Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Spanish Market: Fertilizers
26/12/24

US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring.

Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).

But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports.

But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US.

Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October.

Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants.

Amsul's relationship status update

Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December.

Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season.

Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year.

By Meghan Yoyotte

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

12/03/25

Ethiopia's EABC issues new tender to buy DAP: Update

Updates the quantity and loading requirements for each lot London, 12 March (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) has issued a tender to buy 466,358t of DAP, closing on 25 March. Offers must be given on a fob basis for payment at sight or with 30 days of credit. EABC is seeking eight cargoes. The quantities and dates to complete loading are as follows: Lot 18: 60,000t, 15-20 April Lot 19: 60,000t, 20-25 April Lot 20: 60,000t, 25-30 April Lot 22: 60,000t, 25-30 April Lot 23: 60,000t, 5-10 May Lot 24: 55,000t, 15-20 May Lot 25: 55,000t, 20-25 May Lot 26: 55,358t, 25-30 May EABC has scrapped its 20 February tender, which sought 540,390t of DAP, after having received updated offers ranging from $630-670/t fob. It had counterbid at $625/t fob and below against initial offers ranging from $625-695/t fob. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

OCP’s absence weighs on European sulacid market

11/03/25

OCP’s absence weighs on European sulacid market

London, 11 March (Argus) — European sulphuric acid fobs have halved in value since they reached a two-year peak in December last year as a lack of buying from OCP results in European cargoes to be liquidated in the Americas. Northwest European fobs fell to $65/t on 6 March, at a drop of $50/t from December last year. Meanwhile, Mediterranean fobs dropped by $60/t on 6 March, down $60/t on the peak recorded at the end of last year. The drop in price comes as available cargoes in Bulgaria and Turkey, which were confirmed sold from the mid-$60s/t fob for prompt and up to May shipment, have had to find outlets further afield as OCP is reportedly out of the market. OCP's spot appetite has been muted for the past six to eight weeks, according to market sources. This has resulted in traders selling European cargoes in South America at delivered prices not seen since May 2024. China – which supplied nearly 50pc of the acid to Morocco in 2024 – is yet to see an impact on the lack of demand from OCP as strong demand from the domestic market limits cargo availability and results in firmer export prices for Chinese cargoes. Argus last assessed China acid prices were $55/t fob on a midpoint basis on 6 March. The highest level since 31 October 2024. The temporary pause in OCP sulphuric acid buying could be explained due to a ramp up at its new 500,000 t/yr sulphur burner which came online in 4Q25. OCP imported 2.01mn t in 2024, at a three-year high, customs data showed. Approximately 430,000t acid is due to arrive to Jorf Lasfar in the first quarter of the year, line up shows. Sulphuric acid intake is expected to decline on the year — with import estimates ranging from 1-1.1mn t in 2025 on increased sulphur burner capacity. By Lili Minton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

NorthAm market presumes potash is USMCA compliant

07/03/25

NorthAm market presumes potash is USMCA compliant

Houston, 7 March (Argus) — North American fertilizer market players presume that potash (MOP) imported from Canada to the US will be exempt from tariffs for now, despite lack of a clear definition from the latest White House executive order. Potash that is mined and produced in Canada would be considered compliant under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and should not face a duty during the tariff pause initiated by the administration of President Donald Trump on Thursday, industry sources told Argus . That understanding should account for the vast majority of MOP produced in Canada and exported to the US. Any potash that is not USMCA certified faces a reduced 10pc duty imposed this week during the month-long delay on the broader Canada and Mexico tariffs Trump has threatened, according to the executive order signed on Thursday. Though the details of what form of Canadian potash products may not be compliant is unclear, the fertilizer market assumption is that no tariffs will apply if data can be provided by the exporter, importer or producer to show the product crossing the border is USMCA compliant, sources said. Examples of non-certified potash product could be compound NPK fertilizers, which are created by mixing nitrogen, phosphate and potassium or other micronutrients, sources said. US industry association The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) called the new executive order's actions "a positive step forward" in its efforts to stress the importance of affordable fertilizer products. On a nutrient basis, the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. But some sources have voiced confusion regarding whether other imported Canadian fertilizer products, such as nitrogen, ammonia and sulfur, would also be considered USMCA compliant. Although sulfur is wholly produced in Canada as a by-product of crude oil refining, and ammonia is created through the usage of likely Canadian natural gas, the situation would be less clear for phosphate fertilizers from Mexico, where some raw materials are imported. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023, where 15pc of imports came from Canada. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. And 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

High US potash stocks to delay tariff reaction: Update

06/03/25

High US potash stocks to delay tariff reaction: Update

Updates text to include tariff delay for Canadian goods. Houston, 6 March (Argus) — Ample stocks of potash in the US would likely delay the impact of the US' Canadian import tariffs on prices and volumes, according to North American fertilizer market participants. Leading up to the February and March deadlines for the tariffs, a significant volume of Canadian potash was brought into the US, adding onto stockpiles leftover from the fall application season, according to sources. Potash price movement has been minimal since Tuesday, when the US tariffs were initially put in place before being delayed Thursday, partly because of the stockpiling and because some of the impact of the tariff is already priced into the market. MOP trade at Nola has been flat week-over-week at around $305/st fob. That is up by $50/st from the start of January but $12.50/st lower than the final week of February 2024. US potash producers Mosaic and Intrepid said an increase in the price of potash from the tariffs would likely materialize for second quarter product. It is unclear what the overall impact on the market would be, but Mosaic said that it would be borne by downstream distributors and end users. Mosaic also added that the overall impact of tariffs is unclear but that North American and global potash demand would remain robust. The product should remain affordable, Mosaic said, despite expectations of significant disruptions in global potash trade flows and logistics. But with the impending start of the spring application season on the horizon, and expectations of robust potash demand, potash prices at Nola and further inland could rise. Earlier today President Donald Trump announced that Mexico, which also was hit with a 25pc tariff on its goods this week, would not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement at least through 2 April. A similar deal for Canadian goods was announced shortly afterward. Potash market participants said early Thursday morning that potash could be carved out of the policy in the future, a position advocated by industry groups Agricultural Retailers Association and The Fertilizer Institute. "Nobody wants this," one source said. "But we are going to hunker down and take [the tariffs] day-to-day." There is additional confusion among buyers of Canadian potash on how the tariffs will be implemented with shipments that have already been negotiated and which buyers will receive shipments from US warehouses or from across the border. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks

06/03/25

Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks

Mumbai, 6 March (Argus) — Indian company Ocior is developing renewable hydrogen and ammonia projects in India and Egypt. Its most advanced project in Odisha, India, will be developed in two phases — 200,000 t/yr in the first and 800,000 t/yr in the second — with plans to take a final investment decision (FID) for the first phase by September. Argus spoke with the firm's founder and chief executive, Ranjit Gupta, about India's regulatory framework for green hydrogen and progress of the company's projects. Edited highlights follow: How is India faring in development of the hydrogen sector? India is actually doing a very good job by creating a market for 200,000t/yr of green hydrogen use in refineries. The central government has allocated this capacity across various refineries, which are coming up with individual tenders for hydrogen plants to be put up at or around them. One tender by [state-owned refiner] IOC is already closed and other tenders are expected to close in March and April. Once a price for green hydrogen is discovered through these tenders, it will really help the industry move forward. If the government is able to demonstrate that there is offtake available, there will be no dearth of investments in this sector. What more can the government do on the regulatory side? There are a lot of things that the government could potentially do. The objective is to get green hydrogen and green ammonia costs as low as possible. And you do that by at least bringing it down on par with current grey hydrogen and ammonia prices. Both grey hydrogen and ammonia are produced from natural gas. India imports most of its natural gas, and all of it is denominated in dollars. But the refineries and [state-owned] SECI [Solar Energy Corporation of India] are giving us rupee pricing. We have requested dollar pricing—that could help us drive the cost of debt down. If you have a dollar offtake, you can go for a dollar debt, which means you don't have to hedge the dollar to rupee. Another thing, when setting up a green hydrogen and green ammonia project, it should be recognised that we are replacing imported goods. Therefore, the industry should receive benefits that help reduce taxes. If I can reduce my taxes and cost of debt, that will really help in reducing my capital expenditure number, ultimately bringing down the cost of hydrogen and ammonia. Earlier, selling renewable energy from one special economic (SEZ) zone to another was not allowed, but the government has fixed that. But selling renewable energy from an export-oriented unit to an SEZ is still not allowed. The ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) has been trying for last two years to get it changed at the behest of the industry. Additionally, you cannot sell excess energy outside the SEZ. That needs to change. The regulator could define taxes I have saved and determine a tariff adjustment if I sell excess renewable energy to the domestic tariff area. There are several small things like this which we are requesting the government to do. And MNRE has done a fabulous job in trying to get these things done. But when it becomes inter-ministerial, the process is drawn out a little longer. How are your projects progressing? We have two projects — in Egypt and Odisha, India. We hope to FID the first phase of the Odisha project by September, and the Egypt project by March next year. But further progress will depend on offtake. For our Odisha project, we have acquired land and started front end engineering design (FEED) study. We have contracted Norwegian company Aker solutions to work on the FEED study. We have awarded ammonia licensor contract to [US engineering firm] KBR and green certification study to [German certification provider] TUV Rheinland. We have already completed geotechnical studies. We are in discussions with GRIDCO [Grid Corporation of Odisha] for renewable power. So, a lot of progress has been made. The issue is offtake. If we are able to determine that, then we could potentially start construction of the project by August- September. We have signed a memorandum of understanding with an European trader, Ameropa, and are in discussions with other Japanese and European companies for offtake. Plus, we are going to take part in the SECI's green ammonia tender. Are you facing any challenges in developing the project in Egypt? Every country is different. In Egypt, the big advantage is that solar and wind resource are fantastic, much better than India. No issue with land availability — we have been allocated 600 km² of land for the wind project and around 11,000 acres for solar projects by the Egyptian authorities. That's a big advantage over India, where land is always a challenge to aggregate. On the regulatory framework, both countries are similar. The disadvantage of Egypt is that they don't have a good electricity grid. India has great infrastructure for project development and construction. And you will not have a problem with labor or skilled engineers. Egypt might not have that available. So, there are advantages and disadvantages to each country. How much does compliance with EU standards on renewable fuels of non-biological origins impact production costs? The biggest issue is temporal correlation. If they could do away with it, that would make things easier. In dollar terms, the difference in production costs would be close to about 10pc for the price of ammonia. The EU green lobby needs to realise that the more stringent they make green standards, the further away the pricing will be from grey hydrogen, making it more difficult for consumers to accept green hydrogen. This will also leave the doors open for blue hydrogen, which will come in somewhere in the middle. By starting with less restrictive covenants, not compromising on carbon content, green hydrogen pricing can be more competitive than blue hydrogen for EU. By Akansha Victor Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more