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US tariffs may weaken appetite for Chinese asphalt

  • Market: Oil products
  • 21/09/18

The latest US tariff action against $200bn of Chinese goods is poised to hit imports of asphalt next week, increasing the odds of eroding trade flows between China and the US west coast.

While around 300 commodities were eventually spared from the final list released by the US Trade Representative office on Tuesday, petroleum bitumen, residues, natural bitumen and asphalt, and bituminous mixtures are all implicated in the next tranche of import duties to take effect on 24 September. A 10pc tax will be levied through the end of the year and will rise to 25pc starting 1 January.

China already announced it will retaliate with an equivalent tariff on $60bn worth of US goods, including on asphalt, although this will have limited impact on both markets.

Higher import costs are more likely to have ramifications for the China-US west coast arbitrage, which opened up this summer in response to climbing domestic prices. In August, the average price of asphalt shipped by railcar in the US Rocky Mountains hit $390/st fob, its highest level since late 2014. Reduced export availability from western Canada, unexpected refinery maintenance, and high coker utilization rates all strained US Rockies supply, making Chinese imports a welcome alternative.

The most recent cargo, the 36,681dwt Palanca Miami, loaded from China in August for partial deliveries to Barbers Pt, Hawaii, and Portland, Oregon. In late May, the same tanker left Nanjing before partially offloading in Portland, Oregon. The 12,780dwt San Du Ao lifted in Shanghai last month for unloading in Tacoma, Washington, on 3 September before material was trucked south to terminals in Portland.

Recent import tonnage has eased supply tightness in the region. While only a few firms on the US west coast possess infrastructure capable of supporting marine imports, eliminating China's role as a relief valve could spell difficulty for buyers if similar conditions arise next summer.

But traders in the Asia-Pacific market said arbitrage movements seen earlier will end. Vessel relocations in the summer were responsible for cargoes moving from Asia all the way to the US. No new deals have emerged in recent weeks for cargoes to US markets. Freight costs for such routes on vessels with 10,000dwt capacity or above is typically around $100/t.

It is also unclear how much a weakening Chinese yuan against the dollar – itself an effect of the escalating US-China trade war – could offset the impact of the new tariff for US buyers.


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13/11/24

Cop: Six more countries to triple nuclear power by 2050

Cop: Six more countries to triple nuclear power by 2050

Baku, 13 November (Argus) — Six countries have pledged to triple their nuclear power capacity by 2050 at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, as part of an initiative launched at last year's summit in Dubai. El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Turkey today joined 25 countries that had already signed up to the pledge, which was first announced at Cop 28 in Dubai . Turkey has plans to build 20GW of nuclear capacity by mid-century, from no operational plants currently. Kazakhstan's commitment follows a nationwide referendum last month in which the country voted in favour of constructing a nuclear power plant. The US, an original signatory to the pledge, yesterday announced its target to add 200GW of net new nuclear by 2050, from some 97GW now. White House national climate advisor Ali Zaidi told delegates at a Cop 29 side event today that he has "confidence in the durability" of the Biden administration's approach to clean energy action, and does not expect it to pause following Donald Trump's victory in the recent US election. Zaidi pointed in particular to bipartisan consensus on the country's infrastructure law, which includes support for nuclear power, and growing political consensus on the Inflation Reduction Act. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: US election not affecting Canadian policy


12/11/24
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12/11/24

Cop: US election not affecting Canadian policy

Washington, 12 November (Argus) — Canada's government does not intend to alter its plans for cutting the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in response to the return of former president Donald Trump to the White House. The expected shift in US policy following Trump's recent election victory, including the likely repeal of climate-related regulations and exit from the Paris Agreement, will have no effect on Canada's plans, environment minister Steven Guilbeault said during a call with reporters on Tuesday from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. "It's not the first US administration where we have different views on climate change", he said. "That didn't stop us in the past." The Canadian government, led by prime minister Justin Trudeau, has implemented or proposed a number of policies and programs intended to help the country meet its Paris pledge to reduce its emissions by 40-45pc, compared to 2005 levels, by 2030. Canada plans to submit a more-aggressive commitment, known as a nationally determined contribution, to the UN early next year, Guilbeault said. The government last week proposed enacting a cap-and-trade program to reduce GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector, which has drawn sharp criticism from the industry . Guilbeault's comments came in response to a question about remarks made by former finance minister Bill Morneau, who served in Trudeau's government from 2015-2020. During a recent interview with a Canadian news program, Morneau suggested scrapping the oil and gas cap in light of Trump's election. "I respectfully disagree with minister Morneau", Guilbeault said. "The time to fight climate change is now. It's not tomorrow. It's not the day after tomorrow." Speaking to reporters earlier in the day in Baku, Guilbeault declined to comment "on what the new administration will or won't do." While Trump's election may not affect policy north of the border, Canada's Liberal Party could get voted out of power next year. The Conservative Party, which is well ahead in recent election polls, is campaigning on a platform that calls for ending the federal carbon tax and potentially other climate policies. But policies that have industry backing could survive . Canada must hold its next federal election no later than October 2025. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Algerian bitumen importers eye resumed Spain flows


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Algerian bitumen importers eye resumed Spain flows

London, 12 November (Argus) — Algerian bitumen importers are getting ready to resume cargo imports from Spain after the Algerian government signalled last week that trade can restart for the first time in more than two years. The government's decision in June 2022 to suspend a friendship and co-operation treaty with Spain, linked to Madrid's public recognition of Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, led to the immediate cancellation of previously agreed bitumen cargo movements from Spain to Algeria. In a notice issued by the Bank of Algeria on 6 November, Algerian firms were told they could resume trade with their Spanish counterparts under the usual transaction rules, and both state-owned and private Algerian bitumen importers say they are now free to discuss deals to buy and bring Spanish cargoes to their facilities for supply into the domestic market. No such deals are understood to have been concluded yet, but private importers into western Algerian import terminals like Ghazaouet, Oran and Arzew are well placed because of their relative proximity to Spanish export terminals at Tarragona, Huelva and Cadiz compared with existing supply sources in Italy and even more so when compared with cargoes shipped from Greece or Turkey. Ship brokers said freight rates for standard 5,000t bitumen tanker cargo movements from Tarragona — site of a 1.2mn t/yr Asesa bitumen refinery held in a 50-50 joint venture by Repsol and Moeve, formerly Cepsa, — to Ghazaouet are around $35/t, compared with around $50/t for the Augusta, Italy, to Ghazaouet route. Spanish and international bitumen trading and supply firms are still examining the Algerian developments and seeking clearance "on all sides", as one said today, before resuming bitumen cargo discussions with their Algerian counterparts. That could mean the actual restart of Spain-Algeria flows takes until early 2025. Demand for now may be hindered by a pre-winter slowdown in Algerian road construction and bitumen-consuming activity as weather conditions gradually worsen. Algerian state-owned Sonatrach, which imports cargoes into a raft of bitumen terminals along the country's Mediterranean coast, is largely dependent on substantial term flows from Sonatrach Raffineria Italiana's (SRI) 170,000 b/d refinery and export terminal at Augusta, Sicily, and occasionally takes Greek cargoes from Motor Oil Hellas' Agioi Theodoroi refinery and export terminal at Corinth. Sonatrach is less likely than private Algerian buyers to seek Spanish cargoes, on which it had been highly reliant until 2020 before it switched in a big way to Augusta after it bought the refinery there from ExxonMobil in 2018. Algerian market participants said the recent slippage in bitumen cargo prices linked to Mediterranean high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) declines and seasonally weakening bitumen cargo differentials to the regional HSFO cargo prices — coupled with a late season slippage in cross-Mediterranean freight rates over the past few weeks — are all factors conducive to resumed imports from Spain. Spanish fob cargo premiums to Mediterranean HSFO cargoes have dropped from around $10/t in mid-October to $2-3/t last week, while outright prices for Spanish bitumen exports have slipped from $498-499/t fob to $458/t over the same period. By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks


12/11/24
News
12/11/24

Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — Negotiators have a "positive attitude" towards outstanding talks on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement taking place at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, bolstered by the finalisation of crediting mechanism standards yesterday. The adoption of two key Article 6.4 standards on Monday night kicks off remaining talks on a very positive note, Switzerland's lead negotiator on international carbon markets under Article 6, Simon Fellermeyer, said. The approval has set the mood for remaining negotiations, lead Article 6 negotiator for New Zealand Jacqui Ruesga added. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Negotiators have already seen a more constructive attitude to discussions since the failed talks at Cop 28 in Dubai last December, Ruesga said. This was spurred on by disappointment at the lack of outcome last year, and supported by a number of informal meetings organised in the lead-up to June's Bonn climate conference, as well as increasing direction from heads of delegation on the subject. Divergence persists on some issues, but negotiators still have this positive attitude, Ruesga said. Different sides have also begun communicating the reasons behind their positions more clearly, Article 6 negotiator for Colombia Adriana Gutierrez added, which she hopes will help bring a result this year. Outstanding questions include how to deal with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Countries also still disagree on the question of whether Article 6.2's international registry should be capable of holding internationally transferable mitigation outcome (Itmo) units, or simply provide an accounting function. But talks on this point are progressing along the lines of deciding which potential functions of the registry could be integrated or dropped in the view of opposing sides, Ruesga said. The first ever Itmo transfer, which took place between Switzerland and Thailand earlier this year , would have been much easier through such a registry, Fellermeyer said. Gutierrez expects most remaining topics to be concluded ahead of Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil, next year. But some smaller, more technical elements are "bound to stick through" to the next summit, Ruesga said. There is not much appetite to reopen most elements for discussion next year, Fellermeyer said, meaning it could be that they are either concluded in Baku or left in a state of "constructive ambiguity". Agreement in Baku on the remaining Article 6 elements is important to give confidence to potential participants, Fellermeyer said, having encountered parties who declined to cooperate through the mechanism owing to a lack of visibility on the rules. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues


12/11/24
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12/11/24

Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — The adoption of new standards for creating carbon credits under the Paris Agreement on the first day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit yesterday is a key step, but work continues on Article 6. Cop parties agreed yesterday on standards that will cover credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions removals under Article 6.4 of the Paris accord. The new standards set requirements for developing and assessing projects and establish rules covering carbon removal projects. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Cop 29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev said the decision is a critical step towards concluding Article 6 negotiations. "This will be a game-changing tool to direct resources to the developing world and help us save up to $250bn/yr when implementing our climate plans," Rafiyev reiterated. "[The] centralised UN mechanism for markets looks at the projects that are not financially feasible currently and how it can help in providing some stream of revenue," chair for the supervisory body Maria al-Jishi said. UN climate body UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell said that yesterday's breakthrough was a good start but pointed out that this was "the product of over 10 years of work within the process" and that more work remains to be done. Cop parties must reach a deal on other aspects of implementing 6.4 and 6.2, which together govern how countries can use carbon credits to meet their GHG emissions-reduction pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Remaining issues include the nature of credit registries, the guidance for inclusion of removals and a solution for dealing with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Overlapping articles 6.4 and 6.2 elements are still under discussion and will require a decision at Cop 29, including on how governments and host parties choose to interact with 6.4 on credit authorisation and how national credit registries can interact with the 6.4 registry, al-Jishi said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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