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Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline (TMX)

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OverviewLatest newsSpotlight contentRelated productsRelated content
OverviewLatest newsSpotlight contentRelated productsRelated content

Overview

Discover the global implications of Western Canada’s new Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline (TMX) and its potential impact on your business. The pipeline provides a critical route for Canadian crude oil to reach the Pacific, reshaping crude flows, shipping logistics, and refinery operations worldwide. 

Our extensive coverage provides deep insights into TMX crude shipping routes, key stakeholders, logistical challenges, and pricing dynamics. We highlight the vital role of logistics in identifying the most cost-effective solutions for buyers. 

We have been a trusted source for crude pricing and market analysis from the US Gulf Coast to China’s Shandong province and across the globe. Our methodologies are known for their transparency and relevance, supported by the expertise of our market coverage teams. Since 2010, we have covered domestic Canadian crude markets from our Calgary office. The Argus WCS Houston price is a leading benchmark for heavy crude in the Americas, with financial futures contracts settling on it providing essential risk management tools for Canadian crude globally.   

Whether you want a quick overview or an in-depth analysis of the factors shaping the TMX crude market, Argus gives you extensive and authoritative coverage.
 

How will these prices be used?

 The Argus fob Vancouver assessments for Cold Lake and High TAN provide transparency into an emerging market that aims to supply Pacific buyers of those grades in a more efficient way. These prices will be used by potential buyers to determine the competitiveness of Canadian exports our of Vancouver against those coming out of the US Gulf coast. Additionally, they will allow potential buyers to also determine where Canadian supplies stack up when compared to alternative supplies from other countries.

Once the market matures, there is also a possibility that these new assessments will be used in contracts to exchange volumes coming out of the pipeline so that participants can purchase them at the dock and either resell on the spot market or take into their own systems.

 

Latest TMX news

Browse the latest TMX news and analysis, including freight news

News
26/11/24

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

Trump tariffs will divert TMX crude from USWC

Houston, 26 November (Argus) — President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada could divert most of the crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline away from US west coast refiners to Asia-Pacific. Flows from Canada's newest pipeline might shift after Trump, via social media late on Monday, announced plans to slap a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. TMX, which expanded capacity on the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d and gave Asia-Pacific buyers access to heavy sour crude produced in Alberta's oil sands, would have to direct all its flows to Asia if US west coast demand weakens. Tariffs on crude imports from Canada would force US west coast refiners to turn elsewhere. Refiners in the region have increased purchases of Canadian grades since the May commencement of the pipeline. Cheaper prices and closer proximity to Vancouver, where TMX crude loads, allowed the heavy sour crudes to find favor along the US west coast. But the proposed tariffs would strengthen TMX prices, no longer making it the cheapest heavy sour option. About 313,000 b/d of mostly heavy sour Canadian crude has loaded at Vancouver's Westridge terminal in the six months since the pipeline made its debut, according to analytics firm Vortexa. US west coast refiners received around 145,000 b/d since the pipeline came on line in May, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier. Most TMX crude destined for the US west coast has gone to California refiners, with Marathon, Chevron and Phillips 66 emerging as consistent buyers. Around 34mn bl of TMX crude has loaded for Asia-Pacific, or about 161,000 b/d. China, the largest buyer in Asia-Pacific, has purchased about 83pc of those barrels, Vortexa data shows. Also, Latin American barrels could see a resurgence after being displaced by TMX in the region. Latin American medium and heavy sours, like Napo and Oriente, could see a resurgence in demand as well, after TMX displaced those grades. In the first six months after TMX, imports of Napo and Oriente fell by 14pc. Brazilian and Guyanese crudes could also see higher demand in the region, according to market participants. But Mexican crude flows could also be limited by Trump's tariffs. Imports from Mexico have been declining since TMX's May commencement, dropping 65pc in the pipeline's first six months of service. But refiners still import the grades, taking roughly 3.5mn bl, or 16,7000 b/d since the pipeline began operating. By Rachel McGuire Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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News

US west coast refiners boost Canadian TMX intake

18/11/24
News
18/11/24

US west coast refiners boost Canadian TMX intake

Houston, 18 November (Argus) — US west coast refiners have increased heavy Canadian crude purchases by almost 75pc since the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline started operations in May, but imminent California refinery closures threaten demand. The 590,000 b/d TMX project nearly tripled the capacity of Trans Mountain's pipeline system to 890,000 b/d when it opened on 1 May. The line runs from Alberta's oil sands to Vancouver on Canada's west coast, giving direct access to lucrative Asian markets, where buyers are eager for heavy sour crude. About 305,000 b/d of mostly heavy sour Canadian crude has loaded at the Westridge terminal in Vancouver in the six months since the pipeline made its debut, according to analytics firm Vortexa, hitting a record of nearly 415,000 b/d in October (see graph). US west coast refiners received just over 150,000 b/d during this period, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier, and deliveries rose to a high of nearly 205,000 b/d last month (see graph). Most TMX crude destined for the US west coast has gone to Californian refiners, with Marathon, Chevron and Phillips 66 emerging as consistent buyers. Proximity to Vancouver and cheaper prices are attracting west coast buyers to TMX grades. The voyage time to California takes four days, compared with 10-14 days for Ecuadorean grades and over a month for Saudi crude. The new flows have undermined west coast interest in Mideast Gulf and Latin American supply. West coast imports from the Mideast Gulf fell by 25pc on the year to just under 260,000 b/d in the first six months of TMX operations, Vortexa data show. Crude arrivals from Saudi Arabia have been hardest hit, falling to only 40,000 b/d over the period, a third of the 2023 amount. Refiners are also turning away from Latin American grades. Mexican crude imports have dropped by 65pc since TMX started up, while imports of Ecuadorean heavy sour Napo and Oriente have fallen by 14pc. Napo differentials have weakened as a result, dropping to a $9.70/bl discount to Nymex WTI for October from a $6.70/bl discount for May. Oriente fell by $1.20/bl to a $5.70/bl discount to WTI between May and October. Alaskan ANS differentials have also come under pressure. December-delivery ANS averaged a $1.09/bl premium to Ice calendar-month average Brent, down from $4.30/bl a year earlier (see graph). But that drop has bolstered west coast demand for Alaskan crude, and spot ANS sales to the region rose by 8pc on the year to 1.6mn bl in May-December, Argus data show. Lower-priced ANS is also attracting interest from further afield — almost 1.2mn bl loaded for delivery to China in September, the highest such flows since April 2021, according to Vortexa. Rising tide Canadian crude remains plentifully supplied to refiners in the US midcontinent, despite earlier concerns that the TMX line would constrain availabilities. Rising Canadian oil sands output has meant that Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline system from west Canada to the US midcontinent has been operating at full capacity, and 2.9mn b/d flowed to the region in July, the highest for the month since 1993, US EIA data show. August imports fell to 2.6mn b/d after wildfires limited production in Canada's key upstream province Alberta. West coast demand for TMX crude could be undermined over the longer term by refinery closures. Phillips 66 aims to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in late 2025. US west coast operators say more plants will close after then, citing a "hostile regulatory environment" in California and increased costs as the state government tightens the regulations governing refineries and production. By Rachel McGuire Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canadian TMX crude finds favour in China

18/11/24
News
18/11/24

Canadian TMX crude finds favour in China

London, 18 November (Argus) — Canadian heavy crude exported from the country's west coast has become a steady supply source for Chinese refiners in the six months since the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in May, even as refiners elsewhere in Asia-Pacific have been more cautious about embracing the new flows. China-bound exports of Canadian heavy sour crude delivered along the TMX pipeline to Vancouver climbed to a fresh high of around 240,000 b/d in October, analytics platform Vortexa data show (see graph). This left average TMX loadings to China at around 150,000 b/d in June-October. The 590,000 b/d TMX project started loading cargoes in May. While Chinese refiners have been quick to embrace the convenience of the shortened time to import crude from Canada's Pacific coast, this has not been the case for other Asian refiners. China looked set to absorb all the October TMX exports to Asia-Pacific. Exports to other Asian destinations — South Korea, India, Japan and Brunei — averaged just 37,000 b/d in June-October. Weak refining margins may have encouraged Chinese buyers to turn to TMX-shipped crude, which has become their cheapest supply source not under sanctions. Private-sector Rongsheng has become a key buyer to meet its spot requirements of 4mn-6mn bl/month for the 800,000 b/d ZPC refinery in Zhejiang. The firm now buys between three and seven cargoes a month, or 53,000-125,000 b/d, of TMX crude, mainly Access Western Blend (AWB), a heavy sour grade with a higher total acid number (TAN) than Cold Lake, the other heavy sour TMX export. China's largest state-owned refiner Sinopec has also been a consistent buyer of AWB for its 470,000 b/d Maoming and 540,000 b/d Zhenhai refineries, and the increased Chinese buying of Canadian crude has displaced some of the country's usual intake from the Mideast Gulf . Rongsheng in the past bought large amounts of UAE grades including medium sour Upper Zakum through monthly spot tenders. Upper Zakum exports to China fell to around 380,000 b/d in June-October from just over 430,000 b/d in January-May and 615,000 b/d in 2023. The steep drop from last year might also be down to lower availabilities after Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc started to divert more Upper Zakum to its domestic Ruwais refinery late last year as part of its crude flexibility project. But Iraqi Basrah Heavy flows to China have risen this year from 2023, defying early expectations that the heavy sour grade would be squeezed out by TMX crude. Traders in Asia-Pacific say medium sour grades have been most affected, including US Mars, with Asian imports this year falling to the lowest since the grade started moving to the region in 2017. Stuttering start Demand for TMX crude has not picked up as quickly elsewhere in Asia. Early interest surfaced from India, with private-sector Reliance Industries receiving a 2mn bl cargo of AWB in July, but no crude shipments have left Vancouver for India since then. Indian refiners may be wary of AWB's high TAN and the logistical challenges facing shipments. The July cargo made its way to India after three ship-to-ship transfers and the voyage took nearly two months. Reliance may instead prefer even cheaper Venezuelan crude. Flows to South Korea appear to have dried up after just under 3mn bl of Cold Lake loaded in July-August for the country, with Vortexa data showing no departures for South Korea since. A cargo of Cold Lake was exported in August to Japan, and another in September to Brunei. Interest from Asian refiners other than China and India is likely to be focused on Cold Lake rather than the more acidic AWB, which would be harder to process at their plants. By Fabian Ng TMX Vancouver exports to Asia-Pacific Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate

05/11/24
News
05/11/24

Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate

Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Record high crude exports in Vancouver have lifted short-haul Aframax rates in the region, pressuring the Vancouver-US west coast rate to its highest level since before the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) came online in May. The rate to ship 80,000t of crude, or about 550,000 bl of Cold Lake, from Vancouver to the US west coast climbed to Worldscale (WS) 182.5, equivalent to $2.39/bl, on 29 October, the highest since 21 March. It sustained that level through 4 November before inching lower to WS180 on 5 November, according to Argus data. The seven-month high came after a record 24 Aframaxes loaded at Vancouver's Westridge Marine Terminal in October , according to shipowner Teekay Tankers and ship-tracking data from Kpler. The previous record was 21 in July. October's loadings coincided with a record 413,000 b/d of crude exported from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system the same month. Of the 24 Aframaxes, nine went directly to Asia-Pacific ports while five went to the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) to discharge onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The remainder traveled to ports on the US west coast. A recent shift in charterers' preferences to ship crude directly from Vancouver to destinations in Asia-Pacific , rather than via PAL, has contributed to the upward pressure in rates to the US west coast since September. Direct transpacific shipments remove vessels from the west coast North America market for about 45 days. October's high number of Aframax loadings has had less of an impact on the rate for Vancouver-China shipments, which tend to load later in the loading window and open the number of potential vessels to ships in the east Asia market. Aframaxes hired for Vancouver-US west coast runs often are provisionally booked about five to 10 days in advance of loading, compared with 15-20 days in advance for Vancouver-China shipments. The Vancouver-China Aframax rate was $2.8mn lumpsum, or $5.13/bl for Cold Lake, on 5 November, according to Argus data. That rate had been rangebound between $2.8mn and $2.9mn between 26 September and 5 November. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows

05/11/24
News
05/11/24

Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows

Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Phillips 66's plans for a late 2025 shutdown of its 139,000 b/d refinery in Los Angeles, California, will likely lead to more trans-Pacific refined products tanker shipments into the US west coast while having a more muted effect on crude tankers. Phillips 66 said it would likely shut the refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing the high regulatory costs of operating in California. While it is unclear what will become of the facility, Phillips 66 said it still plans to supply the region with road fuels in the future. The closure will reduce California's refining capacity by 8.6pc to about 1.48mn b/d and removes about 14pc of refining capacity in the Los Angeles area. Tankers hauled about 160,000 b/d of refined products to California in January-October, with about 95,000 b/d going to Los Angeles, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa. About 27pc of the deliveries to Los Angeles came from refiners on the US Gulf coast and elsewhere on the US west coast on Jones Act-compliant vessels, which must be US-built, US-flagged and US-crewed. But the relatively small Jones Act fleet is already fully utilized, with no additional ships on order, shipbroker Poten said. This means replacement supplies of refined products will need to come from farther afield, likely Asia-Pacific. South Korea is Los Angeles' biggest source of waterborne refined products so far this year, shipping about 33,000 b/d in January-October, Vortexa data show, followed by other US sources (25,000 b/d), China (9,000 b/d), India (9,000 b/d) and Canada (8,500 b/d). Taiwan, Singapore and Japan also have supplied marginal cargoes to Los Angeles this year. An increase of California-bound shipments from these countries would create additional demand for voyages lasting a range of 19-35 days, boosting ton-mile demand and tanker employment in the Pacific basin. Medium range (MR) and long range 1 (LR1) refined product tankers would benefit the most from these increased trade flows, with MRs accounting for 67pc of the current market share and LR1s 33pc, according to Vortexa data. Tanker demand for exports from the US west coast is unlikely to be affected. Phillips 66 Los Angeles exported just 2,000-4,000 b/d of products in January-October, data from Kpler and Vortexa show. Limited impact on crude tankers Because Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery was designed to process domestic California crude, the impact on the regional crude tanker market likely will be much more limited — and offset by increased tanker demand on Canada's Pacific coast. With available domestic — albeit declining — California crude production, the 139,000 b/d refinery imported 64,000 b/d of crude in January-August 2024, mostly from short-haul sources in the Americas, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show. The trade was dominated by 1mn bl Suezmaxes and 500,000-700,000 bl Aframaxes. The refinery imported 15.52mn bl of crude in January-August 2024, according to the EIA. Canada was the largest international supplier (4.84mn bl) in that span, boosted by the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline start-up in May, followed by Guyana (3.48mn bl) via the Trans-Panama Pipeline, Mexico (2.98mn bl), Brazil (2.92mn bl) and Ecuador (1.3mn bl). Because of the refinery's use of domestic crude supplies, the complex's imports are equivalent to just two Suezmax shipments or three Aframax shipments per month. For the regional tanker market, that is more than offset by the burgeoning TMX flows on Canada's Pacific coast, which in October loaded a record 24 Aframaxes , destined to refineries in China and the US west coast. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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