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Crude Summit: Brazil, Guyana replace Urals in Europe

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 24/01/24

Brazilian and Guyanese medium sweet grades have replaced Russian Urals in Europe and are unlikely to face competition from other crude producing Latin American countries, according to Gustavo Hooper, head of trading and shipping at Brazilian independent Prio.

"After the changes with the Russia and Ukrainian war, China lost a bit of the market share for Brazilian grades and Europe gained momentum in the purchase of Brazilian grades," Hooper said Tuesday at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas.

Brazilian and Guyanese crude have become an alternative for Russian medium sour Urals and Guyana is routing 60pc of its exports to Europe, he added.

But south of Brazil and Guyana is another growing oil producing country that expects to position itself as key exporter of sweet crude — Argentina. Argentina frequently exports its light sweet Medanito crude, which is produced in the Vaca Muerta shale formation.

The sweet crudes from all three Latin American countries already share a key destination market at the US west coast, although Medanito is mostly transported on Panamax tankers, while larger vessels can be used to haul Brazilian and Guyanese crudes. Medanito is expected to become a regional grade and less likely to compete globally with Brazilian and Guyanese crudes due its logistical constraints, Gustavo said.

The potential of additional Venezuelan crude is also not expected to compete with Brazilian and Guyanese crude due to the difference in crude quality, as Venezuela exports are mostly heavy sours. Venezuelan crude flows have also shifted away from Asia and into the US Gulf coast, which "opened the Asia market for us to move more of our barrels to," Hooper said.


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03/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to speed up unwinding cuts from May: Update


03/04/25
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03/04/25

Opec+ eight to speed up unwinding cuts from May: Update

Adds details throughout Dubai, 3 April (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ crude producers, in a surprise move, today agreed to speed up plans to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of production cuts by increasing their collective output target for May by 411,000 b/d — three times the rise originally planned. "In view of the continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook… the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411,000 b/d, equivalent to three monthly increments, in May 2025," the group said. Front month Ice Brent futures fell by around $1/bl to $70.50/bl in response to the news, and slipped further to below $70/bl later before recovering slightly. The eight countries ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan ꟷ last month decided to proceed with a plan to begin gradually unwinding the 2.2mn b/d of production cuts from April over 18 months. The original plan was to see their combined output target rise by 137,000 b/d on a monthly basis until September 2026. Although it is unclear whether the group will revert back to 137,000 b/d increments after May, this change should, theoretically, mean that the eight will return the last of the 2.2mn b/d in July 2026, rather than September. But the volume of oil that actually returns to the market each month will probably be less than the monthly target increases as all of the eight countries, bar Algeria, have past overproduction which they have committed to compensating for over the months ahead. The group said today that the decision to raise output targets by 411,000 b/d for May, versus 137,000 b/d, would also "provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation". The seven countries with overproduction to compensate for submitted their updated plans to the Opec secretariat two weeks ago, outlining how they plan to deliver that compensation. It is unclear whether today's decision has rendered those plans moot, but it should allow for at least some of the countries to clear more of that they owe next month. Full implementation of the compensation cuts has become increasingly important for the group as it looks to balance market expectations with internal group dynamics. Frustration has built up among some members of the group towards the likes of Iraq and Kazakhstan which have regularly flouted their quotas. What is most surprising about the move is timing, coming the day after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new global tariffs on a range of imports. That triggered an immediate sell-off in oil futures and stock markets over fears of deteriorating demand in an escalating trade war. But the tariff announcements did not appear to be at the forefront of Opec+ eight minds, with one delegate expressing scepticism that the Trump administration's tariffs were here to stay. The impact is unlikely to be as severe as many fear, they said. Instead, the decision primarily factored in the pick up in oil demand that typically comes with the start of the summer in the northern hemisphere. "A big part of this 411,000 b/d will go to meet that additional demand," one delegate said. Additionally, the move should also enhance internal group dynamics, given the frustration that had been building among some in the group prior to last month's decision to start the unwinding in April, while at the same time getting the thumbs up from the US president who had already called on Opec and its allies to "bring down the cost of oil," something it could only achieve by raising output. Trump has said that he will be visiting Saudi Arabia sometime in May, when the group of eight countries begins to accelerate the return of those barrels. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. US major trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US services grow at slowest pace in 9 months: ISM


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

US services grow at slowest pace in 9 months: ISM

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US services sector expanded in March at the slowest pace since last June, with orders, export orders and employment sliding into contraction, as companies braced for tariffs threatened by the US administration. The headline purchasing managers' index (PMI) slowed to 50.8 in March from 53.5 the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) latest survey on activity in the biggest part of the economy. New orders slowed to 50.4 from 52.2, and employment fell to 46.2, showing contraction, from 53.9 the prior month. The breakeven threshold between growth and contraction is 50. New export orders fell to 45.8 in March from 52.1 the prior month. Imports rose to 52.6 from 49.6. The weakening services gauge follows ISM's manufacturing PMI, reported on 1 April, that showed factory activity fell to 49 in March, the first contraction in three months, which followed more than two years of contraction. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNOW tracker on Thursday forecast a 2.8pc annual contraction in US gross domestic product in the first quarter, which will be reported at the end of April. Services business activity/production grew to 55.9 last month from 54.4 the prior month. The price index fell to 60.9 from 62.6, showing slowing price growth. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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