Weight of Freight: VLGC troubles to persist through the rainy season at Panama Canal
Weight of Freight: VLGC troubles to persist through the rainy season at Panama Canal
As draught restrictions ease with the start of a much-awaited rainy season in the Panama Canal, difficulties are likely to persist for very large gas carriers (VLGCs) as other shipping markets move back to the route and escalate competition for transit slots.
Listen to Andres Pacheco, Analyst at the LPG Trading desk for Spain’s Repsol, and Yohanna Pinheiro, LPG Freight Market Reporter, discuss how increased competition to transit the Panama Canal and other market drivers will shape the costs of shipping LPG.
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Key topics covered
- Competitive advantages of the Panama Canal route in US-Asia routes for VLGCs
- Details of the Panama Canal booking system and slot auction price trends
- Effects of eased restrictions at the canal in heightening competition for slots among other markets
- Weather outlook and possible La Nina effects in the markets
- Long term projects to alleviate transits at Panama Canal
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Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal
Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal
London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate
Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate
Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Record high crude exports in Vancouver have lifted short-haul Aframax rates in the region, pressuring the Vancouver-US west coast rate to its highest level since before the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) came online in May. The rate to ship 80,000t of crude, or about 550,000 bl of Cold Lake, from Vancouver to the US west coast climbed to Worldscale (WS) 182.5, equivalent to $2.39/bl, on 29 October, the highest since 21 March. It sustained that level through 4 November before inching lower to WS180 on 5 November, according to Argus data. The seven-month high came after a record 24 Aframaxes loaded at Vancouver's Westridge Marine Terminal in October , according to shipowner Teekay Tankers and ship-tracking data from Kpler. The previous record was 21 in July. October's loadings coincided with a record 413,000 b/d of crude exported from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system the same month. Of the 24 Aframaxes, nine went directly to Asia-Pacific ports while five went to the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) to discharge onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The remainder traveled to ports on the US west coast. A recent shift in charterers' preferences to ship crude directly from Vancouver to destinations in Asia-Pacific , rather than via PAL, has contributed to the upward pressure in rates to the US west coast since September. Direct transpacific shipments remove vessels from the west coast North America market for about 45 days. October's high number of Aframax loadings has had less of an impact on the rate for Vancouver-China shipments, which tend to load later in the loading window and open the number of potential vessels to ships in the east Asia market. Aframaxes hired for Vancouver-US west coast runs often are provisionally booked about five to 10 days in advance of loading, compared with 15-20 days in advance for Vancouver-China shipments. The Vancouver-China Aframax rate was $2.8mn lumpsum, or $5.13/bl for Cold Lake, on 5 November, according to Argus data. That rate had been rangebound between $2.8mn and $2.9mn between 26 September and 5 November. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows
Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows
Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Phillips 66's plans for a late 2025 shutdown of its 139,000 b/d refinery in Los Angeles, California, will likely lead to more trans-Pacific refined products tanker shipments into the US west coast while having a more muted effect on crude tankers. Phillips 66 said it would likely shut the refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing the high regulatory costs of operating in California. While it is unclear what will become of the facility, Phillips 66 said it still plans to supply the region with road fuels in the future. The closure will reduce California's refining capacity by 8.6pc to about 1.48mn b/d and removes about 14pc of refining capacity in the Los Angeles area. Tankers hauled about 160,000 b/d of refined products to California in January-October, with about 95,000 b/d going to Los Angeles, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa. About 27pc of the deliveries to Los Angeles came from refiners on the US Gulf coast and elsewhere on the US west coast on Jones Act-compliant vessels, which must be US-built, US-flagged and US-crewed. But the relatively small Jones Act fleet is already fully utilized, with no additional ships on order, shipbroker Poten said. This means replacement supplies of refined products will need to come from farther afield, likely Asia-Pacific. South Korea is Los Angeles' biggest source of waterborne refined products so far this year, shipping about 33,000 b/d in January-October, Vortexa data show, followed by other US sources (25,000 b/d), China (9,000 b/d), India (9,000 b/d) and Canada (8,500 b/d). Taiwan, Singapore and Japan also have supplied marginal cargoes to Los Angeles this year. An increase of California-bound shipments from these countries would create additional demand for voyages lasting a range of 19-35 days, boosting ton-mile demand and tanker employment in the Pacific basin. Medium range (MR) and long range 1 (LR1) refined product tankers would benefit the most from these increased trade flows, with MRs accounting for 67pc of the current market share and LR1s 33pc, according to Vortexa data. Tanker demand for exports from the US west coast is unlikely to be affected. Phillips 66 Los Angeles exported just 2,000-4,000 b/d of products in January-October, data from Kpler and Vortexa show. Limited impact on crude tankers Because Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery was designed to process domestic California crude, the impact on the regional crude tanker market likely will be much more limited — and offset by increased tanker demand on Canada's Pacific coast. With available domestic — albeit declining — California crude production, the 139,000 b/d refinery imported 64,000 b/d of crude in January-August 2024, mostly from short-haul sources in the Americas, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show. The trade was dominated by 1mn bl Suezmaxes and 500,000-700,000 bl Aframaxes. The refinery imported 15.52mn bl of crude in January-August 2024, according to the EIA. Canada was the largest international supplier (4.84mn bl) in that span, boosted by the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline start-up in May, followed by Guyana (3.48mn bl) via the Trans-Panama Pipeline, Mexico (2.98mn bl), Brazil (2.92mn bl) and Ecuador (1.3mn bl). Because of the refinery's use of domestic crude supplies, the complex's imports are equivalent to just two Suezmax shipments or three Aframax shipments per month. For the regional tanker market, that is more than offset by the burgeoning TMX flows on Canada's Pacific coast, which in October loaded a record 24 Aframaxes , destined to refineries in China and the US west coast. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US job growth slumps in October, jobless rate at 4.1pc
US job growth slumps in October, jobless rate at 4.1pc
Houston, 1 November (Argus) — The US added only 12,000 nonfarm jobs in October, reflecting the impacts of two hurricanes, a strike at aircraft manufacturer Boeing and a slowing trend in hiring prompted by high borrowing costs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1pc, still close to a five-decade low of 3.4pc reached in early 2023, the Labor Department reported today. Last month's gains were far fewer than the 113,000 forecast by analysts surveyed by Trading Economics. Job gains for the prior two months were revised down by a combined 112,000 jobs, leaving September with a still robust 233,000 and August with 78,000 jobs. A Labor Department report earlier this week showed job openings in September were at their lowest since January 2021. Still, job gains for the 12 months through October averaged 194,000, a little higher than the 12-month period before Covid-19 struck the US beginning in early 2020, causing millions of job losses and a sharp but short recession. Today's employment report, the last before next week's US presidential election, cements odds of a quarter point cut in the Federal Reserve's target rate next week to nearly 100pc from about 96pc Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The Fed cut its rate by half a point in late September, the first cut since 2020, as it is just beginning to loosen monetary policy after the sharpest tightening in decades to battle surging price gains. Inflation has since moved close to its 2pc target and job gains have gradually slowed, even as the economy remains robust, growing by nearly 3pc in the second and third quarters of the year. Hurricane Helene made landfall in northern Florida in late September and slammed northwards into Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia, leaving major damage in its wake. Hurricane Milton struck Florida on 9 October, within the period of both surveys used for the job report. About 32,000 unionized workers at Boeing have been on strike since early September. Job growth trended up in government and in health care and social services, which added 40,000 and 51,000, respectively, while manufacturing declined by 46,000, partly due to strikes. Construction added 8,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings edged up to an annual 4pc from 3.9pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
