less clear. A Nova spokesman said only that "US customers will not need to manage the customs process associated with their order from Nova" but did not comment on whether the cost would be passed along to buyers. A spokesman from Heartland Polymers declined to comment, saying they do not comment on "political matters." Dow and ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Sources said the tariffs could fundamentally shift the way the markets operate. "Tariffs will change the way they do business," said one buyer active in both the US and Canadian markets, speaking of Canadian PE and PP producers. One trader said it believes that even if Canadian producers remain competitive for contract business, they are unlikely to participate in the spot market in the US, which typically has lower margins. "If they don't have to sell it in the US, they won't do it," the trader said. Canadian customers could also feel the impact if Canada responds with its own tariffs, sources said. "Canadian customers might feel out of harms way, but if the US tariffs them, they will tariff the US," said one PP distributor. "I think both sides are going to be looking for a solution." Mexico flow largely one-way The situation in Mexico is slightly different, with most resin flowing one way — from the US into Mexico — where local production is not enough to meet Mexican demand. Sources there said the big impact will come when or if Mexico responds with retaliatory tariffs on US resin. "A tariff is going to be like a gunshot in the leg for the Mexican economy," said one Mexican polymer producer. The initial concern for most customers in the three countries is existing contracts with resin producers, but later there will be concerns about demand, with the potential for manufacturing to shift back to the US from Canada and Mexico. "Some people are thinking some production may come back to the US with tariffs, so you could see a slight demand boost," said one US-based PE distributor. For now, Canadian producers are believed to have shipped large quantities of resin over the border to the US in recent weeks, believing that if it is already across the border it is not subject to any new tariff. Sources said they are hopeful those volumes will buy them some time until the governments in both countries can come to an agreement. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US PVC producers weigh cutbacks on lower margins


25/01/30
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25/01/30

US PVC producers weigh cutbacks on lower margins

Houston, 30 January (Argus) — US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers are weighing operation cutbacks in February after grappling with deteriorating sales margins underpinned by elevated feedstock costs and stagnant end-product values. PVC producer profitability eroded in January as prices for key feedstock ethylene leapt to four-month highs by mid-January, various sources said. Ethylene is a main component in ethylene dichloride (EDC) manufacturing, which is then cracked into vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) before being converted into PVC. Some domestic PVC production is fully integrated and feature ethylene crackers, but many producers still purchase spot or contract ethylene and remain exposed to price fluctuations in the spot market. Spot US ethylene prices to-date in January have averaged 18pc higher than in December and 66pc higher than in January 2024, according to Argus data. Meanwhile, PVC spot values in Houston appreciated at a much slower rate between December and January, climbing by 1pc. Elevated ethylene spot prices are expected to persist in the near-term, maintaining pressure on PVC margins, due to planned maintenance and recovery from unplanned shutdowns in mid-January stemming from sub-freezing temperatures that gripped the US Gulf coast. The expectation for ethylene values to persist at current levels is anticipated to result in PVC production cutbacks, according to several exporters. Some producers, though, remain incentivized to maintain operating rates after bringing online expanded capacity last year. Formosa and Shintech collectively brought more than 500,000 metric tonne (t)/year of new PVC capacity on line during the second half of 2024. The ramp up in added capacity coincided with increasing trade barriers into key offshore destinations, which is expected to keep more volumes within the US while consumer demand outlooks this year remain cautiously optimistic . US buyers are unsure if domestic demand will be strong enough in 2025 to absorb additional volume, placing a ceiling on upward price direction. Exporters are even less optimistic operating in a global market increasingly defined by anti-dumping duties and plentiful Chinese supply. Domestic contract negotiations have highlighted the contrast between higher operating costs and a well-supplied PVC market. Producers cited higher operating costs to argue against lower contract negotiations in January, especially after prices fell in October and November. Several producers announced increases for February volumes, with some rising as high as 5¢/lb. But buyers said current demand does not support increases and instead view price hikes as to recapture lost margin. While producers sought price stability for January monthly contracts, they are also competing to lock in volume commitments through 2025 with aggressive annual contract discussions. Producers are trying to establish a price floor domestically by limiting price erosion among already-low-priced customers, but the additional capacity has made steeper price concessions difficult to avoid in other instances. One evolving upstream market variable is a firmer US Gulf coast spot export caustic soda market, which could encourage producers to maintain current rates and delay any cuts. Integrated PVC producers also manufacture chlorine and caustic soda through chlor-alkali units. Caustic soda is a co-product of chlorine — the latter a key feedstock in EDC production — and price swings in chlorine or caustic soda values can influence production decisions for PVC manufacturers. Caustic soda export prices from the US Gulf coast this week rose by $10/dry metric tonne (dmt) from the prior week and remains 8pc higher than the same week last year, according to Argus data. Tightened spot supply availability is a tailwind for spot values in the near-term, but values remain 24pc lower than peak levels in September when caustic soda prices last offset tighter PVC margins. By Aaron May and Connor Hyde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Philippines’ JG Summit to shut petrochemical assets


25/01/28
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Philippines’ JG Summit to shut petrochemical assets

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Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti


25/01/24
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25/01/24

Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti

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Unfortunately, my expectations are not high. We face two basic challenges. Firstly, we face a structural issue because collection costs in Europe are far higher than outside Europe — some 10 times higher compared with countries such as Egypt, Morocco and China. European recyclers cannot close this gap simply by higher technical standards and innovation — they need protection to compete on a level playing field. Secondly, we are grappling with a lack of clarity. The EU institutions are not clear on what will happen if players don't add at least 25pc recycled content to PET beverage bottles that they sell into the EU market [in line with the country-by-country targets laid out since 1 January in the EU Single Use Plastic (SUP) directive]. There does not appear to be any penalty for those who do not comply with the rules, so naturally the incentive to comply is not high. 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I don't see depolymerisation making a meaningful contribution until we get greater clarity over regulation. This is something that we will be taking up urgently with the European Commission, including with the commission speakers at our annual PETCORE Europe conference in Brussels on 4-5 February. Clearly the technology needs to be proven and to be cost-effective. But even if this was the case, companies may have cancelled and postponed projects due to legislative uncertainty. They cannot be expected to move ahead with huge investments if it is not clear whether the definition of what is accountable in recycled content has been clarified. The endless discussion on the mass balance technology is a typical example of what we need to clarify.† PETCORE Europe continues to push the commission to clarify all the cloudy points that are still pending, to allow correct implementation of the SUP directive. This is the thrust of the discussions that will be taking place at our conference. The environment in which we operate is changing and Europe's PET industry has realised that it has lost its former global competitiveness. The challenge, and our role as the association representing the complete PET value chain in Europe, is to work to set in place conditions needed for the industry to regain its position and its competitive advantage by innovation and investments in new technologies. *The most recent EU implementing decision relating to the SUP directive defines post-consumer plastic waste as generated from waste "placed on the market" without further clarification. A draft update in February 2024 expanded on the definition to "generated from plastic products that have been supplied for distribution, consumption or use on the market of a Member State or of a third country in the course of a commercial activity", but this was not adopted at the time. †The as-yet-unadopted February 2024 implementing decision laid down a "fuel-use exempt" methodology for calculating chemically recycled content in respect of the SUP directive targets. This led to an objection from the European Parliament's environment committee, although this was rejected in a vote by the parliament. Discussions are ongoing with a new draft implementing decision due early this year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Port of Nola reopens after winter storm


25/01/24
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25/01/24

Port of Nola reopens after winter storm

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