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Australia elevates EVs, solar in GHG reduction plan

  • : Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen, Metals
  • 21/11/03

The Australian federal government has elevated the role of electric vehicles (EVs) and low-cost solar technology in attaining its ambition of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Low-cost solar will also be used to underpin plans to develop a domestic hydrogen industry using renewable energy.

Australia has updated its GHG emissions reduction plan, adding three more areas of focus. It will develop polices and provide state financing for lowering the cost of solar technology, support EV technology and deployment, as well as provide timelines for parity for the costs of solar and EV with prevailing technology.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will become price competitive over the next 5-10 years as the world's largest vehicle manufacturers increasingly commit to their development, the government's latest report said.

"Investment is required to prepare for a rapid increase in the number of consumers choosing BEVs and FCEVs, and to ensure enough charging and refuelling stations are made available to meet demand," it said.

The report did not provide any target for EV deployment in Australia. But a separate government report last week has EVs accounting for 30pc of new car sales in Australia by 2030 from less than 1pc in 2019 under a baseline scenario and 61pc by the end of the decade under a high-technology scenario.

Road transport fuels form the bulk of Australia's near 1mn b/d demand, most of which is imported. Transport has also been one of the fastest increasing sources of its GHG emissions, up by almost two-thirds during 1990-19, according to its latest audited emissions accounts filed with the UN.

Australia has not joined other countries in setting a timeline to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles. But including EVs as part of its emissions reduction targets marks a shift for Australia's current government that has no plans to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel exports such as LNG and thermal coal. It also noted that the country could benefit economically from the energy transition as Australia is a significant producer of copper, nickel and lithium that are used in batteries.

Cutting production costs

Canberra has focused on lowering solar power costs, driven by a strategy to cut production costs for hydrogen made from renewable energy, also known as green hydrogen. Its Solar 30 30 30 plan aims to achieve 30pc efficiency at A$0.30 ($0.23) per installed watt by 2030.

"Getting solar power down to less than A$15/MWh, a third of today's cost, will be critical to reducing electricity sector emissions, but also in unlocking the potential of other low-emissions technologies like clean hydrogen," Australian energy minister Angus Taylor said in a speech at the UN Cop 26 climate conference in the UK's Glasgow.

Ultra low-cost clean electricity is also key to meeting the goals for Australian's other ambitions of lowering GHG emissions such as low-emissions steel and aluminium, along with electrical energy for storage for firming power generation.

Australia has ambitions to emerge as hydrogen producer and exporter. It aims to use green hydrogen to aid the decarbonisation of other sectors such as heavy haulage fuel cell EVs, ammonia as a chemical feedstock for making fertilizer and fuel for shipping and co-firing for electricity generation in countries like Japan.


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24/12/26

China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts

China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts

Beijing, 26 December (Argus) — China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has launched futures contracts and options for polysilicon today. This is the third contract that GFEX has launched, following the launch of its contracts for silicon metal in December 2022 and lithium carbonate in July 2023. The launch of polysilicon contracts is aimed at easing a supply surplus and ensuring market development, given increasing new capacities at polysilicon producers and lower-than-expected demand from the downstream silicon wafer industry in the past two years, according to market participants. The new contracts are for benchmark N-type polysilicon and substitute P-type polysilicon. The exchange has set a premium of 12,000 yuan/t ($1,644/t) for the N-type over the P-type. It is offering seven contracts starting from June 2025 until December. The most-traded June contracts for N-type polysilicon on the GFEX closed at Yn41,570/t on 26 December, up from the launch price of Yn38,600/t, with trading volumes totalling 301,655 lots, equivalent to around 905,000t. GFEX has established delivery points for the new contracts in eight provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. Output and consumption in these regions account for 93.1pc and 91pc of the country's total output and consumption respectively, according to GFEX. South China-based GFEX launched in April 2021 and is partly owned by China's four operational futures exchanges — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange — with each holding a 15pc stake. Market reaction Some market participants expect the new futures contracts will ease pressure from ample spot inventories and shore up spot market sentiment in the coming months. But the market has yet to see immediate effects on the first trading day. Argus -assessed domestic prices for 5-5-3 grade silicon metal — a key feedstock in the production of silicon powder, which is the feedstock for polysilicon — held at Yn11,200-11,400/t delivered to ports on 26 December, unchanged from 24 December given limited buying interest from consumers. The most-traded February contracts for 5-5-3 grade silicon on the GFEX closed at Yn11,190/t on 26 December, down from Yn11,585/t on 25 December. China is the world's largest polysilicon producer, producing 1.74mn t during January-November, up by 33pc from a year earlier, according to data from the China nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA). It has an production capacity of over 2mn t/yr, according to industry estimates. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ


24/12/26
24/12/26

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

Tokyo, 26 December (Argus) — Japan's crude steel output is expected to recover during April 2025-March 2026, given higher output in wider domestic industries, according to government affiliated think-tank the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ). The country's crude steel output will increase by 4.1pc on the year to 86.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the IEEJ's projection on 24 December. This will mark the first year-on-year growth in four years. A recovery is mostly attributed to an uptrend in wider domestic industrial sectors including automobile, electric and industrial machinery, IEEJ said. It sees domestic car output increasing by 1.8pc to 8.9mn units from a year earlier. IEEJ did not provide further details, but it suggested that expanding investment for digital and green transformation will underpin the steel demand throughout the period. The think-tank also predicts that the country's steel product exports will increase by 1.2pc on the year following an upward trend in the global manufacturing sectors. Japan delivered around 32mn t of steel products overseas during 2023-24, according to the industry group the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF). The country's crude steel output has been sluggish throughout 2024, partly owing to weak demand from the construction and automobile sectors. Rising material costs and labour shortages have led to fewer construction projects in the country, weighing on steel demand. Operational suspensions at major auto manufacturers including Toyota and Daihatsu, following alleged false reporting on safety test results, also pressured steel demand. This partially led to the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in booked orders of ordinary steel for car use in October, according to JISF. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025


24/12/24
24/12/24

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — California must begin crafting dairy methane limits next year as pressure grows for regulators to change course. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has committed to begin crafting regulations that could mandate the reduction of dairy methane as it locked in incentives for harvesting gas to fuel vehicles in the state. The combination has frustrated environmental groups and other opponents of a methane capture strategy they accuse of collateral damage. Now, tough new targets pitched to help balance the program's incentives could become the fall-out in a new lawsuit. State regulators have repeatedly said that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is ill-suited to consider mostly off-road emissions from a sector that could pack up and move to another state to escape regulation. California's LCFS requires yearly reductions of transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the state of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Regulators extended participation in the program to dairy methane in 2017. Dairies may register to use manure digesters to capture methane that suppliers may process into pipeline-quality natural gas. This gas may then be attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles in California, so long as participants can show a path for approved supplies between the dairy and the customer. California only issues credits for methane cuts beyond other existing requirements. Regulators began mandating methane reductions from landfills more than a decade ago and in 2016 set similar requirements for wastewater treatment plants. But while lawmakers set a goal for in-state dairies to reduce methane emissions by 40pc from 2030 levels, regulators could not even consider rulemakings mandating such reductions until 2024. CARB made no move to directly regulate those emissions at their first opportunity, as staff grappled with amendments to the agency's LCFS and cap-and-trade programs. That has meant that dairies continue to receive credit for all of the methane they capture, generating deep, carbon-reducing scores under the LCFS and outsized credit production relative to the fuel they replace. Dairy methane harvesting generated 16pc of all new credits generated in 2023, compared with biodiesel's 6pc. Dairy methane replaced just 38pc of the diesel equivalent gallons that biodiesel did over the same period. The incentive has exasperated environmental and community groups, who see LCFS credits as encouraging larger operations with more consequences for local air and water quality. Dairies warn that costly methane capture systems could not be affordable otherwise. Adding to the expense of operating in California would cause more operations to leave the state. California dairies make up about two thirds of suppliers registered under the program. Dairy supporters successfully delayed proposed legislative requirements in 2023. CARB staff in May 2024 declined a petition seeking a faster approach to dairy regulation . Staff committed to take up a rulemaking considering the best way to address dairy methane reduction in 2025. Before that, final revisions to the LCFS approved in November included guarantees for dairy methane crediting. Projects that break ground by the end of this decade would remain eligible for up to 30 years of LCFS credit generation, compared with just 10 years for projects after 2029. Limits on the scope of book-and-claim participation for out-of-state projects would wait until well into the next decade. Staff said it was necessary to ensure continued investment in methane reduction. The inclusion immediately frustrated critics of the renewable natural gas policy, including board member Diane Tarkvarian, who sought to have the changes struck and was one of two votes ultimately against the LCFS revisions. Environmental groups have now sued , invoking violations that effectively froze the LCFS for years of court review. Regulators and lawmakers working to transition the state to cleaner air and lower-emissions vehicles will have to tread carefully in 2025. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows


24/12/24
24/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — A wave of new electric arc furnace steel mills coming on line next year could transform scrap flows in North America, while looming US import tariffs could stunt cross-border trade. Six steel mills in the US and Canada, accounting for about 9.9mn short tons (st)/yr of electric arc furnace (EAF) production, are ramping up from late this year or scheduled to start up in 2025. The new EAFs, mostly along the Mississippi River and in Ontario, could be magnets for scrap and reshape flows across the southeast, Midwest and Canada, as scrap-fed EAF steelmakers continue to expand their role in North America, which was historically dominated by coal and iron ore-fed blast furnaces. Although some scrap dealers are optimistic about markets in the new year, market participants are carefully monitoring the effect president-elect Donald Trump's hawkish trade policies could have on scrap trading. Trump has pledged to impose 25pc tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico that could further shift North American scrap flows. Canada is the largest shipper of ferrous scrap into the US at an average of 3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr since 2021. Prime scrap imports between January and October this year averaged 47,000t/month, while shred imports averaged 70,000t/month, US customs data shows. The import tax would drive up the cost of Canadian scrap for US buyers and potentially reduce supply available to steel mills in the Midwest. Scrap traders noted that Trump can be unpredictable and may be using the threat of tariffs as leverage. "I'm pretty tepid on the first quarter," one Midwest dealer said. "People are trying to figure out how serious Trump is on tariffs." New EAFs to drive scrap demand The new scrap-fed EAFs in North America include Algoma Steel in Ontario, Hybar in Arkansas, and Nippon Steel's and ArcelorMittal's joint venture in Alabama. US Steel's Big River Steel began melting scrap at its second Arkansas EAF in October. EAF steelmaker Hybar plans to open its 630,000 st/yr reinforcing bar mill in northeast Arkansas in the summer of 2025. Hybar, along with Big River Steel and three Nucor mills already in the region, could further bolster the lower Mississippi River basin as a major scrap market. "I'm looking forward to next year because of the increased competition," a Midwestern scrap dealer said. "It's always good to have options." The new consumption could position northeast Arkansas and Tennessee as perhaps the top scrap consuming region, making it an industry barometer in 2025. Chicago has historically held that position and has been the benchmark region in contracts. Shifting flows in Canada Algoma Steel plans to begin ramping up two new EAFs in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, in March next year to continue making hot-rolled coil and steel plate. The EAFs could eventually bring that facility's maximum steel production levels to 3.7mn st/yr once they fully replace Algoma's blast furnaces. The steelmaker will likely focus on low-copper shred and prime scrap grades to keep up the iron content in its melt mix as it transitions to EAF steelmaking, one Canadian scrap consumer said. Algoma may also continue to rely on raw inputs like direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron as it ramps up its scrap buying to feed the EAFs. Market participants in Canada expect the mill to buy scrap from the prairies west of Sault Ste Marie, as well as from the greater Toronto area to the mill's east, though Algoma will face competition to pull scrap from the latter region. Scrap dealers in the upper Midwest are also keen to supply Algoma Steel because buyers in that region are scarce. A Midwest dealer noted that Algoma may ship in scrap from US ports on the Great Lakes. Algoma did not respond to requests for comment on its raw material plans. In 2021, the company set up a joint venture with Triple M Metal, a Canadian scrap dealer with 45 yards, that will likely supply scrap for Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie. By James Marshall and Brad MacAulay US steel mill capacity additions Million short tons/yr Company Location Product type Capacity added Start date US Steel/Big River Steel Osceola, AR Sheet 3.00 RAMPING ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert, AL Sheet 1.65 2H 2024 Algoma Steel Sault Ste. Marie, ON Sheet 3.70 1Q 2025 Nucor Lexington, NC Bar 0.43 1Q 2025 Hybar Osceola, AR Bar 0.63 2Q 2025 CMC Berkeley, WV Bar 0.50 4Q 2025 Total 9.91 Argus reporting & public statements Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year


24/12/24
24/12/24

Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year

London, 24 December (Argus) — Ferro-vanadium (FeV) demand, which is closely tied to the carbon steel sector, has the potential to grow next year after a sluggish 2024, but economic and geopolitical uncertainties make conditions difficult to forecast. The outlook suggests FeV consumption will increase, driven by global steel production growth, particularly in countries such as India, as well as a potential rebound in key markets such as the US and Europe. The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) sees 2025 demand rising by 1.2pc to 1.772bn t, after a slight contraction this year. Most of the major economies, including China, are likely to record lower steel demand this year, although India bucks the trend, with robust demand growth expected throughout 2025. In developed economies, steel demand could grow by 1.9pc next year, driven by a recovery in the EU and, to a lesser extent, in the US and Japan. Buyers in Europe have been wary about purchasing large volumes of FeV in recent weeks, with fewer volumes expected in next year's long-term contracts as steel plants are looking for more flexibility and are "afraid of buying material that in the end they might not need", a trading firm said. Construction The construction sector remains a crucial driver of FeV consumption, primarily because of its dependence on steel for infrastructure projects. But the construction industry's challenges, particularly residential construction in developed economies, have dampened overall steel demand. High borrowing costs have stifled housing activity, with interest rate hikes slowing building projects. "A meaningful recovery in residential construction (in the EU, US and South Korea) is expected to begin from 2025 onwards with the expected easing of financing conditions," Worldsteel said. Rebar production also has faced challenges, with Chinese steel mills reducing output on lower demand from the real-estate sector up to September, when new rebar standards were introduced by China's government. The new standards were intended to encourage higher vanadium content in steel, but the anticipated FeV demand boost has not yet materialised because overall appetite for the alloy remains suppressed by ongoing struggles in China's real-estate sector. China's rebar output fell by 1.9pc on the year to 17.7mn t in October , with January-October output showing a 14pc drop from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Without any lift from China, European FeV prices remain driven primarily by weakness in the continent's own construction sector, which continues to limit steel rebar trading volumes. Argus' weekly Italian domestic rebar assessment was at €550/t ex-works on 11 December, marking an 11pc drop from the start of this year. Automotive The automotive sector, particularly the electric vehicles (EV) market, will be a key driver of FeV demand next year. High-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steel — a type of carbon steel known for its superior strength-to-weight ratio — is crucial for light vehicles and EVs. While light vehicles and EV manufacturing has slowed this year, with factory closures and inventory reductions by major carmakers such as Volkswagen and Stellantis , the industry is expected to recover next year as the push towards sustainability continues. The green transition, which includes renewable energy projects and electric grid expansions, will further contribute to the demand for HSLA steel and, by extension, FeV. But EV growth is likely to slow in the short term under the administration of US president-elect Donald Trump, who could prioritise traditional energy sectors, potentially limiting support for renewables, industry participants said. By Roxana Lazar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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