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Extensive TMX Coverage

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Overview

Discover the global implications of Western Canada’s new Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline (TMX) and its potential impact on your business. The pipeline provides a critical route for Canadian crude oil to reach the Pacific, reshaping crude flows, shipping logistics, and refinery operations worldwide. 

Our extensive coverage provides deep insights into TMX crude shipping routes, key stakeholders, logistical challenges, and pricing dynamics. We highlight the vital role of logistics in identifying the most cost-effective solutions for buyers. 

We have been a trusted source for crude pricing and market analysis from the US Gulf Coast to China’s Shandong province and across the globe. Our methodologies are known for their transparency and relevance, supported by the expertise of our market coverage teams. Since 2010, we have covered domestic Canadian crude markets from our Calgary office. The Argus WCS Houston price is a leading benchmark for heavy crude in the Americas, with financial futures contracts settling on it providing essential risk management tools for Canadian crude globally.   

Whether you want a quick overview or an in-depth analysis of the factors shaping the TMX crude market, Argus gives you extensive and authoritative coverage.
 

How will these prices be used?

 The Argus fob Vancouver assessments for Cold Lake and High TAN provide transparency into an emerging market that aims to supply Pacific buyers of those grades in a more efficient way. These prices will be used by potential buyers to determine the competitiveness of Canadian exports our of Vancouver against those coming out of the US Gulf coast. Additionally, they will allow potential buyers to also determine where Canadian supplies stack up when compared to alternative supplies from other countries.

Once the market matures, there is also a possibility that these new assessments will be used in contracts to exchange volumes coming out of the pipeline so that participants can purchase them at the dock and either resell on the spot market or take into their own systems.

 

Latest TMX news

Browse the latest TMX news and analysis, including freight news

News
24/09/06

Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX

Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX

Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

A potential Canadian railed crude revival?

24/08/23
News
24/08/23

A potential Canadian railed crude revival?

Houston, 23 August (Argus) — Stagnant railed crude shipments from Canada could see a revival in 2026-2027 as growing oil sands output once again outstrips available pipeline capacity, according to a recent study. New upstream projects are expected to boost Canadian crude output to about 6mn b/d by 2033, up from about 5mn b/d in 2023, according to Enkon Energy Advisors, a Houston-based consultancy. Potential available crude exports could increase to 5mn b/d by 2027, Enkon said, surpassing the capacity of existing long-haul export lines including Enbridge's giant 3.1mn b/d Mainline system and the recently expanded 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) to Canada's west coast. Demand for spot railed crude volumes will likely remain low until 2026-2027 amid plentiful pipeline capacity, which is the most efficient way to move heavy crude over long distances. But with no new pipeline capacity additions on the horizon after TMX, "spot rail volumes are expected to become significant post-2027," Enkon said. Canadian crude-by-rail exports have averaged about 94,000 b/d this year through June, down from 119,000 b/d in 2023 and 143,000 b/d in 2022, according to Canada Energy Regulator (CER) data. Flows are well south of the all-time high yearly average 280,000 b/d set in 2019, and the 412,000 b/d monthly record set in February 2020. Railed crude exports are linked to differentials between crude prices at the rail and pipeline hub in Hardisty, Alberta, and their corresponding prices in Houston, Texas. Those differentials widened to near $25/bl in late 2018 amid a supply glut and persistent pipeline congestion, spurring Alberta's government to enact mandatory output cuts and negotiate billions of dollars worth of railed crude contracts that were subsequently dropped. That pricing spread has recently held at about $8/bl, less than half of the $15-20/bl spread that typically makes crude-by-rail movements viable for shippers without rail commitments. However, Enkon said that as Canadian pipeline capacity refills, that differential is expected to return to levels seen in 2018. "This situation underscores the urgency for producers transporting crude via rail to find strategies that mitigate negative impacts on their netbacks," Enkon said. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

TMX spurs oil sands to find ways to boost output

24/08/16
News
24/08/16

TMX spurs oil sands to find ways to boost output

Access to Asia-Pacific markets has driven oils sands production higher, but more pipeline capacity will be needed for further growth, writes Brett Holmes Calgary, 16 August (Argus) — Canada's oil sands are growing again as producers increase output, incentivised by new market opportunities created by the start-up in May of the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline to the country's Pacific coast. Output from the big four producers in Alberta's oil sands — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor and Imperial Oil — rose by 8pc in the second quarter compared with a year earlier to a combined 3.26mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). Key to this improvement was an aggressive approach to maintenance aimed at minimising operational downtime and maximising productivity gains. Suncor, CNRL and Imperial each trimmed the number of days that major assets were off line during the quarter. Imperial completed the now annual turnaround at its Kearl mine in just 19 days, down from 35 days and a previous annual programme of two 35-day stoppages, while Suncor cut downtime at its Base Plant and Syncrude upgraders by a combined 12 days, partly through reducing the scope of work and partly through innovations such as using drones to carry out inspections that would have previously needed scaffolding. Operators will see the biggest productivity benefits "if we can just simply extend the intervals on entire turnarounds", Suncor chief executive Rich Kruger says. CNRL is taking that approach at its Horizon upgrader, shifting turnarounds from annually to once every two years, in a move it believes will add 14,000 b/d to its synthetic oil output. Imperial sees its maintenance rescheduling at Kearl boosting the mine's output by 20,000 b/d to 300,000 b/d. Oil sands producers now have an extra incentive to boost output, given the enhanced access to lucrative Asia-Pacific markets provided by TMX, which is having some impact on prices and differentials, executives say. Heavy sour Western Canadian Select in Alberta averaged about $67/bl in the second quarter, up from about $59/bl in the same period a year earlier. The improved market access has boosted profits and sentiment for Canadian producers, and further infrastructure expansion may be coming. Canadian midstream firm Enbridge is considering a further expansion of its 3.1mn b/d Mainline system running from Edmonton to the US midcontinent, which it could optimise to accommodate another 150,000 b/d of throughput by the end of 2027. Appetite for construction There is likely to be demand for this additional capacity. The Alberta Energy Regulator says it expects oil sands production to increase by 500,000 b/d over the next 10 years from 3.41mn b/d last year. And further additions may emerge if progress can be made on the issue of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to deal with associated emissions. CNRL is looking at a massive 195,000 b/d expansion of its 250,000 b/d Horizon project, but has said that an attractive fiscal and regulatory climate is "absolutely key" before it commits to any expansion of that size. That specifically means government support for the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of CNRL and five other oil sands producers which is proposing a C$16.5bn ($12bn) CCS project that would initially connect 14 oil sands facilities, with the aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 10mn-22mn t/yr by 2030. A green light for Pathways and other CCS schemes would be likely to act as a trigger for further investment in Alberta's oil sands. Shell and Strathcona have already announced that they are advancing separate CCS projects after they secured new investment tax credits, but the industry's focus will be heavily on a final investment decision for Pathways, which the Alberta government says is expected next year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US west coast top destination for TMX in July

24/08/02
News
24/08/02

US west coast top destination for TMX in July

Houston, 2 August (Argus) — The US west coast overtook Asia-Pacific as the leading destination for crude from the newly minted 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in July. Refiners along the US west coast have more than doubled their TMX crude intake, importing almost 5mn bl in July compared to 2.1mn bl in June, according to data analytics firm Kpler. Asia-Pacific refiners imported 25,500 bl fewer than the US west coast in July, at 4.9mn bl after importing 5.25mn bl in June. Asian refiners have imported about 13mn bl of TMX crude since the expanded pipeline started up in May, while US west coast buyers purchased around 8mn bl. The decline in TMX crude heading to Asia is in part due to fewer ship-to-ship (STS) transfers occurring at the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL). STS operations at PAL fell by nine in July, compared to 12 in June. Demurrage fees are possibly deterring charterers from building very large crude carrier (VLCC) -sized cargoes of TMX crude to Asia-Pacific, according to market participants. Waning Chinese demand is also opening up TMX crude to US west coast buyers. Weak Chinese domestic products demand and higher costs of crude have lowered Chinese crude runs since the first quarter, while imports have curtailed. June crude imports of 11.3mn b/d were flat from May and 210,000 b/d lower than in January-June 2023. The country also began drawing from crude stocks in July, lowering stocks by 3mn bl according to analytics firm Vortexa. State-owned Sinochem also skipped September purchases of Access Western Blend (AWB) from TMX after shutting down its 100,000 b/d Zhenghe and 120,000 b/d Changyi refineries in June. The company previously bought a 550,000 bl cargo of AWB for June and August delivery. US west coast refiners are opting for cheaper TMX crude over Latin American grades. Imports of rival Ecuadorian crude Napo have fallen by 37pc to 2.7mn bl since the TMX start-up in May, according to Kpler. Availability of Napo diminished after Ecuador's 450,000 b/d OCP pipeline halted operations for 16 days as erosion along the bank of the Quijos River threatened to rupture the line. The pipeline closure dropped the country's crude production 23pc to 375,000 b/d as of 2 July, according to hydrocarbons regulatory agency Arch. Petroecuador's production fell the most because of the stoppage, leading to a force majeure declaration on exports of Napo crude on 20 June. By Rachel McGuire and Narciso Cano Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canada’s TMX crude grows in popularity in China

24/07/29
News
24/07/29

Canada’s TMX crude grows in popularity in China

London, 29 July (Argus) — Canada has become China's cheapest source of crude that is not under sanctions since the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline opened in May, potentially cementing the country's role as a supply source at a time when Chinese refiners' margins are feeling the pressure. China has boosted imports of Canadian heavy crude since May — 170,000 b/d of TMX-shipped crude left the west coast port of Vancouver in June for China, data from oil analytics platform Vortexa show. TMX has allowed more output from Alberta's oil sands region to reach Vancouver — 300,000 b/d was exported from the port in June, TMX's first full month of operation. This was well up on the 34,000 b/d exported in April and 36,000 b/d in June 2023, and, strikingly, over double the 145,000 b/d of Canadian crude exported from the US Gulf coast last month. Chinese importers — state-controlled Sinopec, PetroChina and Sinochem, and private-sector Rongsheng — are becoming more comfortable with TMX exports. Heavy sour grade Cold Lake made up 90pc of the firms' purchases in June, while Access Western Blend (AWB) — also heavy sour but with a higher total acid number (TAN) — represents the fastest-growing source of supply from Vancouver. This, and Californian buyers' preference for lower-TAN crude, is keeping spot differentials for TMX-shipped AWB under pressure and boosting its appeal in China. Acidic grades corrode crude units at high temperatures, forcing sellers to offer them at discounts. Chinese firms secured $6/bl discounts to Ice December Brent for AWB delivered to China in October, while Cold Lake was offered $0.50-1.00/bl higher and no cargoes have been bought by China for October. AWB is far cheaper than Colombian Castilla and costs less than Cold Lake delivered to China from the US Gulf coast (see graph). Castilla is heavier than AWB, at 22.5°API, but far less sour. Slow demand is hitting Chinese refiners' profits and spurring them to look for cheaper feedstock. AWB is around $6/bl pricier than Venezuelan heavy Merey but only Shandong independent refiners typically buy Merey. State-run firms expect TMX-shipped crude to partially displace their imports of Iraqi heavy sour Basrah Heavy and Latin American grades Napo, Oriente, Castilla and Vasconia. Sinopec has become a consistent buyer of AWB for its 470,000 b/d Maoming and 540,000 b/d Zhenhai refineries. PetroChina is buying AWB for its 400,000 b/d Jieyang plant. Rongsheng bought 2mn bl of September-delivery AWB and the same again for October delivery to its 800,000 b/d ZPC refinery. But Sinochem has shut at least two of its Shandong facilities and paused all crude purchasing for its refineries in the province. "We take cheap AWB crude from the TMX pipeline to enhance our profits, despite its lower gasoline and diesel yields," a Chinese buyer says. Blending AWB with lighter crudes produces higher amounts of naphtha and fuel oil but lower amounts of middle distillates. Pay PAL Chinese buyers are still experimenting on how best to import Canadian crude. Vancouver port restrictions mean that shippers can load vessels no larger than an Aframax, and then with only 500,000-550,000 bl. Sinopec bought four Aframaxes in June before transferring their cargoes to a 2mn bl very large crude carrier (VLCC) in the Pacific Area Lightering (PAL) zone off California. The difficulty of aligning the arrival of the Aframaxes and a VLCC off California raises significant demurrage risks. And ship-to-ship transfers are only allowed during daylight hours, which shrink in the winter. The alternative is to ship crude to China on an Aframax, a 17-day voyage. But this has been $0.70/bl cheaper on average than the cost of putting together a VLCC for China delivery since early June. Crude marker time structure China's Canadian crude imports China's heavy sour crude imports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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