Tokyo on track to secure enough winter power supplies

Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
17/10/23

Japan's capital Tokyo is forecast to secure sufficient power supplies to meet peak demand during the upcoming winter season, although its electricity reserve level fell from previous estimates in September.

The Tokyo area will have a surplus of 4pc in January and 4.4pc in February, even if the coldest weather recorded in the past decade hits the region, according to the latest outlook by nationwide transmission operator Occto. The reserve level for January and February was revised down from the respective 5.2pc and 5.7pc predicted on 22 September. But the latest figures remain above the minimum 3pc required for any emergencies, such as unexpected power plant closures and a weather-driven spike in demand.

Japanese power producer and wholesaler Soma Kyodo Power was forced to shut down the 1GW No.2 unit at its Shinchi coal-fired plant on 22 September because of a technical problem. It is still unclear when the unit will be brought back on line. The plant is located in northeastern Japan's Fukushima prefecture but sends some of its produced electricity to Tokyo.

But reserve levels in Tokyo do not include the 650MW Yokosuka No.2 coal-fired unit, as the unit is still conducting trial runs. The unit began test generation in May, with commercial operations scheduled to start in February 2024.

There are two other areas in east Japan, including Tohoku and Hokkaido, that are also expected to have similar reserve levels as Tokyo's 4pc for January and 4.4pc for February. But such ratios in western Japan are predicted to exceed an ideal reserve level of 8pc during the period because of ample nuclear availability.

Occto predicts that Japan will have 124.31GW of thermal generation capacity available for January, which is well above the actual thermal output of 98.545GW in January 2022, according to data by trade and industry ministry Meti. Japan's power sector used 10.9mn t of coal, 4.6mn t of LNG and 168,979 b/d of oil in January 2022.

The Occto also forecasts the country will have 8.7GW of nuclear, 9.51GW of general hydroelectric, 26.97GW of pumped-storage hydroelectric, 2.75GW of solar, 2.08GW of wind and 0.32GW of geothermal capacity for January.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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