Viewpoint: Stainless scrap looks to maintain uptrend

Market: Metals
17/07/18

The stainless steel scrap market enters the second half of 2018 supported by positive consumer sentiment and LME nickel price momentum.

Scrap prices for stainless 304 have gained 13.7pc this year, lagging increases in LME nickel prices. Processor buying prices ended the first half at 66-67¢/lb, up from 58-59¢/lb since the beginning of the year.

Stainless 304 prices are expected to remain around these levels or slightly higher as LME nickel prices remain elevated amid falling LME stocks, according to market participants. LME inventories had fallen by 26pc to 272,616/t at the end of June from 366,612/t at the start of the year.

Nickel, a key component in determining nickel-bearing stainless steel scrap prices, accounts for approximately 60pc of the intrinsic value of most austenitic stainless steel scrap grades.

Through the first half of 2018, LME nickel was the best performing base metal, gaining 17.8pc.

Most market participants are optimistic that nickel prices on the LME can hold up in the $14,000-$16,000/t range for the balance of 2018, which would help keep nickel-bearing scrap prices such as 304 and 316 stable or rising upward.

Molybdenum-bearing stainless 316 scrap prices for 2018 could also gain momentum. Stainless 316 prices for scrap solids ended the first half at 93-94¢/lb after starting the year at 78-79¢/lb.

Raw material prices such as molybdenum oxide (Mo 57pc) increased only 2.3pc through the first half while ferro-molybdenum (65pc) had no change. Molybdenum prices are expected to remain at current levels with little variation for the balance of the year. Material tightness and nickel prices will continue to impact molybdenum-bearing scrap prices in 2018.

Consumer demand for stainless steel and specialty alloys is anticipated to increase for the remainder of 2018 as new tax legislation passed in the US late last year injects optimism into manufacturing industries.

LME inventory stocks reached a four-year low amid rising Chinese stainless steel demand, while a growing electric vehicles (EV) sector has also helped support nickel.

Annual nickel demand from the EV market could translate into approximately 200,000 t/yr, or 10pc of world nickel consumption, in the next five years as EV production grows to 15mn units/yr.

The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) expects the global primary nickel market deficit to increase in 2018 despite a rise in primary nickel production.

INSG forecasts a primary nickel market deficit of 117,000t this year, a tick up from 116,000t in 2017 and much wider than 44,000t in 2016.

The group expects global primary nickel production to increase by 7pc to 2.23mn t in 2018 from 2.07mn t a year earlier and 1.99mn t in 2016.

Another key component in pricing stainless steel scrap is chromium. Bellwether 304 stainless contains approximately 18pc chromium. The new European chromium benchmark for the third quarter of 2018 is established at $1.38/lb, which will keep the chromium value for austenitic grades flat for the quarter.

The European benchmark declined only 4¢/lb, a more modest drop than expected. Ferro-chrome supply is dominated by China and South Africa. Demand has fluctuated over the past two years, impacted by chrome supply and the outlook for the stainless steel industry.

Global stainless steel production is expected to grow at about 5pc in 2018, having increased by 5pc to 48mn t in 2017 from 2016, according to the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF).

China is the world's largest stainless steel producer, accounting for 54pc of all production in 2017, according to ISSF. In the Americas, production for stainless steel was 2.75mn t in 2017, down from 2.93mn t the prior year, according to ISSF.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

20/12/24

Viewpoint: Copper volatility, uncertainty ahead in 2025

Houston, 20 December (Argus) — US copper prices are expected to remain volatile in 2025 because of uncertain market conditions, including Chinese demand, electric vehicle (EV) rollouts and falling borrowing costs. Following a two-year downturn prompted by China's economic slowdown in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the next active price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit an all-time record high of $5.106/lb on 21 May 2024. Expectations of increased demand in China, the prospect of looming US interest rate cuts, and projected ramped-up demand for copper in EVs and the green energy sector fueled copper price gains into the mid-year. These expectations proved partly exaggerated, leading copper to fall back to an average of $4.33/lb over the second half of 2024. US copper market participants expect those same factors, albeit to varying degrees, to retain a prominent role in determining prices for 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainties Suppliers and consumers widely expect volatility to persist in the global copper trade as broader macroeconomic factors — chiefly Chinese demand and stimulus, US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions — and delayed US EV ramp-up plans pull the market in diverging directions. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to implement import tariffs have further complicated the picture for US participants, with likely retaliatory tariffs clouding the picture even more. Trade disagreements and tariffs would not only raise costs but also curb demand as the flow of various goods is dented, market sources said. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers on 18 December signaled they are likely to cut the target rate by only 50 basis points next year, paring back their expectations from a prior 100 basis points as inflation remains sticky. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, surged after the Fed announcement to its highest in two years. A strong dollar puts downward pressure on copper prices because it tends to weaken demand from holders of other currencies. Tariffs are also expected to spur inflation and may prompt the Fed to further slow the pace of rate cuts, or even hike rates, effectively lending support to the dollar, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to buy into copper. The US Dollar index, DXY, surpassed 108.2 on 19 December, the highest since November 2022. Goldman Sachs has forecast that the greenback will remain strong in the near-term. Automakers slow EV transition Although the green energy transition — generally covering solar, wind, and EV markets for copper markets — is expected to contribute to US consumption of copper, automakers have signaled their interest in delaying EV deployments. Wind and solar markets are widely expected to remain growth sectors with US projects and installations scheduled to rise next year . Still, the picture for EVs, which could ultimately contribute to copper demand heavily, is murkier. EVs utilize copper in motor coils for engines, and the cabling for charging stations among other components, and each EV requires 183 lbs of copper, nearly four times more than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles. Several automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, have either delayed EV plans or shifted more towards hybrids instead this year. Price outlooks diverge Market participants broadly expect the copper market to slide into a deficit by 2026, chiefly because of growing demand from the renewable sector but until then are split on the direction of prices. The CME next active month price through November averaged $4.24/lb in 2024, up from a $3.86/lb average for the same time period in 2023. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said copper prices will average $4.61/lb for 2025, forecasting upside risk from potential further stimulus while simultaneously seeing downside risk from likely US-China trade tensions. Other financial organizations have forecast copper to range from $3.97-4.99/lb in 2025. Citigroup forecast copper at $3.97/lb, Bank of America dropped its outlook to $4.28/lb while UBS was at $4.76-$4.99/lb. Most copper traders and analysts agree that 2025 will likely be a year of transition for the red metal market, buffeted by ongoing uncertainty. By Mike Hlafka Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise

20/12/24

News

20/12/24

Viewpoint: PGM demand from hydrogen sector to rise

London, 20 December (Argus) — Demand for platinum and iridium from the hydrogen industry will rise in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated because of delays to hydrogen project development. Demand from the hydrogen industry for platinum group metals (PGM) has increased significantly in recent years. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a 123pc increase in demand for platinum from hydrogen applications year on year on 26 November, from a small base. The WPIC anticipates a further 32pc growth in 2025. PEM electrolysers and hydrogen fuel cells both utilise platinum and iridium, opening up a new end-market for some PGMs. Demand from hydrogen applications may offset falling autocatalyst demand from the automotive industry in the long term. Hydrogen industry demand for platinum, iridium and ruthenium will also support demand for palladium, even though palladium is not utilised in hydrogen applications. As demand for platinum from the hydrogen industry increases, palladium will increasingly be substituted for platinum in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, increasing automotive palladium demand and lifting PGM prices overall. More than $300bn in global hydrogen investments are earmarked through to 2030. Many governments seeking to reach their ambitious climate goals are investing in hydrogen, with 61 governments adopting hydrogen strategies as of 2024. "We know that all areas of the world will not shift to hydrogen in the same way as Europe, but we see technology advancing and costs falling, which gives us confidence that the hydrogen economy will be a big driver for platinum and iridium demand in the future," Heraeus Precious Metals Germany head of trading Dominik Sperzel told Argus . According to the WPIC, 11pc of global platinum demand will come from hydrogen application in 2030, totalling 900,000oz. By the late 2030s hydrogen energy production is expected to be the largest end-market for platinum, with 3.5mn oz of demand expected by 2040. "We have seen the hype over the past four to five years. Iridium prices started to increase in 2020 because of supply disruptions and on the demand side, people were excited about new technology announcements and projects entering the pipeline," Sperzel said. Johnson Matthey iridium prices increased by 285pc from the start of 1 June 2020 to 1 June 2021, reaching a peak of $6,300/troy ounce (toz). But they have since fallen by 29pc to $4,450/toz on 12 December as hydrogen demand failed to meet expectations. The development of the hydrogen economy has underperformed in recent years relative to expectations, and expected demand for PGMs has not yet materialised, according to PGM market participants. Many hydrogen projects remain unfinanced, and much of the hype has since abated. There are several challenges inhibiting the development of a widespread hydrogen economy, including the lack of existing infrastructure for hydrogen delivery. Another has been the availability of government subsidies, as significant funds have been earmarked for hydrogen investment but not yet disbursed. "Since 2022 to this year, subsidies available for green hydrogen projects have gone from $50bn to $300bn, but the funds haven't been flowing until early this year. It was only in June that the first of the European subsidies really began to be distributed to support the construction of these facilities. Now that subsidies are beginning to flow, development will accelerate quickly, driving consumer demand for fuel cell electric vehicles," World Platinum Investment Council research director Edward Sterck told Argus . The outlook for hydrogen as an energy source is improving, particularly in Europe and China, as a result of public sector investment and policy focus. The EU in April included over €100mn in grant funding for the construction of hydrogen refuelling stations across seven EU countries, including Poland, in a larger package of €424mn for zero-emission mobility. The EU in May 2024 adopted its hydrogen and gas decarbonisation package, which introduced a regulatory framework for dedicated hydrogen infrastructure. According to the Hydrogen Council, in July 2024 alone, six European hydrogen projects reached final investment decision (FID) status. Investment in hydrogen projects reaching FID globally has increased sevenfold since 2020 from 102 committed projects to 434 in 2024. "We remain positive about the project pipeline and PGM demand. The open question is if the push will happen in the next year, or take longer," Sperzel said. By Maeve Flaherty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US Congress passes waterways bill

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

US Congress passes waterways bill

Houston, 19 December (Argus) — The US Senate has passed a bipartisan waterways infrastructure bill, providing a framework for further investment in the country's waterways system. The waterways bill, also known as the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), was approved by the Senate in a 97-1 vote on 18 December after clearing the US House of Representatives on 10 December. The WRDA's next stop is the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the bill. The WRDA has been passed every two years, authorizing the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to undertake waterways infrastructure and navigation projects. Funding for individual projects must still be approved by Congress. Several agriculture-based groups voiced their support for the bill, saying it will improve transit for agricultural products on US waterways. The bill also shifts the funding of waterways projects to 75pc from the federal government and 25pc from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund instead of the previous 65-35pc split. "Increasing the general fund portion of the cost-share structure will promote much needed investment for inland navigation projects, as well as provide confidence to the industry that much needed maintenance and modernization of our inland waterway system will happen," Fertilizer Institute president Corey Rosenbusch said. The bill includes a provision to assist with the damaged Wilson Lock along the Tennessee River in Alabama. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Q&A: Xcelsior aims to derisk minor metals investment

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

Q&A: Xcelsior aims to derisk minor metals investment

London, 19 December (Argus) — When UK-based Xcelsior Capital started exploring the investment landscape in the mining industry it noticed a significant interest in base metals but a lack of attention toward the lesser-known minor metals. These critical materials are often opaque and complex, leaving investors uncertain about where to start. Argus spoke with chief executive Liam Farley about Xcelsior's partnership with trading firm Wogen, the opportunities and risks associated with its investments, the influence of geopolitics, and Xcelsior's recent involvement in the Hillgrove antimony mine in Australia. What is Xcelsior Capital, and what is its investment model? Xcelsior is primarily a private credit investor that focuses on providing senior secured loans and working capital facilities and prepayments. As a financing partner of a physical commodity trader, Wogen Resources, we aim to establish a long-term sales and distribution agreement or offtake as part of our transactions. We work with mining companies entering production, expanding existing mine operations, or establishing new or existing processing and recycling facilities. We built Excelsior around Wogen's 50-year heritage of being integrated into more than 30 critical metals from upstream, concentrates, intermediate products and finished metals. As a result, we have a solid grasp of the risk-reward on the market side and strong relationships with end-users. This provides a great insight to derisk some of those market and value chain challenges and now allows us to focus on identifying opportunities and the operational risk as a key component. What are the main risks of investing in critical minerals? There is a lot of appetite for financing mineral projects in well-understood markets like gold, copper or iron ore. However, there is a lack of financing and understanding when it comes to critical commodities like antimony or tungsten. Minor metals have multiple end-uses, each with its different market dynamics. You must have a very deep understanding of the commodities themselves, the pricing mechanism, and the material specifications… these supply chains can be opaque. They can be very complex and fast-changing. Being able to navigate them is quite challenging for a lot of more generalist investors. It fundamentally creates a market risk component for critical metals, which can be a barrier. Additionally, many larger mining companies have traditionally avoid these markets because the assets are smaller and may not yield the expected revenue and profits compared with larger copper or iron ore mines. Which metals are on your radar? We are looking very closely at all the major commodities where Wogen has a prominent trading platform, including antimony, tungsten, vanadium, mineral sands, chrome and magnesium. We also are very interested in cobalt, but more on the recycling and processing side. In base metals, we are looking at tin. We focus on those commodities with energy transition links to new demand centres. New demand from sources like solar in small markets can significantly impact overall percentages and returns. For instance, electrification drives substantial demand growth for larger markets like copper, but its impact is smaller than that of markets like antimony. You recently signed an antimony deal with Larvotto Resources in Australia. Could you tell us more about it? We have signed a binding agreement with Larvotto Resources, whose subsidiary owns the brownfield antimony/gold Hillgrove project in New South Wales, Australia. We provided a $4mn loan in return for a seven-year production offtake agreement with Wogen, which will obtain the antimony concentrate from the mine and sell it globally through its customer base. Antimony prices have soared this year in part because of China's export restrictions. Do geopolitics play a significant role in investment decisions? There are large opportunities arising from the dislocation of value chains caused by geopolitics. We're now seeing this almost bifurcation in any material classified as dual-use in China like gallium, germanium and now antimony. This will result in increased volatility. The challenge is that you always want to underwrite projects based on long-term fundamentals, and we still do that. But we see the geopolitical shifts as an upside where we can capture that volatility in our investment strategy rather than rely on it as the sole basis for success. As global trade become more complex, do you see a need for more collaboration across different actors in the value chain? Private-public partnerships in critical metals are an absolute must for the success of western supply chains. One of our big focuses is to work with western groups, including government agencies, to facilitate the reshoring of critical metals and to figure out ways to incentivise new processing downstream. As a standalone investment, they can be challenging. They require very niche capital with great understanding. We are also looking for long-term partnerships with end-users and OEMs to form alliances and secure the supply of materials. There is a big opportunity in this area, but it takes a partnership approach, and that's something that everyone in our industry should prioritise in the next five to 10 years. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EU HRC imports drop a quarter on safeguards, AD probe

19/12/24

News

19/12/24

EU HRC imports drop a quarter on safeguards, AD probe

London, 19 December (Argus) — EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports have dropped by 24pc year on year in October, as a result of the safeguards changes introduced earlier in the year and the anti-dumping (AD) probe on key suppliers launched in August. Volumes amounted to 1.16mn t. The drop was underpinned by sharp declines from Japan, Egypt, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea. Meanwhile, other countries stepped in to fill the supply gap, such as Turkey, Ukraine and Serbia — deemed less risky for buyers, with all ramping up their volumes year on year by 292pc, 69.5pc and 172.8pc, respectively. Turkey was the top supplier with 222,760t in October. Imports from Indonesia also notably increased, by 41.5pc on the year to 29,140t. This volume will be likely to grow over November-March, but the country is expected to no longer be exempt from the safeguard measures from April onwards, market participants said. The European Commission this week launched an early review of the tariff-rate quotas, with changes, including on the developing countries list, to be introduced from April. Import supply is likely to drop further over the rest of the year, and into the first quarter, with January the last month in which residual larger volumes from countries under investigation can be custom cleared. Sales from Japan, Egypt, Vietnam and India, all under the scope of the AD probe , have mostly stopped over the current quarter. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) imports are meanwhile on the rise, with 281,336t clearing in October, up by 33.4pc on the year and 53.5pc on the month. Taiwan was the top supplier with 64,208t, followed by Turkey and India with just over 40,000t each. The increase in Taiwanese imports, which are expected to rise further, have fuelled talks in the market of a potential AD investigation. Similarly, hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) imports rose by 60.1pc on the year to 802,688t, of which 270,226t was from Vietnam, representing a 279.1pc increase year on year. Market participants have expected a probe on Vietnamese HDG for a while, but following the safeguards review launch said that a reduction in quota volumes might hit downstream products such as HDG and CRC in particular. Plate imports have also nudged up, but more modestly, by 6.9pc on the year in October to 222,133t. Rebar and wire rod arrivals were up by 170.6pc and 46.5pc on the year, respectively. By Lora Stoyanova EU HRC imports t Oct-24 ±% Oct-23 Total 1,164,750 -24 Turkey 222,760 292 Japan 164,691 -38.2 Egypt 148,979 -19.7 Vietnam 144,512 -54.7 Taiwan 127,350 -54.5 Ukraine 103,003 69.5 South Korea 90,674 -45.9 Serbia 55,372 172.8 Australia 30,690 -62.4 Indonesia 29,140 41.5 — GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more