Indian generation growth points to coal supply mismatch

: Coal, Electricity
24/06/06

India's coal-fired power generation in May grew at its fastest pace in the previous seven months, dwarfing the rate of increase in domestic coal supplies to utilities, a trend that could exacerbate an inventory drawdown at power plants and support the outlook for imports.

India's overall coal-fired generation — which meets most of the country's power requirements — rose by 13pc from a year earlier to 119.54TWh last month, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). May coal-fired generation was also higher from April's 116.5TWh, the highest monthly output since at least since 2016, according to Argus data. The year-on-year growth last month was the highest since October 2023 when coal-fired generation increased by 33pc from the same month in 2022. The generation growth hovered between 2-10pc during November 2023-April 2024.

Domestic coal supplies to utilities also grew to cater for the increase in power output and demand but the pace of growth was softer than the rate of increase in generation. Domestic coal supplies to utilities grew by 7pc from a year earlier to 74.22mn t in May, according to data from the coal ministry. Average growth during January-May was 7pc this year, up from 6pc a year earlier but still weaker than the average 10pc growth in coal-fired generation in the same period this year.

This has led to an increased inventory drawdown, especially as summer heatwaves supported power demand, lifting the prospect of stable coal imports by Indian firms, led by the utilities. Combined coal stocks at Indian power plants slipped by 6.2pc to 47.55mn t as of 4 June from 50.69mn t on 31 March, the end of India's 2023-24 fiscal year, according to CEA data. The drop in inventories has been cushioned by a steady increase in domestic coal output and supplies, along with an increase in imports.

The country might have imported 17.05mn t of thermal coal last month, according to data from global trade analytics firm Kpler. This would be up on the previous month's 16mn t but down from 17.65mn t estimated for May 2023 by Kpler. Data for last month's coal imports are yet to be released by shipbroker Interocean but it estimated imports at 16.99mn t for April, up from 16.46mn t a year earlier.

The increase in domestic coal supplies and imports comes as authorities have implemented measures to ensure steady power supplies to meet peak summer electricity demand. The measures include directives from the federal power ministry to utilities that run on domestic coal to use 6pc imported coal in their fuel mix until 30 June. The ministry has also asked power plants that run on imported coal to keep power generation levels high until 15 October, supporting the prospect of higher imports from these utilities. These coal-fired plants have a combined capacity of 17.5GW.

Authorities are re-evaluating the order to domestic coal-fired utilities for importing coal for blending. The directive might not be extended beyond June, given the prospects for above average monsoon rainfall this year that could lift hydropower generation and put pressure on coal-fired output, a government official told Argus.

Domestic coal supply mix

State-controlled Coal India (CIL), which meets most of India's coal requirements, supplied 55.81mn t of coal to the power sector, up by 5.7pc from a year earlier and from 51.88mn t in April. This was supported by growth in its output and overall supplies last month. CIL produced 64.4mn t in May, 7.5pc higher from a year earlier.

Higher supplies by CIL helped to partly offset reduced flows to the power sector by fellow coal producer Singareni Collieries (SCCL) in May. SCCL supplied 5.18mn t, down by 2.8pc from a year earlier and nearly unchanged from 5.17mn t in April. SCCL's overall output dropped by 2.4pc from a year earlier in May to 5.73mn t, coal ministry data show.

Captive coal block producers and other small government mining entities comprised the remainder of supplies to utilities last month.

Generation mix

India's hydropower output last month rose by 7pc from a year earlier to 12.26TWh, according to CEA data. This was also up from 8.11TWh in April. The increase was partly supported by increased flows at dams, with snowmelt from the mountains boosting river flows, the government official added.

India's gas-based power generation increased to 5.05TWh in May, up from 2.83TWh a year earlier, CEA data show. This rose following an order from the power ministry in April to boost output between 1 May-30 June to help partly meet summer demand.

Renewable power output rose to 21.07TWh in May, up from 18.12TWh a year earlier, according to grid operator Grid Controller of India, also known as Posoco. Increased wind generation during the month partly supported the higher renewable power output and helped to meet electricity demand, the official added.

India's nuclear power generation was 4.39TWh in May, up from 3.50TWh a year earlier.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

Growth in coal-fired power vs coal supplies to utilities 2024 (y-o-y % ±)

Growth in coal-fired power vs coal supplies to utilities 2023 (y-o-y % ±)

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/04/07

Flooding on US rivers mires barge transit

Houston, 7 April (Argus) — Barge transit slowed across the Arkansas, Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers over the weekend because of flooding, which prompted the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to close locks and issue transit restrictions along the waterways. The Corps advised all small craft to limit or halt transit on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MCKARNS) in Arkansas because flows reached above 200,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), nearly three times the high-water flow. The heavy flow is expected to persist throughout the week, posing risks to those transiting the river system, said the Corps. Some barges have halted movement on the river, temporarily miring fertilizer resupply efforts in Arkansas and Oklahoma in the middle of the urea application season. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday, and the National Weather Service predicts several locations along the MCKARNS will maintain a moderate to minor flood stage into Friday as well. Both the Arthur V Ormond Lock and the Toad Suck Ferry Lock, upriver from Little Rock, Arkansas, shut on 6 April because of the high flows. Flows along the Little Rock Corps district reached 271,600cfs on 7 April. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday. Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers The Corps restricted barge transit between Cincinnati, Ohio, and Cairo, Illinois, on the Ohio River to mitigate barge transportation risks, with the Corps closing two locks on the Ohio River on 6 April and potentially four more in the coming days. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) anticipates dock and fleeting operations will be suspended at certain locations along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers as a result of the flooding. NWS forecasters anticipate major flooding levels to persist through the following week. Barge carriers also expect a backlog of up to two weeks in the region. To alleviate flooding at Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers meet, the Corps increased water releases at the Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River and the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River. The Markland Lock, downriver from Cincinnati, Ohio, and the Newburgh lock near Owensboro, Kentucky, closed on 6 April. The Corps expects the full closure to remain until each location reaches its crest of nearly 57ft, which could occur on 8 or 9 April, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Around 50 vessels or more are waiting to transit each lock, according to the Lock Status Report published by the Corps on 7 April. The Corps also shut a chamber at both Cannelton and McAlpine locks. The John T Myers and Smithland locks may close on 7 April as well, the Corps said. The Olmsted Lock, the final lock before the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, will require a 3mph limit for any traffic passing through. The NWS expects roughly 10-15 inches of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys earlier this month, inducing severe flooding across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. A preliminary estimate from AccuWeather stated an estimated loss of $80-90bn in damages from the extreme flooding. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colombia's renewables grow, but gap looms

25/04/07

Colombia's renewables grow, but gap looms

Bogota, 7 April (Argus) — Development of non-conventional renewable (NCRE) generation has picked up in Colombia, but the pace is still not fast enough to cover a projected generation shortage by 2027-2028. Colombia will likely reach 2.55GW in installed NCRE such as solar and wind — excluding large hydropower — by the end of 2025, up from 1.88GW at the end of 2024, Colombian renewable association SER director Alexandra Hernandez told Argus at the Colombia Genera conference held last week in Cartagena. About 670MW from 19 medium and large NCRE plants worth $500mn will likely come online in 2025, Hernandez noted. Of that total, 30MW in two projects came online in January, and the balance of 640MW are under construction, according to Hernandez. The plants will reduce emissions by 1.1mn metric tonnes (t) CO2/yr compared with conventional generation. For 2026, 419MW in NCRE could come online. NCRE will comprise a 12pc share of Colombia's generation capacity in 2025, up from 10pc in 2024. Despite that, Colombia will fail to meet its target of 6GW in NCRE by August 2026, when the administration of President Gustavo Petro ends, former minister of mines and energy Amylkar Acosta said. Colombia will likely will end 2026 with 3GW, Hernandez noted. This comes despite Petro's support for renewable energy and attempts to phase out hydrocarbons use. Much of this development is focused on the dry, windswept department of La Guajira that borders Venezuela and juts into the Caribbean. US firm AES' will start building the first 259MW phase of its 1.1GW Jemeiwaa Ka'I wind complex there later this year, AES's general manager Federico Echavarria said at the Colombia Genera conference. "Our biggest bet is La Guajira," Echavarria said. Last year, Colombia's environmental regulator Anla approved a transmission line connecting 648MW of planned wind capacity in the La Guajira area to the national grid. The 500kV Casa Electrica-Colectora transmission line and substation will connect with Grupo de Energia de Bogota's 500kV Colectora transmission line. Colectora has begun construction and should come online in 2026, a delay from its original 2022 start date. La Guajira has Colombia's greatest renewable power potential, including 21GW of wind power potential, according to state planning agency UPME. But delays to key transmission projects and lengthy community consultations impeded development. Italian power company Enel suspended indefinitely construction of a 205MW wind farm in the Windpeschi region, but state-controlled oil company Ecopetrol is seeking authorization to buy it. Projects advancing in other departments include the 200MW Orquidea solar project in the Caribbean province of Bolivar, which recently earned an environmental permit that clears the way for construction. Running out of time But this new generation capacity will not cover an expected supply shortfall. Colombia is forecast to have a gap of around 2,000MW by 2027-2028 assuming baseline consumption, and 3,000MW-6,000MW if demand rises further, several electricity associations have said. Renewables could help fill this gap, as the construction is fairly quick once permits as security, the renewables group SER said. But 47pc of renewable power companies were unable to complete their planned investments in 2024, with permitting delays among the top reason, the group found in a member survey. Permits from the government's mining and planning unit UPME takes nine months, compared with the two months stipulated by the law. Regional entities take twice as long to issue a permit than the legal limit. The government will push to do more, energy and mines minister Edwin Palma said in Cartagena. "We are convinced and committed to ensuring that expansion projects are carried out," he said. "We will work with the ministry of the interior to expedite licenses." By Diana Delgado Colombia's power generation mix % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

25/04/03

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

25/04/03

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU Parliament approves delay to climate policies

25/04/03

EU Parliament approves delay to climate policies

London, 3 April (Argus) — The European Parliament today voted to postpone the application of the corporate sustainability due diligence directive (CSDDD) and the corporate sustainability reporting directive (CSRD), with final approval now required from the European Council. The European Parliament has backed some of the key proposals from the European Commission's omnibus package submitted in February , which aims to delay the start of due diligence and sustainability reporting requirements by one and two years, respectively. The CSDDD would require large firms to adopt plans to mitigate their climate impact, keeping global temperatures within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels, as per the Paris climate agreement. Under the new proposals, member states have until July 2027 to transpose the rules into national legislation, with the first wave of affected business required to be compliant from 2028. The CSRD came into force at the beginning of 2024, introducing mandatory climate and energy disclosures for some businesses. The use of certificates such as guarantees of origin and renewable power purchase agreements are the only ways recognised in the original text to document use of renewable energy. February's omnibus package sought to delay the start of reporting for companies with more than 250 employees as well as small and medium-sized enterprises by two years to 2028 and 2029, respectively. The next step in the legislative process requires formal approval from the European Council, which already indicated an agreement in an initial position adopted on 26 March. In addition to delaying the application dates, the commission is also seeking to amend the content and scope of both directives. Notably, for sustainability reporting, the changes would see 80pc of companies falling outside the initial scope . By Giulio Bajona Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more