Viewpoint: Washington state to shift focus to LCFS

Washington state lawmakers plan to turn their attention to passing a clean fuel standard to address climate change, after failing to win public support for an economy-wide price on carbon.

Governor Jay Inslee (D) and key Democratic state lawmakers have set an ambitious climate policy agenda for next year's legislative session, which includes legislation for a low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) that would target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector.

If successful, they would fill in the last piece of a west coast puzzle. British Columbia, California and Oregon all use LCFS programs to increase the use of less carbon-intensive fuels in cars and trucks.

A carbon tax bill came up short in the Legislature this year. Then voters rejected a carbon tax ballot initiative in November, the second time since 2016 that an effort to put a price on emissions failed at the ballot. The defeats have left Washington state lawmakers looking for another opportunity to adopt policies in response to climate change.

Inslee had backed the carbon tax legislation, but in doing so may have diverted time and attention from other issues, notably an LCFS bill from state representative Joe Fitzgibbon (D).

The governor has already re-calibrated his climate policy ambitions, embracing a sector-by-sector approach to reducing GHG emissions.

Fitzgibbon, chair of the state House Environment Committee, has committed to passing an LCFS next year and will likely run with Inslee's proposal, which would a require a 10pc reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2028 and 20pc by 2035.

The governor's office forecast that the policy would achieve emission reductions of approximately 1.7mn metric tonnes/yr by 2035. Washington's emissions must total 66mn t by that year in order to achieve a goal of cutting GHGs 25pc below 1990 levels.

The state won't reach that target without weaning drivers off gasoline and diesel. The transportation sector accounts for nearly half of all emissions there. Inslee's standard, which is likely to not cover aviation or shipping, proposes to cover fuel responsible for about 30pc of the state's overall emissions.

The odds of passage look better after the recent election, when Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers of the Legislature. The party enjoys a seven-vote margin in the state Senate and 16-vote lead in the state House.

Fitzgibbon will also have more time to secure votes in the Legislature, which alternates between long and short sessions. The 2019 season for lawmakers will run nearly four months, roughly two more than were available this year.

If state lawmakers falter, other actors may step up.

The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency plans to complete an analysis in the coming months of transportation fuel produced and imported to its territory, with an eye toward developing a regional clean fuel standard later in 2019. The agency covers King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties, which comprise over half the state's population.

Whatever the approach, proponents of a clean fuel standard in Washington can draw from other jurisdictions, particularly California, to bolster their case.

California's LCFS, in place since 2011, has led to rapid growth in alternative fuels like renewable diesel, biomethane and electricity. The state's economy — the fifth largest in the world — has continued to hum.

Regulators at the state Air Resources Board approved a doubling of the program's carbon intensity target earlier this year — to 20pc by 2030, up from 10pc.

Inslee, a potential presidential candidate in 2020, wants a legislative victory to bolster his climate credentials. He has no doubt eyed California, a state that has managed to set ambitious renewables goals and lead on electric vehicles, with some envy. His own call for a 100pc clean electricity mandate may get more attention in 2019, but with transportation emissions on the rise, an LCFS might make the bigger statement.