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Cop: Cop 28 Fossil fuel deal strong even if imperfect

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 13/12/23

Countries today hailed the progress made at the UN Cop 28 climate summit, in an agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, but pointed to potential loopholes and more focus needed on financial support for developing countries.

Almost 200 countries agreed earlier today on "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems".

US climate envoy John Kerry said that "this is a moment when multilateralism has come together". Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must agree unanimously on any final outcome. "This document sends very strong messages to the world," Kerry added, calling the language on fossil fuels "clear".

"This text is... not perfect, but it lays the foundation…", Bangladeshi climate envoy Saber Hossain Chowdhury said today. "Of course we would have liked more", he added.

It is the first time that the idea of curbing all fossil fuels has appeared in a final outcome from a Cop. A reference to a "phase down" of coal — the most polluting fossil fuel — was included two years ago, at Cop 26.

"Whilst we didn't turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end", UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said today. A broad coalition of countries, including the EU, the Umbrella Group — a UN voting bloc including the UK and US — and small island developing states had called for a phase out of all fossil fuels.

Samoa lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, speaking on behalf of the alliance of small island states, noted that the group was not in the room when the decision was adopted. She said the text contained "good elements" but added that "the course correction that was needed has not been secured".

The EU today welcomed the deal, including on the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency, both by 2030.

"This outcome is not perfect... it reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept", chair of the least developed countries UN voting group Madeleine Diouf Sarr said.

The UK's climate minister, Graham Stuart, echoed her comments. "There are elements here that we do not like", but "we are unified around a common commitment to move away from fossil fuels", he said today.

Diouf Sarr and representatives of small island nations — which are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change — expressed concern over potential loopholes. The text "recognises that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security", which is interpreted by many as leaving a door open for natural gas or LNG.

"We want to raise the alarm that transitional fuels will become permanent, especially in developing countries", climate change ambassador for Antigua and Barbuda Diann Black-Layne said today. Germany's foreign minister Annalena Baerbock today raised the question of what the "energy systems" mentioned in the text could entail.

Oil and gas producing countries Qatar and Saudi Arabia pointed to what the former said was an "absence of equity". Both countries complained that the deal was focusing on the source of emissions — fossil fuels — instead of focusing on their reduction.

Developed countries should "enhance" support "for realising sustainable development" in developing nations, China's representative said. The text recognised that climate finance should "increase manyfold" and pointed to the trillions of dollars needed, though the process cannot mandate financial contributions.


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22/04/25

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Global economic growth is expected to be significantly lower in 2025-26 than previously anticipated because of the steep tariffs President Donald Trump is pursuing for most imports and the uncertainty his policies are generating, the IMF said. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released today, forecasts the global economy will grow by 2.8pc in 2025 and 3pc in 2026. That compares with the 3.3pc/yr growth for 2025-26 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. Today's forecast is based on the tariffs that Trump had in place as of 4 April, before he paused steep tariffs on most countries and escalated tarrifs on China. These barriers had pushed up the effective US tariff rate to levels "not seen in a century", the IMF said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, he has imposed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most imports, a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, a 25pc tariff on some imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145pc tariff on most imports from China. "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said. "The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook." IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The US and its closest trading partners appear to be among those hardest hit by tariffs and corresponding trade countermeasures. The IMF's baseline scenario forecasts US growth at 1.8pc this year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast the IMF released in January, reflecting higher policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand outlook. Mexico's economy is now projected to shrink by 0.3pc in 2025, rather than grow by 1.4pc, while Canada's growth is forecast at 1.4pc in 2025, down from 2pc. The release of the IMF report comes as Trump has given no indications of a shift in thinking on tariffs, which he says are generating billions of dollars for the US and will prompt companies to relocate their manufacturing capacity to the US. "THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!" Trump wrote on social media on 20 April. The next day, major stock markets indexes declined by more than 2pc, continuing their crash from when Trump began announcing his tariff policies. Trump on 21 April escalated his attacks against US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower interest rates as Trump has demanded. There could be a "SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late" — his nickname for Powell — "a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote. The IMF also ratcheted down its expectations for the Chinese economy. China's economy is expected to grow by 4pc/yr in 2025-26, down from the 4.6 and 4.5pc, respectively, the IMF was anticipating in January. The euro area is forecast to grow by 0.8pc in 2025 and 1.2pc in 2026, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants


22/04/25
News
22/04/25

Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants

Singapore, 22 April (Argus) — State-owned producer Coal India (CIL) plans to develop 1.6GW of coal-fired power capacity under a joint venture with state-controlled utility Damodar Valley (DVC) to meet rising demand and expand its non-coal revenue. India's top coal producer CIL plans to set up two brownfield thermal power units of 800MW each with DVC in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand, the company announced on 21 April. The brownfield expansion will be carried out at DVC's 500MW Chandrapura thermal power station. The 50:50 joint venture plans to invest 165bn rupees ($1.94bn) towards the expansion. The expanded capacity will source coal from the regional mines of CIL's subsidiary companies, Bharat Coking Coal and Central Coalfields. The firms did not disclose the timeline for the completion of this expansion. CIL has geared up to construct several super-critical or ultra super-critical pit-head thermal power plants to support the nation's requirement for affordable and reliable energy, the company said in its annual report for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2024. CIL announced plans to set up two brownfield thermal power units of 800MW each with state-owned utility Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (RRVUNL) at the latter's existing Kalisindh thermal project in the northern Indian state of Rajasthan in September 2024. India's installed thermal capacity stood at 247GW as of 31 March, with coal accounting for 215GW of this, and the rest being lignite, diesel and natural gas, according to data from the country's Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The country's total power capacity stood at 475GW as of 31 March. India plans to raise its electricity generation capacity by more than fourfold over the next two decades to cater to rising domestic demand, although the focus would be on boosting power production from cleaner sources of energy as the country takes steps to cut emissions. New Delhi is aiming to achieve a generation capacity of 2,100GW by 2047, power minister Manohar Lal Khattar said at the launch of National Electricity Plan for power transmission in October 2024. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions

Kingston, 21 April (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago and the US have agreed to seek ways to prevent Washington's sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector from harming the Caribbean country's natural gas production and energy security, both governments said. The administration of President Donald Trump revoked licenses earlier this month that had been granted by former president Joe Biden's government to gas-short Trinidad to develop the Dragon and Cocuina gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela. "Both sides agreed that we are going to work very closely to find a solution that achieves US objectives regarding Venezuela without harming Trinidad," the US State Department and Trinidad prime minister Stuart Young said. But neither government indicated how Trinidad would find alternative sources of feedstock in the short term to lift output of midstream and downstream products. Young and US secretary of state Marco Rubio discussed Trinidad's concerns in an 18 April telephone conversation, Young's office said. "Any outcomes of sanctions upon the Maduro regime and Venezuela is in no way indicative of our relationship with Trinidad and Tobago and the value we place on it," the state department said. Trinidad regards the cross-border gas fields as future sources of feedstock to counter a fall in domestic output that has suppressed LNG, petrochemicals and fertilizer production. It has struggled to recover gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a 4.3 Bcf/d peak in 2010. Trinidad's 2024 natural gas production of 2.53 Bcf/d was 2pc less than in the previous year, according to the latest data from the energy ministry. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) had cleared the way for Trinidad and Venezuela to develop the 4.3 trillion cf Dragon field. Ofac also granted BP and Trinidad's state-owned gas company NGC a license to develop the cross-border Cocuina-Manakin field, which contains at least 1 trillion cf. The Trump administration revoked licenses both this year. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Washington seeks input on GHG market changes


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

Washington seeks input on GHG market changes

Houston, 21 April (Argus) — Washington regulators are moving forward with a slew of potential changes to the state's "cap-and-invest" program through a pair of draft rules, despite ongoing uncertainty around new program mechanics under discussion in the California-Quebec carbon market. The Department of Ecology opened public comment for the two draft rules on 16 April for the revised carbon market linkage rulemaking it kicked off in March . The draft language builds on changes required by SB 6058 , which lawmakers passed last year at the request of Ecology, to smooth out any incompatibility between the state's program and the larger California-Quebec market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). In line with legislation, the agency is proposing to shift the program's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exemption for biomass-derived fuels to 35pc lower lifecycle emissions — down from 40pc — than the comparable petroleum fuels, allow the use of another jurisdiction's carbon offsets issued after July 2019 for compliance, and lower the allowance holding limits for general participants in a linked market. Ecology is proposing other changes required by the law, such as accounting for emissions from imported electricity. Changes Ecology is proposing that are not required by SB 6058 include accounting for the combined total allowances between all three jurisdictions in the program's holding limit formulas and adding quarterly future vintage allowance auctions in line with the WCI. Ecology began pursuit of linking with the WCI in 2023 , the first year of the Washington's program. While the agency continues to move forward on linkage-related due diligence required by state law, some program changes needed to join the WCI market, such as aligning program compliance periods and corporate affiliation group disclosures, must wait for guidance from California and Quebec. Ongoing work by the current WCI members to update their respective regulations has run into a series of delays . One potential change California Air Resources Board staff floated in April 2024 is aligning the end of each compliance cycle with the program's emissions reduction targets in 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045, rather than the current three-year compliance cycle. But the agency has largely been silent on the issue since, including in its most recent market notice on planned changes in October 2024. Washington's "cap-and-invest" program aims to cut GHG emissions by 45pc by 2030, compared with 1990 levels, and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The program covers industrial facilities, natural gas suppliers, power plants and other fuel suppliers with GHG emissions of at least 25,000 t/yr. Ecology is requesting public comment on the draft language through 16 May. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s thermal coal imports ease in March


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

India’s thermal coal imports ease in March

Singapore, 21 April (Argus) — India's thermal coal imports in March fell on the year for the seventh consecutive month, pressured by rising domestic output and high inventories even as coal-fired generation expanded. The country imported 14.1mn t of thermal coal in March, down by 1.2pc from a year earlier, but up by over 24pc from 11.33mn t in February, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Coal arrivals declined year-on-year across key origins barring Indonesia and South Africa. India's cumulative imports over January-March stood at 38.3mn t, down by 8.6pc from 41.9mn t in the same period a year earlier, according to Interocean data. Demand for imported coal fell as domestic availability continued to rise. The combined output from state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks reached 118.54mn t in March, up by 1.6pc from a year earlier, according to data from the country's coal ministry. Overall supplies stood at 94.94mn t, up by 5.1pc from a year earlier. Combined coal supplies to utilities from domestic sources stood at 78.46mn t in March, up by 6.3pc from a year earlier and up from 69.61mn t in February, coal ministry data show. The increase in domestic coal output and supplies helped utilities to increase stocks to cater for an increase in coal consumption at power plants in March. But the higher domestic coal availability pressured imports. The country's coal-fired generation reached 117.95TWh in March, up from 112.82TWh a year earlier and well above the 106.18TWh in February, according to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data. Higher temperatures and increased air conditioning use lifted coal-fired output in March. Coal burn at utilities could remain elevated over the summer months and exacerbate drawdowns from stocks at power plants and at coal producer CIL. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 58.11mn t as of 31 March, up from 50.69mn t a year earlier, and up from 54.59mn t on 28 February, the CEA said. Inventories at CIL reached an all-time high of 106.8mn t as of 31 March, up from 89.41mn t a year earlier. Import mix Imports from Indonesia grew to 9.68mn t in March from 9.23mn t a year earlier, and were sharply higher from 6.75mn t in February, Interocean data show. Indonesia continued to be the primary supplier of imported coal to India in March, accounting for nearly 69pc of overall thermal coal imports, up from almost 60pc in February. Imports from South Africa, a source favoured by coal-consuming industries like sponge iron, rose by 72pc from a year earlier to 2.32mn t, but fell from 2.42mn t in February. Demand from India's coal-intensive sponge iron industry, which is a major consumer of South African NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal, remained resilient following a stimulus measure from the Indian government to introduce steel safeguards , which in turn has driven domestic sponge iron prices higher. By Ajay Modi India thermal coal imports in March 2025 t Origin Quantity % ± m-o-m % ± y-o-y Indonesia 9,684,944 43.4 5 South Africa 2,323,265 -4 72.1 USA 1,132,417 66.8 -17.1 Russia 435,120 -27.1 -20.8 Mozambique 68,306 -42.7 -85.7 Others 458,288 -21.4 -44.1 Total 14,102,340 24.4 -1.2 Source: Interocean Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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