News
05/05/25
Low-carbon H2 hits the skids with offtake lagging
Houston, 5 May (Argus) — Multiple North American proposals to make hydrogen from
natural gas with carbon capture have taken a pause as tariffs add to cost
uncertainties and potential buyers balk at making long-term commitments at
current prices. Dow has iced its Path2Zero ethylene plant in Alberta that is to
use low-carbon hydrogen supplied by Linde. Air Products has delayed the start-up
of a hydrogen and ammonia plant in Louisiana. And US nitrogen fertilizer
producer LSB Industries said it is [pausing development] of an ammonia project
on the Houston Ship Channel in Texas. Lower-carbon hydrogen produced from
autothermal reforming with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is still
expected to lead the nascent sector's development, with renewable-powered
production seen as too costly for general takeoff. Most large-scale low-carbon
hydrogen projects in the US have focused on exports in the form of ammonia or
methanol to Asia and Europe, where governments have promised more support to
implement decarbonization mandates. Long-term offtake agreements have so far
lagged as regulatory uncertainty, cost concerns and now the added threat of US
import tariffs muddle demand perspectives. "Demand has certainly ramped up
slower than expected," said LSB chief executive Mark Behrman in an interview
with Argus . "In the conversations that we've had with many offtakers in Asia
and Europe, and even here domestically, there's been a lack of willingness to
commit at the prices that we were able to talk about based on our capital
costs," said Behrman, who also cited uncertainty around tariffs as a
complicating factor. For long-term supply contracts, buyers were seeking prices
below $600/metric tonne fob, said Behrman. LSB partnered with industrial gas
firm Air Liquide, Japanese oil company Inpex and Vopak to build the 1.1mn t/yr
ammonia facility in Texas. Air Liquide would supply the project with low-carbon
hydrogen. The project's costs were largely calculated using 45Q tax credits that
are awarded to companies using CCS to reduce emissions. But the release of 45V
guidelines in January seemed to offer the possibility of accessing the more
lucrative hydrogen production incentive because of a new section pertaining to
cryogenic separation, a process that captures carbon dioxide from industrial gas
streams, said LSB vice-president of clean energy, Jakob Krummenacher, while
speaking at Argus' recent Green Ammonia North America conference in Houston.
Cryogenic separation generates more steam than conventional solvent absorption
and, if that steam is exported to another process, it may lower the carbon
intensity of the resulting hydrogen to such an extent that the project could
potentially qualify for 45V, Krummenacher said. As a result, many of the
assumptions baked into the engineering studies related to the Houston ammonia
venture have to go back to the drawing board. Air Liquide did not respond to
requests for comment. If Air Liquide can avail itself of 45V, capital costs may
decline and result in more competitive offers to the market. But Berhman
cautioned against concluding the project will resume if it is found to qualify
for 45V. "We still need a customer to move forward," Behrman said. Dow, which
planned to build a hydrogen-fueled ethylene cracker at a petrochemical complex
northeast of Edmonton, Alberta, paused its multibillion-dollar project citing
uncertainty around US tariffs and the potential for retaliatory tariffs by US
trading partners. Linde, which announced last year it would invest $2bn to build
a low-carbon hydrogen facility to supply Dow's Path2Zero project, has not
responded to questions about what Dow's pause means for its plans in Alberta.
Linde has said it was working with Dow to them meet their goals while
maintaining Linde's interest in the project. Air Products, meanwhile, further
pushed back its $7bn Louisiana low-carbon hydrogen plant to late 2028 or early
2029 as it seeks to control costs by delegating CCS operations and ammonia
production to partners. There have been some exceptions to the delays. Early
last month, fertilizer producer CF Industries said it was moving ahead on a $4bn
ammonia venture with Japan's Jera and investment firm Mitsui at its Blue Point
complex in Louisiana. LSB similarly said it is forging ahead with plans to
produce low-carbon ammonia at its existing plant in El Dorado, Arkansas, where
it will decarbonize production by adding a CCS facility that will be operated by
Lapis Carbon Solutions. "We're still big believers in global decarbonization,"
Behrman said. "I believe that new demand for power generation, power supply, and
of course, the marine industry will evolve. I just think it's going to take
longer than what everyone initially thought." By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments
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