Viewpoint: US LPG exports to LatAm poised to grow

: LPG
24/12/30

US LPG exports to Latin America are expected to rise in 2025 because of ongoing efforts by governments to transition low-income residences away from cooking with firewood.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates in 2023 more than 70mn consumers across Latin America lacked access to clean cooking fuel. Industry groups promote the use of LPG as an alternative to firewood owing it its lower emissions and ease of transport into remote regions unable to be served by electricity or natural gas.

Much of the LPG consumed in Latin America is imported from the US, and US exports to the region stood at around 10.6mn metric tonnes (t) from January to mid-December 2024, already surpassing the 10.48mn t shipped from the US in 2023, according to data from commodity tracking firm Vortexa.

The largest demand center for US LPG in Latin America was Mexico, accounting for 35pc of US shipments to the region, down by 2.2 percentage points from 2023. The Dominican Republic accounted for 12pc of shipments, Ecuador 11pc, and Chile took 9pc. Brazil was among countries seeing the largest increase in its share of US LPG supplies, rising by 2.6 percentage points to 8.7pc this year.

The Brazilian government is working to expand subsidies for LPG, also known as cooking fuel, by another 20mn low-income households next year. If the bill is passed, the measure could increase Brazil's LPG consumption from 7.6mn t to 7.7mn t next year. An estimated 5.4mn households currently benefit from the existing LPG subsidy program. LPG restrictions in Brazil — which limit the use of LPG in saunas, pool heating, commercial boilers, and as autogas in vehicles — may soon change, under a measure under consideration by Brazil's hydrocarbons regulator, ANP. Brazilian LPG association Sindigas expects a 5pc boost to LPG demand in the next five years if restrictions on commercial uses are lifted.

The prospect of additional LPG demand in Brazil has already spurred investments in new infrastructure, including two new import and distribution terminals. Brazilian LPG distributor Copa Energia is part of a consortium of companies investing in a new 71,000t LPG storage facility in Suape on the country's northeast coast. Brazilian fuel distributor Ultrapar has also applied to antitrust regulators to build a new LPG terminal in Pecem port, in northeastern Ceara state, with 62,000t of storage, tentatively planned for operations in 2028.

In Colombia, LPG import are also forecast to grow, largely due to its own diminishing production at Ecopetrol's Cusiana and Cupiagua fields. Colombia's LPG imports are forecast to increase to an average of 22,000 t/month in 2025, based on demand growth of 0.6pc per year, up from the average 6,900 t/month imported in January-June, Gasnova president Alejandro Martinez told Argus earlier this year.

Colombia, like neighboring Brazil, is gearing up to accommodate growing demand. LPG distributor Colgas has started building a terminal at the existing 16,000 t/month Okianus port in Cartagena, scheduled to be ready in late 2025. Canadian oil company Frontera and Chilean LPG supplier Gasco plan to build a $50mn-$60mn LPG terminal at the Caribbean port of Puerto Bahia, which will include 20,400t of storage capacity and will be able to offload two very large gas carriers (VLGCs) a month.

In Guatemala, Mexico's Grupo Tomza subsidiary Tropigas opened a new 1.3mn USG (31,000 bl) LPG storage and distribution facility in Escuintla in November to accommodate growing demand in the region and mitigate logistical disruptions. The Planta Palin facility in Escuintla comprises 20 storage tanks for propane and butane, and will be supplied from seaborne shipments arriving at Guatemala's Santo Tomas and Honduras' Omoa ports.

Latin American LPG importers may also benefit from expanding dock capacity in the US. Both Enterprise and Energy Transfer projects are expected to add a combined 550,000 b/d of LPG export capacity out of Houston and Nederland, Texas, by the end of 2026. Enterprise's new Neches River terminal project near Beaumont, Texas, will add another 360,000 b/d of either ethane or propane export capacity.

The US projects will ease tight dock capacity and the premiums for spot cargoes of propane and butane at the US Gulf coast are expected to wane by the end of 2025, incentivizing buyers in Latin America to purchase more US sourced LPG supplies.

The curve ball

Yet US LPG exports to Latin America could be stymied by growing supplies from Argentina, home to the prolific Vaca Muerta shale formation that holds an estimated 308 trillion cf of shale gas.

Natural gas production in Argentina increased to 138mn m³/d in October, up from 130mn m³/d a year earlier, according to the latest Argentinian government data.

Argentina exported 591,000t of LPG from January to mid-December, with nearly 85pc of it routed to Brazil. But Argentina also exports LPG to Brazil by tanker truck, which could also weigh on seaborne arrivals.

By Giovann Rosales

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/04/24

Dow delays Path2Zero ethylene project in Canada

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Dow is delaying construction in Canada of its Path2Zero project, designed to produce 1.9mn metric tonne (t)/yr of low-carbon ethylene, until "market conditions improve", the company said today. The company decided to delay work at its Path2Zero project site in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, in light of uncertainty around US tariffs and potential retaliatory tariffs by US trading partners, especially their impact on product demand, the company said Thursday on its first-quarter earnings call. Path2Zero, designed to produce ethylene and derivatives with net-zero carbon emissions, was announced in October 2021 and was originally planned for a first-phase start-up in 2027 and a second phase in 2029. The first phase was meant to coincide with an expected upturn in the business cycle. But tariffs have increased uncertainty to the point that Dow said it cannot be sure of a recovery in two years. Chief executive Jim Fitterling described the current market environment as "one of the most protracted down-cycles in decades", compounded by geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns that further weigh on demand. The Path2Zero project delay will save $600mn in 2025, accounting for 60pc of the company's plan to cut capital spending this year by $1bn from the company's original $3.5bn spending plan. The pause comes before a ramp up in construction labor and allows the company to see how tariffs effect global demand and supply chains. "We are at a point right now where we can make this decision to have minimal impact on the project," Fitterling said. "We've done a lot of groundwork, we're finishing our engineering work, and we've got our long lead time items ordered." Despite the delay, Dow remains committed to the project in the long-term. The project will one day capture upside in demand for targeted applications like pressure pipe, wiring cable and food packaging, the company said. When complete, the project is expected to generate approximately $1bn/yr in incremental earnings. Even with the delay, it is still likely to be the world's first integrated ethylene complex to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions. To restart the project, Dow said it would have to start seeing supply and demand balances tighten. The company said it would next revisit restarting the project at the end of 2025. Without a green light by year's end, Dow said it would review a project restart "on a regular basis". The project would triple the site's ethylene and polyethylene (PE) capacity. In total, the site would produce approximately 3.2mn t/yr of low-to-zero emissions PE and other ethylene derivatives. The first phase startup in 2027 was to have brought on 1.3mn t/yr of ethane-derived ethylene and PE, and the second phase in 2029 was to bring on an additional 600,000 t/yr of ethylene and PE. The site will also convert cracker off-gas into hydrogen to be reused as a clean fuel in the production process. The project is designed to capture CO2 emissions for storage by adjacent third-party infrastructure. By Michael Camarda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

25/04/15

IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast

London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Senate seeks coordinated cargo theft probes

25/04/14

US Senate seeks coordinated cargo theft probes

Washington, 14 April (Argus) — US rail and other transportation industries are urging Congress to move forward on a bill that would create a division within the Department of Homeland Security to coordinate investigations of organized cargo theft. The bipartisan Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 was introduced on 10 April by Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada). The bill, similar to a 2023 effort, calls for creation of an organized retail and supply chain crime coordination center to unite experts from federal, state and local law enforcement agencies, as well as retail industry representatives. The Class I railroads also operate their own police forces with powers equivalent to public law enforcement. Coordinating investigations in a timely manner is difficult because of the proliferation of different agencies. Railroad police officials are limited to carriers' facilities, while local police forces are unable to quickly investigate railroad thefts because they need specific permission to enter railroad property. "Organized criminal operations continue to evolve and escalate their targeted attacks against our nation's supply chain and retailers," Association of American Railroads chief executive Ian Jefferies said. The nation's largest railroads experienced a 40pc spike in cargo theft last year, costing carriers more than $100mn, AAR said. Rail thefts tend to be split between flash mob robberies and organized efforts by criminal networks, according to Danny Ramon, director of intelligence and response at logistics platform Overhaul. Flash mobs often target containers in urban areas, seeking valuable products such as apparel and footwear that they can quickly sell. These thefts often occur in regions near ports where containers are loaded onto trains, including Los Angeles, Chicago and Atlanta. But thefts in rural areas are becoming more prolific, Ramon said. They have become popular locations because it can take law enforcement an hour or longer to reach trains as opposed to minutes for urban rail cargo thefts. Rural areas also make it easier for groups to stage larger thefts. The organized groups tend to track trains from origin and monitor them along the way, breaking in during breaks in rural areas. They come prepared with equipment and cargo vans to enable them to quickly empty products from trains. Arizona has become a popular location for thefts because of its vast portions of rural area. In addition, many trains are heading east with containers of goods recently loaded from west coast ports. Thefts by criminal organizations have increased in part because of the ease in selling to individuals. The proliferation of on line websites have allowed these organizations to bypass traditional third-party middlemen and sell directly to consumers, Ramon said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

25/04/02

Q&A: LGE still pushing EU for RLG concessions

London, 2 April (Argus) — European LPG association Liquid Gas Europe (LGE) continues to push to secure EU and member state support for renewable liquid gases (RLG) such as bioLPG and renewable DME (rDME) while protecting customers of LPG and autogas from policies intended to transition away from fossil fuels. Argus' Dafydd ab Iago and Matt Scotland spoke to LGE general manager Ewa Abramiuk-Lete: What is the EU's latest position on CO2-neutral fuels in road transport? The European Commission's 2023 regulation proposes a framework for registering vehicles after 2035 that operate solely on CO2-neutral fuels in accordance with EU law and climate neutrality objectives. Since then, the commission has been tasked with developing a definition of what CO2-neutral fuels are, but no official information has been released yet. Meanwhile, as part of the broader fuels industry, we've collaborated in a technical group to formulate a definition that encompasses all renewable fuels in line with the EU's renewable energy directive [RED III]. The group's report frequently makes reference to renewable LPG and DME. But will the commission consider anything other than e-fuels? Certain EU commissioners and commission president Ursula von der Leyen have emphasised the need for technological neutrality when revising CO2 standards for cars. The devil is in the details. At this point, there is talk, but we've yet to see any concrete proposals or indications from the commission. We are closely monitoring the current developments in the commission, primarily to determine whether the concept of technological neutrality is being practically implemented and if there is potential for more than just e-fuels and hydrogen. But the push for this concept should originate from member states. Failing to broaden the scope would be a missed opportunity to support a broader range of cost-effective, immediately deployable renewable solutions like RLGs and rDME. When could we find out what fuels are included? A decision may come later this year. Any initiative to reopen or amend EU legislation must come from the commission. Recent intense discussions in the European Parliament about the state of the automotive sector, as well as growing pressure from member states, could be enough to persuade the commission to act. What has been the reaction to the EU's clean industrial deal and state aid rules? We are still reviewing the new state aid proposals. At first glance, RLGs seem to be included. The commission indicates that all fuels compliant with [RED III] — such as bioLPG, biomethane and rDME — are eligible for support. Fossil fuels are generally excluded, with limited exceptions for natural gas under strict conditions. The justification for this is that natural gas is deemed cleaner than more polluting alternatives — an argument that equally applies to LPG. In which direction is the EU discussion on energy taxation heading? The European Council is still finalising the energy taxation directive. The matter lies with EU member states, which must vote unanimously on energy taxation. Progress is being made slowly. The current Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU will need to determine the next steps on critical issues before a consensus can be reached. For LPG, what is at stake is whether RLGs are fairly treated under the new tax framework — and whether the directive allows for differentiation between renewable and conventional fuels, and between business and non-business uses. How will the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD) affect LPG? A lot is quite technical, but also vital for the sector. One key issue is the inconsistent implementation of the EPBD across EU member states. Guidance documents provide definitions of what constitutes a fossil fuel boiler, which is essential as several member states are preparing to phase out such boilers between 2035 and 2040. A significant question [is whether there will be] recognition of renewable-ready or renewable-compatible boilers, particularly those using bioLPG or rDME. We are analysing how member states are interpreting and implementing these provisions. In Italy, there is strong support for the continued use of bioLPG in heating, but this level of recognition varies significantly between member states. What is the latest on the EU's proposed restrictions on PFAS ? The European Chemicals Agency is conducting a socio-economic assessment as part of the EU's proposed restriction on PFAS under Reach, covering many industrial uses. In the LPG sector, PFAS — particularly fluoropolymers such as PTFE — play a critical role in cylinders, tanks and valves. These materials are essential for preventing leaks in systems that store and transport flammable gases. Some alternatives are being tested — including PFAS-free sealing techniques used by certain companies in Spain — but they are not yet widely adopted or validated across the EU. Promising developments are being made but require further testing to meet safety standards. Your recent RLG Outlook models European RLG output reaching 27.4mn t/yr by 2050 under the policy conditions. Is that not too optimistic given limited progress in the past two years and the dissolution of rDME joint venture Dimeta? While the dissolution of Dimeta was a setback, it does not change the long-term outlook for rDME. Our 2050 modelling shows that Europe could produce up to 27.4mn t/yr of renewable LPG equivalent, of which up to 40pc could come from rDME. The industry continues to see strong potential in rDME, and essential work is progressing on technical standardisation, and safety and blending rules. Our analysis also indicates that sustainable feedstocks are sufficient to fulfil this production potential. Out of 22 production pathways, we examined nine in detail based on a multi-criteria analysis. Only two are fully commercialised at present. This is why we are advocating for co-ordinated policy action — to accelerate commercialisation and mitigate investment risks. Will rDME be a core focus at LGE's Congress in Katowice over 20-22 May? RDME will be one of many key topics at the congress. The event will take place in Poland, drawing strong participation from central and eastern European markets, as well as from further afield, with delegates expected from the US, South America, Africa, Australia and Asia. [LGE] plans to present the RLG Outlook and explore opportunities for scaling up RLG production. In addition, sessions will focus on the role of LPG in agriculture, transport and heating — all critical sectors for the energy transition. Central Europe and Poland will be a core point of discussion, given its significant autogas market and ongoing energy security challenges. We will also address the impact of Russian sanctions on the Polish LPG market, with high-level representatives from the Polish presidency and industry ministry in attendance. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

25/04/01

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more