Marine fuel global weekly market update

: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
23/07/11

A weekly Argus news digest of interest to the conventional and alternative marine fuel markets. To speak to our team about accessing the stories below and access to Argus Marine Fuels, please contact marinefuels@argusmedia.com.

Alternative marine fuels

7 July IMO sets 2050 net zero target in revised GHG strategy The International Maritime Organisation adopted a revised greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions strategy today at the 80th meeting of its Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) in London.

7 July IMO revised GHG strategy gets mixed reactions The International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) adoption of its revised greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy today has received mixed reactions from industry and nation states.

7 July Q&A: HVO blend in Swedish diesel could drop below 1pc The Swedish government proposed to cut the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota mandate for gasoline and diesel to 6pc for 2024-26, from the previously legislated 30pc for diesel and 7.8pc for gasoline in 2024. This could see the share of HVO blended in the country's diesel pool fall below 1pc by volume, Swedish Bioenergy Association's (Svebio) program director and biofuel expert Tomas Ekbom told Argus.

7 July Taiwan's WHL sets elevated GHG shipping emissions goals Taiwan-based container shipping company Wan Hai Lines' (WHL) has set itself greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets for 2030 and 2050 above that currently mandated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).

7 July LNG Canada expansion faces electrification hurdle LNG Canada is weighing whether to move forward with expansion of its liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility in British Columbia, with electricity access a key obstacle.

7 July UK government faces new legal challenge on emissions Three environmental organisations have filed a request for a judicial review of the UK government's revised net zero strategy, which was released at the end of March.

6 July Elbehafen LNG undergoes brief maintenance after storm Germany's 2.7mn t/yr Elbehafen LNG terminal was set to undergo "several hours" of works today, as high winds damaged some of the terminal's equipment, state-owned terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminal said today.

6 July IMO GHG outcome still unclear ahead closing plenary The International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy is due to be adopted tomorrow, but progress made towards tougher targets and potential economic measures such as carbon levies remains unclear.

6 July Biofuel Express to sell Neste's HVO in Denmark Scandinavian biofuel distributer Biofuel Express will sell Neste's hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), called ‘My Renewable Diesel', in Denmark, according to an agreement between the two companies.

6 July Japan's Mitsui buys into Danish renewable energy firm Japanese trading firm Mitsui has acquired a stake in Danish Kasso MidCo, an affiliate of Danish renewable energy firm European Energy.

6 July BP invests in WasteFuels global biomethanol network BP has committed to invest $10mn in Californian sustainable fuels company WasteFuel to develop a global network of biomethanol plants.

6 July Japan's Mitsui buys into Danish renewable energy firm Japanese trading firm Mitsui has acquired a stake in Danish Kasso MidCo, an affiliate of Danish renewable energy firm European Energy.

5 July Kairos LNG bunker vessel grounded near Amsterdam The 7,500m³ Kairos LNG bunker vessel was grounded earlier today near Amsterdam in the Netherlands and has since returned to port, German shipping operator Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) confirmed.

5 July Orsted reach agreement for second methanol-powered SOV Danish energy company Orsted has reached an agreement with vessel operator Esvagt for the supply of a second methanol-powered service operational vessel (SOV), following the development of the world's first methanol-powered SOV by the same collaboration last year.

5 July Volvo to use biodiesel based fuel for ocean freight Swedish carmaker Volvo, in conjunction with freight companies Maersk, Kuehne and Nagel and DB Schenker, will receive material for the production of its cars from container ships using renewable biodiesel-based fuel.

5 July Shipper ONE more than halves CO2 emissions Japanese container shipping company Ocean Network Express (ONE) cut its CO2 emissions by 58.5pc to 9.39mn metric tonnes (t) in 2022 from a 2008 baseline, through lower fuel consumption, operational improvements, and the use of biofuel.

5 July Marathon files permit to up Detroit refinery rates US independent refiner Marathon Petroleum has filed for a permit to operate its 140,000 b/d Detroit, Michigan, refinery at higher utilization rates than are currently allowed under air pollution requirements.

5 July CNOOC's Ningbo supplies LNG bunker vessel Chinese state-controlled CNOOC's 6mn t/yr Ningbo LNG terminal filled an LNG bunkering vessel to operate in China's Ningbo-Zhoushan port on 11 June, the firm said.

4 July Dutch HBE bookings down on significant 2022 carry over Dutch oil companies booked 1.63mn of 2023 renewable fuel units (HBE) into the Energy for Transport Register (REV) by 1 July, down by around 61pc compared with the same time last year. But the number of HBEs carried over from the previous compliance year was 58pc higher than a year earlier.

4 July Marine fuel output location key for GHG: South Korea South Korea highlighted during International Maritime Organisation (IMO) discussions the need to consider the location of future alternative marine fuel production sites carefully in order to hit greenhouse gas (GHG) targets given that many states are reliant on imports.

3 July Mabanaft acquires Oiltanking Copenhagen terminal Integrated trading company Mabanaft has agreed to buy tank storage provider Oiltanking's liquid storage Copenhagen terminal, and is looking to provide additional capacity for low carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), advanced biofuels and hydrogen.

3 July Divisions continue to delay IMO GHG strategy The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) began the 80th meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) in London today, with member states deeply divided on emissions.

3 July South Korea's HSHI receives order for LNG carrier pair South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries (HSHI) has received an order for two LNG carriers.

3 July Ammonia specialist Amogy develops Singapore operations US-based ammonia fuel cell specialist Amogy will begin operations in Singapore, as the company expands its strategic focus on Asian markets.

Conventional marine fuels

7 July Brazil's gasoline, diesel imports rise in June Heated demand for gasoline in the domestic market drove the increase in Brazil's motor fuel imports in June.

7 July Mexico ups regular gasoline, diesel tax offsets Mexico's finance ministry this week increased the deduction on the excise tax (IEPS) for regular gasoline and diesel despite declines in US retail prices.

7 July Japan's Mizushima refinery halts operations after fire Japanese refiner Eneos has halted refining operations at its 150,000 b/d in its Mizushima-A refinery because of a fire that broke out on 5 July.

6 July Drought in Argentina hinders VLSFO demand Argentina very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) sales for the first quarter declined by 12pc because of continuous drought conditions that have curbed bunker demand.

6 July Greek finished diesel exports running out of road Greece may struggle to maintain its customary level of diesel exports to its Mediterranean neighbours unless it can find an alternative feedstock to semi-processed Russian gasoil.

6 July China's CNOOC completes first LNG bunkering reload Chinese state-controlled CNOOC hasreloaded and delivered LNG to a customer for the first time using its 30,000m³ LNG bunkering carrier Hai Yang Shi You 301.

6 July Diesel prompt premiums spike in northwest Europe Front-month Ice gasoil futures spiked at $18.50/t above the second-month contract at the close of trading on 5 July, marking the highest premium for prompt delivery since strike action shut most of France's refineries at the end of March. But traders are expecting a boost in supply later this month with fresh gasoil cargoes on the way to Europe from east of Suez.

6 July Venezuela ends diesel subsidy for most drivers Venezuela has lifted an almost full subsidy on diesel for most drivers and is charging 32¢/l ($1.21/USG), according to a notice from state-owned PdV to the association of retail stations.

6 July PetroPeru offers two fuel oil cargoes State-owned PetroPeru has issued a tender for two high-sulphur residual fuel oil (HSFO) cargoes totaling 210,000 bl for later this month.

6 July Singapore's light distillate stocks at seven-month low Singapore's onshore oil product inventories fell to a two-week low of 41.84mn bl in the week to 5 July, because of drops in light and middle distillate stocks.

6 July Japan's Cosmo sells HSFO on coker issues Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil has sold rare high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) cargoes, after coker unit issues at its 100,000 b/d Sakai refinery resulted in excess residuals from its Yokkaichi plant.

5 July Monjasa boosts Singapore bunker operations Denmark fuels trader and terminal operator Monjasa has expanded its Asia bunkering operations in Singapore.

5 July Fire at Bayernoil refinery to hit gasoil production A fire has curtailed production at the 86,000 b/d Neustadt refinery in Germany, part of the 207,000 b/d Bayernoil complex.

5 July Canada's west coast port workers on strike Port operations on Canada's west coast have slowed significantly as port workers have been on strike since 1 July.

5 July Kuwait's al-Zour launches final crude distillation unit The third and final crude distillation unit (CDU) of Kuwait's new 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery has started, refinery operator Kipic said on 5 July.

5 July Biofuel Express to sell Neste's HVO in Denmark Scandinavian biofuel distributer Biofuel Express will sell Neste's hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), called ‘My Renewable Diesel', in Denmark, according to an agreement between the two companies.

4 July WAF diesel imports down as Indian volumes slow in June West African diesel cargo imports hit a four-month low in June as Indian supply dried up.

3 July Dutch refineries ramped up in April Oil products refining and trading activity in the Netherlands picked up significantly in April, with surging middle distillate refinery yields and an apparent hindrance to gasoline production caused by limited naphtha imports.

3 July Brazil's diesel, gasoline sales up in May Brazil's diesel consumption increased in May as the domestic economy strengthened, while gasoline sales jumped as favorable economics boosted its consumption against ethanol at the pump.

3 July Jodi: UK refinery output and demand fell again in May UK refinery output and oil demand fell on an annual basis in May, but the rate of contraction slowed compared with April amid a mixed economic picture.

3 July Kuwait' al-Zour refinery unit fire put out Kuwait's state-owned Kipic said that a fire that broke out earlier at Unit 12 of the 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery was put out on 2 July with no injuries reported, according to state news agency Kuna.

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — California must begin crafting dairy methane limits next year as pressure grows for regulators to change course. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has committed to begin crafting regulations that could mandate the reduction of dairy methane as it locked in incentives for harvesting gas to fuel vehicles in the state. The combination has frustrated environmental groups and other opponents of a methane capture strategy they accuse of collateral damage. Now, tough new targets pitched to help balance the program's incentives could become the fall-out in a new lawsuit. State regulators have repeatedly said that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is ill-suited to consider mostly off-road emissions from a sector that could pack up and move to another state to escape regulation. California's LCFS requires yearly reductions of transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the state of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Regulators extended participation in the program to dairy methane in 2017. Dairies may register to use manure digesters to capture methane that suppliers may process into pipeline-quality natural gas. This gas may then be attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles in California, so long as participants can show a path for approved supplies between the dairy and the customer. California only issues credits for methane cuts beyond other existing requirements. Regulators began mandating methane reductions from landfills more than a decade ago and in 2016 set similar requirements for wastewater treatment plants. But while lawmakers set a goal for in-state dairies to reduce methane emissions by 40pc from 2030 levels, regulators could not even consider rulemakings mandating such reductions until 2024. CARB made no move to directly regulate those emissions at their first opportunity, as staff grappled with amendments to the agency's LCFS and cap-and-trade programs. That has meant that dairies continue to receive credit for all of the methane they capture, generating deep, carbon-reducing scores under the LCFS and outsized credit production relative to the fuel they replace. Dairy methane harvesting generated 16pc of all new credits generated in 2023, compared with biodiesel's 6pc. Dairy methane replaced just 38pc of the diesel equivalent gallons that biodiesel did over the same period. The incentive has exasperated environmental and community groups, who see LCFS credits as encouraging larger operations with more consequences for local air and water quality. Dairies warn that costly methane capture systems could not be affordable otherwise. Adding to the expense of operating in California would cause more operations to leave the state. California dairies make up about two thirds of suppliers registered under the program. Dairy supporters successfully delayed proposed legislative requirements in 2023. CARB staff in May 2024 declined a petition seeking a faster approach to dairy regulation . Staff committed to take up a rulemaking considering the best way to address dairy methane reduction in 2025. Before that, final revisions to the LCFS approved in November included guarantees for dairy methane crediting. Projects that break ground by the end of this decade would remain eligible for up to 30 years of LCFS credit generation, compared with just 10 years for projects after 2029. Limits on the scope of book-and-claim participation for out-of-state projects would wait until well into the next decade. Staff said it was necessary to ensure continued investment in methane reduction. The inclusion immediately frustrated critics of the renewable natural gas policy, including board member Diane Tarkvarian, who sought to have the changes struck and was one of two votes ultimately against the LCFS revisions. Environmental groups have now sued , invoking violations that effectively froze the LCFS for years of court review. Regulators and lawmakers working to transition the state to cleaner air and lower-emissions vehicles will have to tread carefully in 2025. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US demand for butadiene (BD) is expected to increase in January, but buyer sentiment for the remainder of the first quarter remains uncertain. Inventory restocking in January is expected to draw down excess supply and provide near-term price support, according to market participants. Derivative manufacturers aim to rebuild inventories following earlier-than-normal destocking initiatives this year. Many buyers employ standard inventory control management strategies to avoid paying higher end-of-year inventory taxes, particularly in Texas. Others cut costs to improve year-end financial statements. Domestic demand in February and March is less clear, as market participants question whether the market will rebound from persistently low demand at the end of 2024. US BD prices on a contract basis fell by 12pc during the fourth quarter , owing to weak demand and oversupply. Demand was depressed by BD consumer turnarounds in October, seasonal slowdowns between November-December and trade pressures tied to derivative imports. US tire shipments this year are expected to rise by 2.1pc to 338.9mn units, surpassing the record set in 2021, according to the US Tire Manufacturers Association. However, market participants along with US trade data reference a jump in tire imports from Asia-Pacific. Both Bridgestone and Goodyear have said low-cost tire imports and structural changes in segment profitability across the Americas are eroding their market share, fueling capacity rationalization, asset sell-offs and plant closures in the region. Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) is another segment at risk of stronger competition from low-cost, Asia-origin imports. Ineos Styrolution plans to permanently shut down its ABS plant in Addyston, Ohio, in 2025 because the facility cannot compete with imported material. "Over the past few years, we have seen the ABS market become increasingly competitive, particularly with growing competition from overseas imports," Ineos Styrolution chief executive Steve Harrington said in late October. Protectionist trade policies are likely to be a feature of president-elect Donald Trump's second administration, potentially altering business investment decisions and durable goods trade flows. Even if demand does not improve, planned maintenance in the first half of 2025 is expected to tighten BD supplies. A heavy turnaround cycle for steam crackers will concentrate in the first and second quarters, constraining availability of feedstock crude C4. One integrated US Gulf coast producer plans to enforce BD allocations while its assets are offline for planned maintenance. A separate, non-integrated producer has not announced BD sales controls, based on feedback from its customers. This same BD supplier was short on feedstock supplies for parts of this year, with the crude C4 merchant market illiquid in North America. A third producer has scheduled a cracker turnaround starting in January, but no indications emerged that would limit term volumes from its BD unit. Reduced BD supply during cracker maintenance is likely to pull volumes away from the export market until the second half of 2025. Export spot cargoes in the fourth quarter more than doubled from the third quarter, serving as a critical outlet to clear the domestic market of surplus BD supplies, even as lower export prices pressured US margins. By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Cash prices of high-octane gasoline blending components in the US Gulf coast are likely to rise in 2025 after a year of declines as lower refining capacity starts to thin stocks. Alkylate and reformate cash prices and differentials have been lower over the course of 2024, in part from weaker refining margins. The lower margins are reflected in the region's crack spreads, which narrowed to $12.94/USG on 19 December from $18.67/USG a year earlier, as abundant supply in the region met weak demand . Inventories in the region have also been lower over the course of the year. Stocks in the region fell in November by 2pc from a year earlier to an average 29.75mn bl. US Gulf coast crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook, brought on by lower overall product demand, especially for gasolin e . But the EIA expects spreads to hold steady next year, even with a decrease in refining capacity, potentially supporting prices for high-octane components. The upcoming year will also bring a significant refinery closure to the region, which should reduce production and raise cash prices of components such as alkylate and reformate. LyondellBasell's closure of its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is scheduled to start in January. The refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), which converts vacuum gasoil primarily into gasoline blendstocks, is expected to be shut in February, followed by a complete end to crude refining by the end of the first quarter. US total refining capacity should fall to 17.9mn b/d by the end of 2025, according to the EIA, 400,000 b/d less than at the end of 2024, with the lower production leading to price increases. Although the LyondellBasell closing should eventually give crack spreads in the region a boost, some in the industry do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels of refining margins in the immediate future. CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp said in November the company needed "to see additional refining capacity rationalization in both the US and globally" for crack spreads to gain ground. An increase in consumer demand for gasoline would also support a rise in cash prices and differentials for high-octane components. But the EIA in December forecast consumption nationwide would rise in 2025 by only 10,000 b/d, or 0.1pc, to 8.95mn b/d. By Jason Metko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

24/12/24

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

Moscow, 24 December (Argus) — ЛП Транс повысит перевозки по итогам 2024 г. примерно на 25%, до более 16,5 млн т. Вместе с тем средний оборот подвижного состава у компании вырос примерно на 30%, однако пока увеличения количества вагонов не требуется. О тенденциях на рынке перевозок минеральных удобрений рассказал Argus генеральный директор ЛП Транса Роман Воронцов. — Каковы операционные результаты компании за январь — ноябрь? Удалось ли улучшить показатели по сравнению с прошлым годом? — За 11 месяцев мы перевезли более 15 млн т промышленно-сырьевых грузов, включая как сырье для производства удобрений, так и готовый продукт. Рост к аналогичному периоду прошлого года составил 24%. До конца текущего года мы планируем переступить планку в 16,5 млн т и прибавить 25% к итогу 2023 г., когда было перевезено 13,2 млн т различных грузов. Соответственно растет и число вагоноотправок: до конца года мы намерены осуществить 237—240 тыс. отправок против 191 тыс. в прошлом году — рост также ожидается примерно на четверть. — Были ли в этом году какие-то значимые изменения в направлениях отгрузок или структуре перевозимой продукции? — Главным изменением стала переориентация большинства поставок на внутренний рынок. Ранее нашими основными направлениями были порты Балтики и страны СНГ. Теперь же нам открылись новые направления внутри страны, и по большей части мы ориентируемся на внутренние перевозки. Например, у нас выросли объемы транспортировки сырья для выпуска минеральных удобрений в адрес заводов-производителей, а также перевозки цемента для производителей стройматериалов и строительных компаний. — Какие планы на наступающий год? — В 2025 г. мы будем укреплять позиции в сегменте перевозок промышленно-сырьевых и химических грузов, прогнозируем рост в пределах 5%. Также мы продолжим повышать качество услуг, расширять их ассортимент, наша задача — предлагать клиентам не просто вагоны, а оптимальное решение их логистических задач. Планируем сфокусироваться на большей интеграции наших технологий с технологиями клиентов, будем развивать комплексное обслуживание с гарантией надежности перевозок. Таким образом, считаем наш прогноз роста оправданным. — Каким парком сейчас оперирует компания? — На данный момент в управлении компании находится порядка 20 тыс. вагонов, из которых 1,3 тыс. — цементовозы, а оставшиеся — хопперы для перевозок минеральных удобрений, в том числе большекубовые, а также инновационный парк с увеличенной грузоподъемностью. Годом ранее наш парк был схожим по объему, однако теперь он отличается качественно в лучшую сторону. Мы работаем над совершенствованием и техническим обновлением парка, делаем фокус на вагоны с улучшенными техническими и коммерческими характеристиками. В рамках стратегии Группы Деметра Холдинг в 2023 г. было списано порядка 6,2 тыс. вагонов, это выбытие парка мы компенсировали покупкой новых вагонов. За счет этого мы получили большое конкурентное преимущество в виде молодого подвижного состава с улучшенными характеристиками, который не только более привлекателен для клиентов, но и позволяет оптимизировать нагрузку на железнодорожную инфраструктуру. Средний возраст парка снизился с более чем 15 лет до шести-восьми лет, что является одним из лучших показателей по отрасли. Больших списаний вагонов-хопперов в ближайшее время не планируется, соответственно, парк под нашим управлением считаю в целом достаточным для удовлетворения перспективных потребностей наших клиентов. — Рост оборота подвижного состава на сети РЖД не вынуждает увеличивать парк для обеспечения потребностей клиентов? — Замедление оборачиваемости парка — общая проблема для игроков операторского рынка ввиду загруженности инфраструктуры общего пользования и нехватки тяговых ресурсов. Средний оборот вагона у нас довольно сильно увеличился за прошедший год, на ряде направлений рост превысил 30%. К примеру, при перевозках цемента во внутрироссийском сообщении на расстояния до 700 км средний оборот замедлился до 25—27 суток по сравнению с 17—18 сутками годом ранее. Однако к вопросу увеличения парка мы подходим крайне взвешенно. Новые вагоны должны приобретаться только под заключенные контракты, и с нашими клиентами мы проводим подробные консультации относительно того, какой подвижной состав им был бы интересен. Львиная доля наших грузов — в частности, сырье, апатитовый концентрат — имеет высокую плотность, и для их перевозок требуются вагоны со стандартной кубатурой, но повышенной грузоподъемностью. А некоторые грузы с малым удельным весом, к примеру, удобрения азотной группы, в частности, карбамид, напротив, тяготеют к более вместительному подвижному составу. Помимо этого, мы постоянно работаем над повышением эффективности использования наших вагонов, и наша позиция крупнейшего независимого оператора вагонов-хопперов на рынке промышленно-сырьевых грузов дает нам дополнительные возможности по оптимизации логистики. Поэтому текущего размера парка нам хватает. — А что вы думаете о контейнеризации перевозок удобрений? Видите ли перспективы в этом направлении? — Перевод части грузопотока в контейнеры — это все же вынужденная мера. Как вы знаете, северо-западные порты — это основное направление для экспорта удобрений. Порты Прибалтики для нас уже неактуальны, а российских профильных портовых мощностей пока еще недостаточно, прежде всего складских, поэтому контейнеры, использующиеся, как маленькие склады на колесах, оказались выходом из ситуации. Но временным: в 2025 г. ожидается ввод в эксплуатацию терминала Port Favor в Усть-Луге, и спрос на контейнерную схему должен ослабнуть. Все-таки выполняется много лишней работы: пересыпка удобрений из хоппера в контейнер, а из контейнера — непосредственно в бункер сухогруза. Возможно, какой-то дефицит складских портовых мощностей для удобрений все же будет сохраняться и в будущем, а значит, некоторые объемы также будут перевозиться в контейнерах. Но нам кажется, что такой подвижной состав будет занимать не более 10% грузооборота в сегменте. Сейчас он занимает 15%, еще 68% приходится на хопперы, а оставшиеся 17% перевозятся в полувагонах и крытом парке. — Какими вы видите перспективы международных транспортных коридоров Север — Юг и Запад — Восток в 2024—2025 гг. с точки зрения перевозок удобрений? — По коридору Север — Юг все будет зависеть от готовности инфраструктуры и портовых мощностей. Ведь если инфраструктура не будет готова, то перспективы, соответственно, довольно туманные. На Восточном полигоне, как всем известно, провозных мощностей тоже недостаточно. — В 2025 г. ожидается сокращение перевозок угля на восток, что открывает возможности для экспорта, в том числе — минеральных удобрений. Увеличит ли это среднюю дальность перевозки и, как следствие, оборот парка? — Мы готовы к таким вызовам. Если больше грузов будет отправляться на Дальний Восток, соответственно, сократятся объемы поставок через северо-запад. При смене маршрута увеличение оборота парка ожидается в пределах 50—60%. Мы постоянно отслеживаем рыночные тенденции, и если увидим, что есть такой потенциал, конечно, мы примем все меры для того, чтобы отработать и выполнить заявки клиентов. Роман Воронцов Родился в 1978 г. В 2006 г. окончил Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения по специальности Организация перевозок и управление на транспорте (железнодорожном). В 1995—2002 гг. — дежурный по станции Балтийская Октябрьской железной дороги. В 2002—2016 гг. — начальник отдела организации перевозок, а затем заместитель генерального директора по внутрироссийским перевозкам компании РВД-Сервис. В 2016—2022 гг. — работал на руководящих должностях в операторских компаниях группы Рустранском. С 1 марта 2022 г. по настоящее время — генеральный директор компании ЛП Транс. ЛП Транс Железнодорожный оператор по перевозке промышленно-сырьевых и минерально-химических насыпных грузов в вагонах-хопперах. Входит в структуру Деметра-Холдинга. В 2023 г. компания перевезла более 13,3 млн т различных грузов. В управлении компании находятся около 20 тыс. вагонов-хопперов, в том числе 18,7 тыс. минераловозов и 1,3 тыс. цементовозов. Константин Мозговой Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

24/12/24

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

London, 24 December (Argus) — European ethanol producers may face rising output costs in 2025 as a poorer harvest season will push feedstock prices up, while other factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values could affect the price of finished products. Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor 2024-25 harvest, particularly for wheat. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. And rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This will likely weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. Nuts 2 It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values — the so called Nuts 2 values. To determine the GHG emissions from growing crops in the EU, the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) allows the use of typical units that represent the average GHG value in a specific area. On the back of the implementation of the recast of RED (RED II), the European Commission requested an update of the Nuts 2 GHG values. Member states have to prepare new crop reports to be assessed by the commission. But reports have been slow to emerge, while those that have been submitted face a lengthy review. Producers rely on GHG values to calculate the GHG savings of end-products, but default RED values currently in place are significantly lower than the typical GHG values from Nuts 2. While this is unlikely to have long-term effects beyond 2025, in the current context finding values that meet market participants' criteria has been difficult for some, which may support prices. Rising demand Demand for waste-based and ethanol with higher GHG savings should increase in 2025 as a result of policy changes, after lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets kept buying interest in check in 2024. Tickets are generated by companies supplying biofuels for transport. They are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet renewables mandates. The decline in prices for GHG tickets in Germany — the main demand centre for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol — weighed on ethanol consumption in 2024, squeezing the differential to product with lower GHG savings. The premium averaged around €17/m³ ($17.7/m³) from 1 January-1 December 2024, down from around €43/m³ during the same period in 2023. But an increase in Germany's GHG quota in 2025, coupled with Germany's decision to pause the use of GHG certificates carried forward from previous compliance years towards the 2025 and 2026 blending mandate, should increase physical blending and lift premiums for ethanol with high GHG savings, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the Netherlands' ministry of infrastructure and water management's plan to reduce the amount of Dutch tickets that obligated companies will be able to carry forward to 2025 to 10pc from 25pc may have little effect on Dutch double-counting ethanol premiums in 2025. Participants expect steady premiums, despite slightly higher overall blending targets. The Argus double-counting ethanol fob ARA premium to crop-based ethanol fob ARA averaged €193/m³ from 1 February-1 December 2024. Biomethanol slows Lower ticket prices in the UK have kept a lid on demand for alternative waste-based gasoline blendstock biomethanol. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price averaged $1,089/t from 1 Jauary-1 December, compared with $1,229/t during the same period of 2023. The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels, if relying on gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, continues to slow negotiations for 2025 imports of biomethanol of US origin into the EU. But demand for biomethanol and e-methanol could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector as shipowners seek to reduce emissions after the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation comes into effect. Shipping giant Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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