Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Market: Fertilizers
26/12/24

US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring.

Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).

But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports.

But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US.

Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October.

Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants.

Amsul's relationship status update

Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December.

Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season.

Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year.

By Meghan Yoyotte

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