US elections undecided as some polls close: Update

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
06/11/24

Updates with changes throughout

Early voting results from key US swing states point to a tight race between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris, with the outcome carrying high stakes for energy policy, trade and climate change.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are the swing states that will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Early results from Georgia point to a slight advantage for Trump relative to his 2020 results in that state, which President Joe Biden then carried by nearly 12,000 votes.

But early voting results also point to slight gains for Harris in some demographic segments relative to Biden's 2020 performance. That would make election results in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — which typically take days to complete the count — crucial for determining the outcome. Winning all three states would secure a victory for either candidate.

In the US Senate, Republicans have a pathway to win control with a 51-49 majority by flipping one more seat, after West Virginia governor Jim Justice (R) was declared the winner in that state's Senate race by the Associated Press. Democrats are defending seats in close races in Montana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If the Senate is tied, control will go to the party that wins the presidential election.

Even before polls closed today, Trump said there was a "lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia" in a post on his social media site, in a rerun of his strategy in the 2020 election of making unsubstantiated claims about voting. Harris, in a campaign speech on Monday in Pennsylvania, said the election offered a chance to "turn the page on a decade of politics that have been driven by fear and division".

Trump has focused heavily on energy policy and voter frustration about inflation in his bid for a second term. US motorists were paying an average of $3.07/USG for regular grade gasoline in the week ended on 4 November, the lowest price in 10 months, but still higher than at any point in Trump's first term. On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to bring down energy prices through a policy to "drill, baby, drill" and dismantling President Joe Biden's signature climate initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act.

Harris has pledged to support the 2022 law and other Biden energy policies, such as continued support for electric vehicles. Harris has disavowed her 2019 pledge to ban hydraulic fracturing. But oil and gas companies remain concerned about restrictions on federal leasing and efforts to electrify the vehicle fleet if she is elected.

The next president will decide key questions on energy policy, such as the licensing of new US LNG export facilities and regulating carbon emissions from power plants, oil and gas facilities and vehicles. The election will carry equally high stakes for companies involved in metals, agriculture and other commodities. Trump is planning a combative approach to trade, with a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs against China. In 2025, the US Congress is also poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts.

On foreign policy, the next president will face decisions on the future of US restrictions on Russian energy exports and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East.

Polls also show a tight race in the fight for control of the US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a 220-212 majority and where up to 22 seats are deemed competitive, election ratings firm Cook Political Report says.

By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats

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09/04/25

What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?

Some countries are considering retaliatory tariffs, while others hope to reduce their trade deficit in order to negotiate lower rates London, 9 April (Argus) — Newly announced US tariffs on goods entering the country and some of the countermeasures already announced by large trade partners are unlikely to cause any direct disruptions to global gas markets. But the indirect effects on gas supply and demand may be huge, stemming from a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fuel substitution and inflationary pressures on infrastructure development. US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed a minimum 10pc tax on all foreign imports from 5 April,with much higher tariffs on selected countries that briefly came into force on 9 April, before Trump announced a 90-day pause. China is the only exception. It has announced retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt US energy exports, resulting in an escalation that has already brought up the respective levies to 125pc in the US and 84pc in China. These are unlikely to have any direct impact on LNG trade flows, as China had already stopped importing US LNG earlier this year. But disruptions to trade between the world's two largest economies may weigh heavily on manufacturing activity in China, in turn reducing industrial gas demand. And the ripple effects of disruptions to US LPG exports to China may alter fuel-switching economics in the region and beyond. Most other countries in Asia-Pacific have opted not to follow China's lead by retaliating against US tariffs, even though many have warned about the potential for long-term economic disruption. The Japanese government intends to negotiate a better tariff deal and is considering investing in the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project as part of wider efforts to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Countries in Asia-Pacific have been hit with some of the highest of Trump's targeted duties. The EU is keeping retaliatory measures on the table, but these are unlikely to include any levy on US LNG. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of its Russian pipeline supply, and imposing tariffs on energy imports would only reignite inflationary pressures that European countries have tried to curb over the past three years. The bloc says it is ready to negotiate on possibly increasing its US LNG imports to reduce its trade surplus and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agrees to do the same. But Trump says this offer is not enough, citing the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justifies a tariff response. Nerves of steel Much greater risks for gas markets may stem from rising infrastructure costs in the US' upstream and midstream sectors, particularly as a result of earlier tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports. These present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions this year. Metals account for up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. An LNG terminal can cost $5bn-25bn to build, depending on its size, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. US facilities can be built using some domestic metal, but higher prices for this may lead to construction and final investment decision delays for the country's planned liquefaction projects. US tariffs' primary effect on the domestic gas market stems from duties levied on non-energy goods used by the oil and gas industry, including steel and specialised pipeline components such as valves and compressors, which are imported from overseas. The US remains a net natural gas importer from Canada , but these flows are unlikely to be affected by trade tariffs given the lack of alternative supply sources available to some northern US states. US LNG project pipeline mn t/yr Project Capacity Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update

09/04/25

Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update

Adds details from earnings call throughout. Houston, 9 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty. "Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call. Delta said it hoped the growing US tariff war with the world would be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee. "If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," chief executive Ed Bastion said in an earnings call today. In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, Bastion said. Delta expects revenue in the second quarter of 2025 to be either 2pc higher or 2pc lower from the year earlier period with continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international bookings offsetting softness in domestic and standard flights. Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners were implemented on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes went into effect today, although at midday Wednesday he announced a 90-day pause on most of the higher tariffs, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports even higher. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. Confidence craters in 1Q Corporate travel started the year with momentum, but a reduction in corporate confidence stalled growth in February and March, Delta said. For the first quarter, corporate sales were up by low-single digits compared to the prior year, with strength led by the banking and technology sectors. The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period. Delta said it has seen "a significant drop off in bookings" out of Canada amid the trade disputes with that country which started earlier than the broader US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexico is "a mixed bag," the company said. Delta is considering reducing capacity levels in Mexico and Canada in the future. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty

09/04/25

Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty

Houston, 9 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty. "Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call. Delta said it hoped the growing tariff war woudl be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee. In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, chief executive Ed Bastion said. The company reported a profit of $298mn in the first quarter of 2025, up slightly from $288mn in the first quarter of 2024. The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German coalition eyes 'limited' foreign carbon credits

09/04/25

German coalition eyes 'limited' foreign carbon credits

Berlin, 9 April (Argus) — The parties likely to form Germany's next government today presented their coalition treaty, which pledges to allow the use of foreign carbon credits to reach the country's 2040 climate target. The treaty, presented in Berlin by the four party leaders Friedrich Merz of the CDU — the likely next federal chancellor — Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken of the SPD, and Markus Soeder of the CDU's Bavarian sister party CSU, stresses the parties' commitment to German and European climate targets, the Paris climate agreement, and reaching climate neutrality in Germany by 2045 "by combining climate action, economic competitiveness and social balance, and by focusing on innovation". "We want to remain an industrialised country and become climate neutral," the treaty reads. The parties' support for the EU's suggested interim target to reduce its emissions 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990 levels is conditional on two points. Germany must not be expected to go beyond its 88pc reduction target for 2040 enshrined in the country's climate action law. And its companies must be allowed, with a view to reducing their residual emissions in an "economically viable" way, to resort to "permanent and sustainable negative emissions", and to "credible CO2 reduction through highly qualified, certified and permanent projects" in "non-European partner countries". Making use of the latter activities should be permissible for up to three percentage points of the 2040 reduction target, although the "priority" for companies will be to reduce carbon emissions. And allowing these options must be reflected in the European Climate Law and the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the parties stipulate. The treaty also underlines the importance of "effective" carbon leakage protection to preserve Germany's "industrial value creation". The treaty calls for the European Green Deal and Clean Industrial Act to be further developed to "bring competitiveness and climate action together", and stresses the importance of carbon pricing instruments, which more countries should be persuaded to introduce. The parties also flag the importance of social acceptance, advocating an "economically viable price development" and pledging to ensure the smooth transition of Germany's domestic carbon price for the heating and transport sectors into the EU ETS 2 on the latter's launch in 2027. The parties pledge "immediately" to adopt a legislative package that enables carbon capture, transport, use and storage (CCU/CCS), particularly for industrial emissions that are difficult to avoid, and also for gas-fired power plants — a disputed issue within the SPD, and the reason why CCS legislation did not pass under the outgoing SPD-Green-led federal government. The new government said it will legally enshrine the "overriding public interest" of the construction of CCS infrastructure, as well as pledging to give the "highest priority" to ratifying the [amendment to the] London Protocol, allowing cross-border CO2 transportation, and to enter bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries on storing carbon. The new government will enable CO2 storage offshore in Germany's exclusive economic zone and the North Sea, as well as onshore where geologically suitable and accepted. The parties see direct air capture as a "possible" future technology to "leverage negative emissions". By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China hikes US import tariffs to 84pc

09/04/25

China hikes US import tariffs to 84pc

Singapore, 9 April (Argus) — China will raise import tariffs on US goods by 50 percentage points to 84pc, effective 10 April, the country's State Council said today. The increase matches the hike in US tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by US president Donald Trump earlier today. China does not appear to have exempted any products from its higher tariffs, which will take effect at 12:01am local time on 10 April (4:01pm GMT on 9 April). "The US escalation of tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China's legitimate rights and interests and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system," the State Council said. Trump's targeted import tariffs on the US' main trading partners, including a cumulative 104pc tariff on China, took effect earlier today. China's 84pc tariff increases to around 100pc for some commodities that were caught up in earlier rounds of tariffs announced in February and March, including crude, coal, LNG and some agricultural products. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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