Argus Phosphate Rock Analytics
Overview
The Argus Phosphate Rock Analytics service connects you with industry-leading phosphate rock market intelligence. The service includes quarterly reports and data with 15-year forecasts of supply, demand, trade and prices, and one longer-term annual report with 25-year price forecasts (based on Long Run Marginal Cost analysis).
We empower phosphate market participants to make informed business decisions. Use the service to:
- Inform your business plans: Get robust, actionable and industry leading insight on medium to long-term market developments and outlook
- Mitigate risk to your business: Stay up to date with potential regulations, policy changes and market fundamentals challenges
- Access comprehensive market data: Explore extensive raw data to assist your research and planning – and integrate the data into your models
- Find your next big opportunity: Our proprietary datasets and expert insight help you identify and capitalise on future opportunities
Key features
Price forecasts: 15-years and 25-years
Quarterly 15-year and 25-year forecasts are provided for phosphate rock benchmark prices, including India 68-70pc BPL Trend, India 70-72pc BPL Trend, Morocco 69pc BPL Trend and Morocco 71pc BPL Trend.
Supply and demand forecasts: 15-years
Quarterly 15-year forecasts and in-depth analysis is provided for phosphate rock supply and demand (includes phosphate rock capacity tracker and forecast). Demand analysis includes country and region focused analysis. Short-term supply/demand balance for DAP, MAP, and medium-term supply/demand balance for phosphate rock included.
Trade forecasts: 15-years
Import and export analysis and 15-year forecasts for key countries/regions including India, Asia, Morocco, Africa, Central Asia, North America, and Latin America.
Cost curves analysis
The service includes Argus ex-works phosphate rock cost curve and Argus export phosphate rock cost curve for the current year for all key phosphate rock producing markets, updated quarterly.
Project analysis/spotlight feature
Each quarterly issue of the service includes an in-depth project review (including full cost analysis, financial review and evaluation of cash flow) or spotlight features (for example the lithium iron phosphate batteries sector).
Best-in-class methodology
Our key methodologies include our demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts to guide our view of future fertilizer consumption and our Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) multi-factor model to assess the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle.
Costs/inputs analysis and forecasts
The service includes quarterly analysis and forecast of dry bulk freight analysis.
Quarterly reports
Narrative and graphical analysis of what is driving the phosphate rock market and how it is likely to evolve, ensuring you will be more confident in making critical decisions. Includes key insight on supply, demand, costs, trade and projects, with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices.
Annual long-term report
Detailed, long-form analysis of all the historical and long-term phosphate rock market trends. Use the report to reveal the connections between underlying market drivers and use these insights to develop more robust strategies. Includes 25-year price forecast based on Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) analysis.
Customers that benefit
Below are examples of clients that use this service:
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Producers and suppliers
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Traders
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Energy and utilities companies
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Producers of metals and battery materials
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Shipping and port authorities
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Procurement teams
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Industry analysts
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Governments
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Financial institutions including bankers and investors
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Wholesalers
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Co-ops and retailers
Product specifications
Key price assessments
Argus phosphate price assessments are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.
