Grain corridor activity remains sluggish
The Black Sea grain corridor's activity continues to be sluggish since the grain deal extension in late November owing to slow vessel inspections and a general decrease in their number, which has significantly slowed exports of agricultural products from Ukraine.
The number of daily vessel inspections by the Joint Co-ordination Centre (JCC) remains critically slow, decreasing to an average of 3.5 per day for inbound ships and three per day for outbound vessels in November, with the Russian side deliberately slowing them, Ukraine's deputy infrastructure minister Yuriy Vaskov said on 7 December at a meeting organised by the Trend and Hedge Club.
The number inspections of ships inbound and outbound at Ukrainian seaports accelerated during Russia's brief suspension of its participation in the grain corridor deal in late October-early November, but has since slowed again. As of 7 December, at least 75 inbound vessels and 27 outbound were waiting for inspection by the JCC.
As a result, only 2.64 mn t of agricultural products were shipped from the Pivdennyi, Odessa and Chornomorsk (POC) ports last month, down by 1.63mn t from October.
Ukraine has officially appealed to the partners of the grain initiative — the UN and Turkey — and submitted proposals to ensure the effective operation of the JCC, including increasing exported volumes as well as transhipment capacity of POC ports, which are currently used only at around 50pc. Ukraine has also proposed conducting at least 12 inbound and outbound inspections per day each, which could ensure monthly shipments of around 6mn t of agricultural products from the country.
Ukraine, Turkey and the UN have agreed that 40-45 outbound vessel inspections per week would be optimal for grain corridor operation and efficiency, while the number of inspections has dropped to an average of 24 per week or even lower in recent weeks. To ensure this, the UN and Turkey, which are guarantors of the grain initiative, continue diplomatic negotiations with the Russian delegation.
To speed up the process, Ukraine additionally has suggested stopping inspections of outbound ships, with Turkey and the UN supporting the proposal, as well as redirecting small-sized ships to the Danube river ports, while using the POC ports for Handy-sized and Panamax-sized vessels.
The Black Sea grain corridor agreement, which was signed in Istanbul on 22 July on two mirror copies by Turkey and the UN with Ukraine and Russia separately for 120 days, was automatically renewed for the same period beginning on 19 November, and now will be valid until 19 March 2023.
About 13.3mn t of grains, oilseeds and by-products have been shipped from the POC ports since Ukraine's Black Sea exports resumed on 1 August, with at least 531 vessels departing for ports in Asia, Europe and Africa.
Related news posts
Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t
Ukraine corn 2024-25 output to fall to 22.9mn t
London, 28 August (Argus) — Argus forecasts Ukraine's 2024-25 corn production to fall sharply on the year and five-year average because unfavourable weather during development has cut yields, adding to pressure from lower areas on the year. Argus projects Ukraine's corn output at 22.9mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September), down from its estimate for 2023-24 at 31.5mn t. The new Argus forecast is also lower than the latest 2024-25 projections from the US Department of Agriculture at 27.2mn t. Record-high temperatures in July and a lack of rainfall has caused a potential drop in corn yields by 10-30pc this season compared with last year, when favourable weather conditions resulted in above-average yields in some regions. For the 2024-25 crop, yields have fallen in all key producing regions. Corn crops in western regions fared better than those in northern and central regions. Argus forecasts the 2024-25 average corn yields at 5.87 t/hectare (t/ha), significantly lower than Argus' 2023-24 estimate of 7.78 t/ha for last year. Total 2024-25 corn harvested areas are forecast at 3.89mn ha, down by 2pc on the year. Areas might shrink further because some farmers have used crops from their worse-off fields for silage. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions
Low water spurs Mississippi River restrictions
Houston, 27 August (Argus) — The US Coast Guard implemented draft restrictions for the lower Mississippi River yesterday as water levels fall. Beginning from around Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Rosedale, Mississippi, southbound barge drafts cannot be greater than 11ft and tow more than seven barges wide. Southbound transit from Rosedale to Tunica, Mississippi, cannot have a draft deeper than 11.5ft. Northbound drafts from Tunica to Tiptonville cannot be greater than 10ft. The operating drafts were reduced to 9ft in mid-October , but water levels began declining in June last year. The low water threshold of -2ft has been passed at Tunica Mhoon Landing, Mississippi, reaching -3.4ft. Memphis, Tennessee is only 2.5ft above its low water threshold. The US Coast Guard has initiated a 9ft draft requirement over the last two years when several points along the lower Mississippi have fallen below their low water threshold. Multiple sites on the lower Mississippi are forecast to reach their low water thresholds by the second week of September, according to the National Weather Service. Southbound freight rates are likely to rise as draft restrictions force barge carriers to employ larger fleets to move the same volumes, especially as crop harvests continue. With restrictions on the number of towable barges, more transits will have to occur for both south and northbound products. Grain exporters at New Orleans have taken to the sidelines as the risk of grain being caught on the lower Mississippi River has increased. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF
Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF
Sydney, 27 August (Argus) — Australian canola production is expected to fall in 2024-25 following a smaller expected harvest area and a mixed crop outlook across regions, according to the Australian Oilseeds Federation's (AOF) August crop report. The AOF projects canola production to fall by 367,000t to 5.44mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24. The area harvested is expected to fall by 356,000 hectares (ha) to 3.24mn ha, which is 36,000 ha more than the AOF's forecast made in June . Production is set to fall in all states, except New South Wales (NSW), which is anticipated to increase by 330,000t to 1.67mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24 despite a smaller harvest area. NSW cropping regions have benefited from favourable rainfall and good soil moisture levels and are expected to reach average or above average yields. But crops in southern and southwestern regions are behind on typical growth and will need continuing favourable seasonal conditions to reach below average yield potential. The AOF also warned that more advanced crops are subject to frost risk. The largest harvested area reduction was in Western Australia (WA), which accounted for 45pc of total production in 2023-24, according to AOF sourced estimates. Growers reduced their canola plantings because of a hot and dry summer and the absence of a material rainfall event to start the growing season during April-May. Further reductions resulted as crops were abandoned and resown with alternative crops. The US Department of Agriculture expects a larger crop in 2024-25, projecting Australian canola output at 5.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year. By Edward Dunlop Australian canola harvest area, production 2023-24 2024-25 y-o-y ± Harvest area (ha) NSW 866,000 820,000 -5% Victoria 601,000 600,000 -0% South Australia 284,000 260,000 -8% WA 1,845,000 1,560,000 -15% Total 3,596,000 3,240,000 -10% Production (t) NSW 1,340,000 1,670,000 25% Victoria 1,410,000 1,245,000 -12% South Australia 468,000 400,000 -15% WA 2,584,000 2,120,000 -18% Total 5,802,000 5,435,000 -6% Source: AOF Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume
Canadian labor board orders rail service to resume
Houston, 25 August (Argus) — Canada's two Class I railroads avoided a crippling extended work stoppage on Saturday, after an independent labor board upheld the Canadian government's order for the railroads to enter binding arbitration with a labor union representing more than 9,000 rail employees. The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), in two separate orders, directed the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to enter binding arbitration with the nation's two Class I railroads — Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN). The order heads off an extended work stoppage that would have echoed across North American supply chains for virtually all commodities, from crude, refined products, LPG and coal to fertilizers like potash, as well as consumer and industrial goods. Virtually all railed shipments carried by CN and CPKC came to a grinding halt early on 22 August after months-long talks between the railroads and the TCRC hit an impasse. Later the same day, the Canadian government stepped in to force parties into binding arbitration, but the TCRC said it would not abide by the directive without a ruling from the CIRB. In its rulings, the CIRB ordered CN and CPKC employees represented by the TCRC to resume their duties as of 12:01 am EDT on 26 August and remain "until the final binding interest arbitration process is completed". The CIRB also ruled that no further labor stoppages, including lockouts or strikes, could occur during the arbitration process, effectively voiding a TCRC strike notice issued on 23 August for CN workers set to take effect on 26 August. CN and CPKC said they will comply with the CIRB order, and CPKC asked TCRC employees to return to work on 25 August "so that we can get the Canadian economy moving again as quickly as possible and avoid further disruption to supply chains". The TCRC said it would comply with the CIRB decision, even though it sets a "dangerous precedent". TCRC plans to appeal the ruling in federal court. "The ruling signals to corporate Canada that large companies need only stop their operations for a few hours, inflict short-term economic pain, and the federal government will step in to break a union," TCRC president Paul Boucher said. "The rights of Canadian workers have been significantly diminished today." It could take weeks for Canadian rail operations to return to normal. CPKC said it could take several weeks for its rail network to fully recover from the work stoppage and even longer for supply chains to stabilize. Canadian railroads last week embargoed shipments of toxic materials and earlier this week stopped loading any new railcars. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more