Trump presidency may help Jones Act: analysts

Market: Crude oil, Freight, Oil products
18/11/16

The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency may mildly support demand for Jones Act tonnage, according to shipping analysts, but the extent to which the president-elect's policies may boost domestic crude production is unclear.

"I do not think Trump will have a big impact on oil production in the US with the exception of expanded Alaskan drilling, which would be good for Jones Act tonnage", said Court Smith, an analyst at shipbroker MJLF.

The bulk of crude that is produced in Alaska travels on Jones Act-compliant tonnage down to refineries along the US west coast. Alaskan crude exports, which are no longer required to move on US-flagged ships, have been minimal this year, amounting to only 14,000 b/d through August, according to data from the EIA.

The extent to which a Trump presidency will boost US crude production in all regions is unclear. Lessened regulation could encourage higher domestic output, though Trump's campaign statements on limiting Opec's imports into the US will likely be backpedaled, said Matt Smith, an analyst at shipping intelligence firm ClipperData. Sustained imports could limit price increases and hinder new drilling.

Looser regulation should not encourage much additional domestic production given that the oil market still appears to be oversupplied, said Court Smith. "The shale boom occurred under the Obama administration and was driven by the high price of oil", he said.

The election of Trump also assuages fears of repeal of the Jones Act, which restricts shipping between US ports to US-flagged, US-built, and mostly US-crewed vessels.

"The Jones Act is expected to stay safe, with Trump advisor Wilbur Ross mentioning that the president-elect was likely neutral towards the US cabotage regime", said research from shipbroker Banchero Costa.

Trump might have indirectly helped cement the Jones Act today with his announcement that US representative Mike Pompeo (R-Kansas) was his pick to lead the Central Intelligence Agency, which would remove one of Congress' most vocal opponents of the law from Capitol Hill.

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09/05/25

Iraq edging towards compliance under Opec+ pressure

Dubai, 9 May (Argus) — Iraq managed to produce just below its formal Opec+ crude production target in April for the second month in a row, following intense pressure from other members of the group to improve on its historically poor compliance record. But the country still has much to do to compensate for past overproduction. Over the last 16 months, Iraq has been among the Opec+ group's most prolific quota-busters, alongside Kazakhstan and, to a lesser degree, Russia. Argus estimates the country's output averaged over 130,000 b/d above its 4mn b/d target last year. This non-compliance has strained unity within Opec+ and was the driving force behind the group's recent decision to unwind production cuts at a much faster pace than originally planned. Iraq has made some progress on improving compliance this year, reducing production by around 190,000 b/d in the first four months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, according to Argus assessments. Output stood at 3.94mn b/d in April, which was more than 70,000 b/d below Baghdad's formal 4.01mn b/d quota for the month. And in March, Iraq was 20,000 b/d below its then 4mn b/d quota. But this is far from mission accomplished. Along with other overproducers, Iraq has agreed a plan to compensate for exceeding formal quotas since the start of 2024, yet it has fallen short of its commitments in that regard. April's output was almost 50,000 b/d above its 3.89mn b/d effective quota for the month, taking into account the compensation plan. Iraq attributes its compliance issues to ongoing disagreements with the semi-autonomous Kurdish region over crude production levels. The oil ministry claims it lost oversight of the Kurdish region's production since the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) was closed in March 2023. Despite the pipeline closure shutting Kurdish producers out of international export markets, Argus assesses current output in the Kurdistan region ranges between 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, of which considerable volumes are smuggled into Iran and Turkey at hefty discounts to market prices. An understanding between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), when implemented, would see Kurdish production average 300,000 b/d, with 185,000 b/d shipped through the ITP and the rest directed to local refineries. Peer pressure Despite the challenges, it is hard to argue that Iraq is not heading in the right direction. Pressure from the Opec Secretariat and the Opec+ alliance's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has pushed Baghdad to take some tough decisions to rein in production, which include cutting crude exports and limiting crude intake at domestic refineries. Kpler data show Iraqi crude exports, excluding the Kurdish region, fell to 3.34mn b/d in January-April from 3.42mn b/d a year earlier, while cuts to domestic refinery runs have prompted Baghdad to increase gasoil imports to ensure it has enough fuel for power generation. Fearing revenue constraints, Iraq is trying to persuade Opec+ to increase its output quota, motivated by a previous upward revision to the UAE's target. Baghdad's budget for 2022-25 includes plans to spend $153bn/yr. But this is based on a crude price assumption of $70/bl and projected oil exports of 3.5mn b/d, both of which now look out of date. By Bachar Halabi and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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White House ends use of carbon cost

09/05/25

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09/05/25

White House ends use of carbon cost

Washington, 9 May (Argus) — The US is ending its use of a metric for estimating the economic damages from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the latest reversal of climate change policies supported by President Donald Trump's predecessors. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this week directed federal agencies to stop using the social cost of carbon as part of any regulatory or decision-making practices, except in cases where it is required by law, citing the need "remove any barriers put in place by previous administrations" that restrict the ability of the US to get the most benefit "from our abundant natural resources". "Under this guidance, the circumstances where agencies will need to engage in monetized greenhouse gas emission analysis will be few to none," OMB said in a 5 May memo to federal agencies. In cases where such an analysis is required by law, agencies should limit their work "to the minimum consideration required" and address only the domestic effects, unless required by law. OMB said these steps are needed to ensure sound regulatory decisions and avoid misleading the public because the uncertainties of such analyses "are too great". The budget office issued the guidance in response to an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, which also disbanded an interagency working group on the social cost of carbon and called for faster permitting for domestic oil and gas production and the termination of various orders issued by former president Joe Biden related to combating climate change. The metric, first established by the administration of former US president Barack Obama, has been subject to a tug of war between Democrats and Republicans. Trump, in his first term, slashed the value of the social cost of carbon, a move Biden later reversed . Biden then directed agencies to fold the metric into their procurement processes and environmental reviews. The US began relying on the cost estimate in 2010, offering a way to estimate the full costs and benefits of climate-related regulations. The Biden administration estimated the global cost of emitting CO2 at $120-$340/metric tonne and included it in rules related to cars, trucks, residential appliances, ozone standards, methane emission rules, refineries and federal oil and gas leases. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

09/05/25

News

09/05/25

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazil's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.53pc in April, accelerating for a third month despite six central bank rate hikes since September aimed at cooling the economy. The country's annualized inflation accelerated from 5.48pc in March and 5.06pc in February, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Food and beverages rose by an annual 7.81pc, up from 7.68pc in March. Ground coffee increased at an annual 80.2pc, accelerating from 77.78pc in the month prior. Still, soybean oil prices decelerated to 22.83pc in April from 24.36pc in March. Domestic power consumption costs rose to 0.71pc from 0.33pc a month earlier. Transportation costs decelerated to 5.49pc from 6.05pc in March. Gasoline prices slowed to a 8.86pc gain from 10.89pc a month earlier. The increase in ethanol and diesel prices decelerated as well to 13.9pc and 6.42pc in April from 20.08pc and 8.13pc in March, respectively. The hike in compressed natural gas prices (CNG) fell to 3.5pc from 3.92pc a month prior. Inflation posted the seventh consecutive monthly increase above the central bank's goal of 3pc, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank increased its target interest rate for the sixth time in a row to 14.75pc on 7 May. The bank has been trying to counter soaring inflation as it has recently changed the way it tracks its goal. Monthly cooldown But Brazil's monthly inflation decelerated to 0.43pc in April from a 0.56pc gain in March. Food and beverages decelerated on a monthly basis to 0.82pc in April from a 1.17pc increase a month earlier, according to IBGE. Housing costs also decelerated to 0.24pc from 0.14pc in March. Transportation costs contracted by 0.38pc and posted the largest monthly contraction in April. Diesel prices posted the largest contraction at 1.27pc in April. Petrobras made three diesel price readjustments in April-May. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia threatens to stop oil imports from Singapore

09/05/25

News

09/05/25

Indonesia threatens to stop oil imports from Singapore

Singapore, 9 May (Argus) — Indonesian market participants have reacted with caution to a call by the country's energy minister to stop all oil imports from Singapore. Energy and mineral resources minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 8 May that Indonesia should stop purchases from Singapore and instead buy directly from oil producers in the Middle East, according to media reports that were confirmed by several Indonesian market participants. Discussions are taking place but there is so far no official statement from the ministry nor any direction from managers in the oil industry, one market participant said. "None of us are taking it seriously" and it is still "business as usual", the official said. The regional trading hub of Singapore is a major supplier of oil products to Indonesia, and any end to shipments from the country would upend trade flows. Singapore is the biggest gasoline supplier to Indonesia, accounting for more than 60pc of total shipments, according to customs data. Singapore exported 236,000 b/d of gasoline to Indonesia in 2024, with Malaysia a distant second at 79,500 b/d. Singapore is also one of Indonesia's top gasoil and jet fuel suppliers, shipping over 54,000 b/d of gasoil and 8,300 b/d of jet fuel to the country in January-April this year, according to data from government agency Enterprise Singapore. The government has already begun to build docks that can accommodate larger, long-haul vessels, Bahlil said, according to state-owned media. Any move by Indonesian importers to switch purchases to the Mideast Gulf would increase the replacement cost of supply because of higher freight rates, said market participants. Indonesian buyers are currently negotiating term contracts on a fob Singapore basis, so a sudden cut in supplies would not be feasible. The term contract is due for renewal soon, traders said. State-owned oil firm Pertamina, the dominant products importer, is expected to begin term negotiations for its second-half 2025 requirements in May-June. A decision by Indonesia to end imports from Singapore would cut regional gasoline demand but could be bullish for the market overall, given the extra logistics required to blend elsewhere and ship into southeast Asia. The Mideast Gulf currently supplies mainly Pakistan and Africa, with just 15pc of gasoline exports from the region heading towards Indonesia and Singapore in 2024, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler. Indonesia's energy ministry (ESDM) did not immediately reply to a request for confirmation of Bahlil's comments. They came a day after the country's president Prabowo Subianto called for Indonesia to become self-sufficient in oil in the next five years. Indonesia has also proposed raising energy imports from the US as part of talks to reduce import tariffs threatened by president Donald Trump. Indonesia is considering boosting imports of crude, LPG, LNG and refined fuels in order to rebalance its trade surplus and ease bilateral tensions, government officials have said. By Aldric Chew and Lu Yawen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU consults on tariffs for €95bn US imports

09/05/25

News

09/05/25

EU consults on tariffs for €95bn US imports

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