EIA cuts WTI, Brent price forecasts steeply
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its 2016 estimate for average WTI crude prices down by more than $12/bl to $38.54/bl.
The agency also lowered its average Brent crude price forecast for this year to $40.15/bl, more than $15/bl lower than the previous estimate, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook (Steo).
But the agency also warned that current values of futures and options contracts "continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook."
The forecast decline came on the heels of a similar move by various banks including BofA Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale and Wells Fargo, which cut price forecasts for this year after US benchmark WTI futures dropped by about 10pc last week. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said yesterday that oil prices in the $20-$25/bl range are possible in part because of a stronger US dollar.
Prices have been pressured by record high crude and product inventories, signs of slowing global economic growth and Iran's imminent re-entry into the market as western sanctions are lifted.
WTI prices today fell below $30/bl in intraday trade.
The EIA included 2017 prices forecasts for the first time in the Steo. Brent prices next year should average $50/bl and WTI prices should average $47/bl.
US output should drop steadily this year to 8.5mn b/d in November 2016 from about 9.2mn b/d in December, the agency said.
The 700,000 b/d drop this year because of low crude prices will be the first annual decline since 2008, said EIA administrator Adam Sieminski. Production is expected to stay near 8.5mn b/d for most of 2017.
The EIA estimates that production in December fell by 80,000 b/d compared to the previous month.
Global consumption of crude and other liquid fuels should continue to grow by 1.4mn b/d in both 2016 and 2017.
Opec production should rise by 500,000 b/d this year, as Iran increases production. Iran's crude output is forecast to grow by 300,000 b/d in 2016 and by 500,000 b/d in 2017.
The forecast growth of Iran's output "also depends on internal factors including Iran's ability to mitigate production decline rates and meet technical challenges and on its willingness to discount oil," the EIA said.
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Plaza Marine alleges Ankora used company secrets
Plaza Marine alleges Ankora used company secrets
New York, 6 September (Argus) — New Jersey-based marine fuel supplier Plaza Marine is suing another supplier, Ankora Fuels, alleging that two former Plaza Marine employees used company trade secrets to benefit a rival company and to compete in the same market. Plaza Marine alleges that the two ex-employees, John and Zachary Barbarise, used its trade secrets, confidential information, customer, and supplier relationships to conduct business that is virtually identical to Plaza Marine, according to the suit filed last month in US District Court for the District of New Jersey. John Barbarise was vice president of sales and trading at Plaza Marine until May 2023 and Zachary Barbarise was an operations manager until July 2024. Both individuals are listed as defendants in the suit in addition to Ankora Fuels. According to the lawsuit, John and Zachary's positions at Plaza Marine gave them access to proprietary information about Plaza Marine's business including contracts with its customers, supplier lists and long-term planning like price strategies for its customers. Plaza Marine alleges that John and Zachary used this information to attempt to "clone" Plaza Marine including chartering a vessel that is a long-term vendor of the company and creating a pricing methodology that is like Plaza Marine. This has created confusion in the marine fuel market, according to Plaza Marine. "By creating a competing company engaged in virtually the same activities as Plaza Marine, it is inevitable that John and Zachary will necessarily use and disclose Plaza Marine's trade secrets for their own personal gain and to create an unfair competitive advantage for Ankora," the company said in the suit. According to the lawsuit, prior to resigning from Plaza Marine, Zachary allegedly contacted John on multiple occasions and accessed files related to Plaza Marine's customers, including once after an internal meeting that discussed confidential information related to its customers and suppliers. Zachary also allegedly created Google document files on a personal device and copied and pasted Plaza Marine's trade secrets into that file prior to departing from the company. Plaza Marine alleges that Zachary was passing along this confidential information to John for use at Ankora. Ankora said the allegations are "completely baseless" and that John and Zachary have never taken any information from Plaza Marine. The company said that Zachary has never worked for Ankora and the Google sheets Plaza Marine allegedly found in Zachary's computer were files "for a fantasy football draft and an ultimate fighting championship contest." "The simple truth is Plaza Marine does not want to face competition from a new player in its space. Plaza Marine wants to continue to mistreat customers and other business partners by blocking Ankora Fuels' entry into the market. That's why Plaza Marine has filed this baseless lawsuit. Plain and simple. We are confident that our customers will see the same, and that they will realize – if they haven't already – that Plaza Marine is not a good partner for their businesses," Ankora said. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
East-west marine biodiesel spread near six-month low
East-west marine biodiesel spread near six-month low
London, 6 September (Argus) — The east-west marine biodiesel spread narrowed amid firm demand for the B24 blend in Singapore and lacklustre spot marine biodiesel demand in northwest Europe in recent sessions. The east-west marine biodiesel spread — the premium held by B30 used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) dob ARA to B24 Ucome dob Singapore — was marked at $47.50/t on 5 September, its narrowest since 19 March. The spread narrowed amid a noted increase in demand from Asian-based shipowners who embark on voyages to Europe ahead of the implementation of FuelEU Maritime regulations in Europe next year — according to market participants. The latter had also reported an increase in B24 demand in Singapore from containerships seeking scope 3 emissions rights that can then be passed on to cargo owners. Scope 3 emissions rights can be obtained on a mass-balance system, allowing shipowners flexibility with regards to the port at which a blend can be bunkered. Argus assessed B24 dob Singapore prices at an average of $720.70/t on 1 July–5 September this year, compared with $757.70/t on 8 February–28 June following the launch of the B30 Ucome dob ARA price on 8 February. Consequently, the east-west marine biodiesel spread was marked at an average of $95.34/t on 1 July–5 September, compared with $74.57/t on 8 February–28 June. A wider east-west spread would incentivise shipowners to opt for the B24 blend in Singapore rather than ARA, when operationally viable, to meet the voluntary scope 3 demand from their customers. Rising demand in the Singapore bunkering hub was further supplemented by higher sales of marine biodiesel blends at the port. According to official data released by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, sales of marine biodiesel blends in the second quarter of the year were marked at about 161,400t — higher by 34,500t from the previous quarter. This was also higher by 52,600t from the second quarter of last year. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Mexico City, 5 September (Argus) — Service providers for Mexico's Pemex are unable to submit new invoices for services performed nearly a year ago even as the state-owned company also struggles to pay down past bills, sources say. These unsubmitted invoices do not appear in Pemex's financial records or in its monthly supplier debt reports, three Pemex suppliers who work mostly in the northern region of the Gulf of Mexico told Argus . Pemex provides vendors a system to submit bills for review and processing, leading to an invoice codifying payments and discounts (Copades). At this stage, Pemex certifies the pending invoice, making it part of the company's monthly supplier report —a transparency measure implemented in 2021. Pemex reduced its overdue debts to service providers by 6pc from May-July, with Ps126.4bn ($6.78bn) in unpaid invoices as of 31 July, down from Ps133.9bn in May. But a significant amount of unbilled work remains because Pemex has not issued the necessary Copades for vendors to begin the payment process, and some of the bills date back to work performed in September, according to two of the vendors. Without the Copades, companies must classify these debts as uncollectible, one vendor said. The issue is concentrated in Mexico's northeast maritime region, where Pemex produces about half of its crude and gas output, according to the vendors. This region includes the Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zap fields. Pemex has requested vendors to perform tasks in the area, but the company then claims there is no budget allocated for those bills, the vendors said. This unbilled work adds to Pemex's recognized debt to suppliers, but the size of this unrecognized debt is impossible to estimate, the vendors added. Pemex's unpaid invoices and short-term vendor debts stand at record-high levels, despite receiving over $70bn in government support since 2019. By Edgar Sigler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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