Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

  • : Fertilizers
  • 24/12/26

US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring.

Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).

But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports.

But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US.

Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October.

Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants.

Amsul's relationship status update

Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December.

Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season.

Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/03/04

Morocco’s sulacid imports hit three-year highs in 2024

Morocco’s sulacid imports hit three-year highs in 2024

London, 4 March (Argus) — Morocco's sulphuric acid imports reached 2.01mn t in 2024, at a three-year high, as two new sulphur burners that came on line at OCP's Jorf Lasfar hub in 2024 supported sulphuric acid intake, customs data showed. The rise in sulphuric acid imports also reflects firm demand for processed phosphate fertilizers from key end-users, which has resulted in strong demand for raw materials such as sulphuric acid. Nearly 50pc of the acid which arrived in Morocco was supplied by China and countries in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region, with the latter shipping record sulphuric acid volumes to Morocco. China shipped 424,000t of acid in 2024, largely unchanged on 2023, but nearly half the volume delivered when compared with 2021 and 2022. Italian deliveries to Morocco rose to a record high of 264,000t, compared with 19,000t in 2023, with some of the volumes understood to be secured under a long term supply contract. Bulgaria supplied 227,000t of acid in 2024, from 19,000t last year, while Turkey shipped 207,400t of acid, up from 37,000t last year. Spanish acid deliveries came to 198,000t in 2024, the highest level shipped since 2021, prior to when OCP paused sulphuric acid buying. Northwest European countries shipped around 430,000t acid in 2024, more than double the volumes delivered on the prior year. Sulphuric acid intake in 2025 is expected to decline on the year — with import estimates ranging from 1-1.1mn t — as the latest sulphur burner commissioned by OCP ramps up in capacity, thus favouring sulphur intake instead. By Lili Minton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

St Louis harbor water levels to improve


25/03/04
25/03/04

St Louis harbor water levels to improve

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — Water levels at the St Louis, Missouri, harbor are forecast to rise above 0ft this week, the National Weather Service (NWS) said, allowing for easier barge transit at the harbor after weeks of low water concerns. St Louis is forecast to receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today, including some hail, with around 1 inch of precipitation expected to pour over the greater St Louis area, according to the NWS. As water from the tributaries reaches the harbor into this weekend, levels as high as 10.7ft are expected by 11 March. This rain is long awaited as the St Louis harbor has been grappling with low water conditions since early January. These conditions were exacerbated by minimal rainfall in February, causing water levels to fall below -3ft at the terminal. Some barge carriers will finally be able to resume loading at their docks after calling off all barge movement due to the low water. Draft restrictions are anticipated to slowly loosen in the coming days as water levels rise, and more weight can be placed on barges. Current draft restrictions are between 9.6-10ft at St Louis. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariff on Canadian potash imports goes ahead


25/03/04
25/03/04

US tariff on Canadian potash imports goes ahead

London, 4 March (Argus) — US tariffs on Canadian imports, including a 25pc tariff on potash, have come into effect today after most market participants expected it to either be further delayed or for an exemption on potash imports. US president Donald Trump signed executive orders on 1 February to impose a 25pc levy on all US imports from Canada from 4 February, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff. This was subsequently postponed to 4 March. Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies so heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. The US has limited domestic MOP production and more than 80pc of its potash needs are from Canada — 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP will only further limit supply options. The upcoming US spring market should largely be unaffected as suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but granular MOP prices have been on an upwards trend. The president of US fertilizer company Mosaic Bruce Bodine said in an earnings call last week that Mosaic expects potash to remain "affordable" and for no demand destruction to occur because of the tariffs. But affordability could change if corn prices fall or potash prices increase. Whether prices could change enough to affect US consumption is unclear. At a global level, MOP prices remain firm and the implementation of the tariffs today are unlikely to prompt any major change in reactions from key markets. Market participants will keep a close eye on any potential change in trade flows. Canada has responded with its own retaliatory tariffs on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days' time. By Julia Campbell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia's Kaltim retenders to sell granular urea


25/03/04
25/03/04

Indonesia's Kaltim retenders to sell granular urea

Amsterdam, 4 March (Argus) — Indonesian Pupuk subsidiary Kaltim will close a tender on 5 March, offering 45,000t of granular urea for loading in the second week of March. This latest tender follows the producer's 25 February tender to sell the same amount over the same loading period, which Kaltim eventually scrapped with the highest bid in the low-$410s/t fob. The producer had sought around $430/t fob Bontang. Activity in the international urea market has remained slow in the past week, as producers wait for an Indian tender issuance in a bid to hold levels close to the recent highs set in mid-February. But prices have slipped as the US urea import line-up builds and with Iranian production set to resume in the next week or so, amid a dip in international gas and grain prices. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25


25/03/03
25/03/03

Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25

Houston, 3 March (Argus) — North American fertilizer producer Mosaic aims to complete maintenance at its assets in early 2025 and restore potash and phosphate production in line with historical levels following several disruptions to output in 2024. The producer forecasts its potash production to rise to a range of 8.7-9.1mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, up from 8.7mn t in 2024. The company forecast phosphate production to rise to 7.4-7.6mn t in 2025 from 6.4mn t in 2024. The increased potash production will partly stem from the company's 400,000t Hydrofloat expansion at the Esterhazy mine in Canada's Saskatchewan province that Mosaic anticipates completing later this year. Mosaic also hopes to increase production following some maintenance work at its facilities, which will bring the company's capital expenditures for 2025 in line with 2024 levels at about $1.25bn. The producer has an ongoing turnaround at its sulfuric acid unit at its Bartow, Florida, phosphate processing plant that Mosaic expects to complete later this week. All sulfuric acid plants across Florida and Louisiana are back to doing turnarounds every three years, after the Covid-19 pandemic interrupted its maintenance schedule, the company said. The New Wales, Florida, plant brought forward some work at its phosphoric acid unit to address lingering reliability issues there that reduced output in 2024. The work at New Wales should increase Mosaic's production in the back half of the year, Mosaic said. Mosaic lost 700,000t of phosphate production and 250,000t of potash production in 2024 from operational and weather-related issues at its facilities, the company said. Back-to-back hurricanes impacting Florida in October contributed to the reduction in phosphate output. Electrical issues at the Esterhazy and Colonsay mines in Saskatchewan disrupted potash production in the third quarter. The company said it has recently operated both facilities at full capacity. Separately, Mosaic plans to finish the development of its 1mn t/yr blending plant in Palmeirante, Brazil, in 2025 as well. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more