France tries to mediate between US, Iran
Trump's initial beliefs that Iran would negotiate a deal have not been realised, with Tehran rejecting all his advances
French president Emmanuel Macron is stepping up efforts to prevent a further escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran. But US actions and Iran's response to them undercut potential mediation and continue to pose a threat to an unhindered flow of oil from the Middle East.
Macron will host Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on 23 August, just ahead of the G7 summit in Biarritz, France. Paris and Tehran are working on a mechanism to ensure that "Europe starts complying with obligations they undertook under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] and their commitments since the US withdrew from the JCPOA", Zarif says.
Iran says it can resume full compliance with restrictions on its nuclear programme if the JCPOA's European participants guarantee its ability to export oil despite US sanctions. An EU-backed alternative payment system has failed to address Tehran's concerns, so Macron is trying a different approach. Paris will work to soften the sanctions or provide a "compensation mechanism" to address Iran's humanitarian needs, Macron says. Tehran, in return, expresses willingness to discuss longer limits on its nuclear programme than those in the JCPOA.
Washington's participation is key to the success of the EU-Iran discussions. But it shows no signs of easing its sanctions policy. The US hopes its policy of maximum pressure and the ban on all crude exports from Iran, which came into effect in early May, will force Tehran to negotiate a new deal on US terms. Nominally, US officials do not rule out negotiations, even though the preconditions they have in place are viewed in Tehran as tantamount to regime change.
US president Donald Trump appears to concede that his advisers' calculations may not work. "They very much want to make a deal," he says. "They just do not know how to call because they are proud people, and I understand that." He encourages Iran to reach out, although previous mediation efforts have failed, in part because of Trump's preference for personal diplomacy similar to his engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Iran is "given mixed signals from all of those purporting to represent us", including from Macron, Trump says.
Iran's leaders have rejected all overtures from Trump. Tehran is not ruling out direct talks with the US, Zarif says, but only if Washington lifts sanctions imposed under Trump. Zarif was invited to meet Trump last month, but turned down the offer. US officials have since placed Zarif on the sanctions list, saying he is not a "significant decision-maker". The State Department's Iran envoy, Brian Hook, suggests that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could delegate a member of the country's supreme national security council on a diplomatic mission.
Trump, despite expressing a willingness to negotiate with Tehran, says the US sanctions effort is effective. "They are not selling oil. It is like a trickle," he says. Just how much oil Iran is selling is still an open question, even for the US administration. Iran exported 100,000 b/d in June-July, Hook says. The number is between zero and 500,000 b/d, according to US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
Grace under pressure
A forfeiture complaint by the US Department of Justice, which unsuccessfully sought to keep the Iranian at Gibraltar, shows Tehran's continued ability to evade the sanctions regime through the use of shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers and financial intermediaries in the UAE, and even the US.
Washington has not given up on attempts to detain Grace 1, which has been renamed Adrian Darya 1 and left the port of Gibraltar on 18 August. "We are tracking the movement of that boat," Hook says. The US is calling on Mediterranean port authorities to deny docking privileges for Iranian tankers.
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Opec+, Saudis have no target oil price: sources
Opec+, Saudis have no target oil price: sources
Dubai, 26 September (Argus) — Neither Saudi Arabia nor the wider Opec+ group have any specific target for oil prices, and no member of the producers' alliance is about to abandon output discipline in favour of chasing market share, multiple Opec+ sources have told Argus . Oil prices fell earlier on Thursday following unconfirmed press reports that Saudi Arabia may be willing to tolerate lower oil prices as part of a plan to increase crude output to regain market share. Sources within Opec+ have since dismissed those assertions outright, insisting that the basis for the group's collective decision-making will always be market fundamentals, and in particular the five-year average of crude inventories, rather than targeting any particular oil price. "Neither Opec+, Opec nor the Saudis have any price target, let alone $100/bl," one source said, in response to a Financial Times report that stated Saudi Arabia is ready to "abandon its unofficial price target of $100/bl". A second source said the $100/bl figure being reported is not a target but is more likely to refer to a recent estimate issued by banks and other financial institutions of Saudi Arabia's "so-called break-even oil price" — that is, the price the kingdom needs to cover its spending plans. In April, the IMF estimated Saudi Arabia's breakeven oil price at $96.20 for 2024, almost 20pc above the previous year and around a third higher than current Ice Brent futures. "The breakeven is, at best, indicative, but does not tell the full story," the source said. Focusing on it "is totally devoid of the idea that a government has a host of other tools to manage an economy — issuing bonds, borrowing, adjusting one's budget". Eight Opec+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, were due to begin a phased return of around 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" output cuts from the start of next month. But mounting concerns over the strength of the global economy, and in turn oil demand, prompted the group to defer the plan by two months to December. With worries around oil demand not going away, and the market looking likely to flip into a surplus from the start of next year, some observers are questioning whether there will be any need for an increase in Opec+ supply from December. And if the eight members go ahead with unwinding the cuts regardless, whether that would signal a shift in the group's focus to chasing market share. But a third source rejected that view, as the group would "only be reversing what we have cut". "As a group, we have said time and time again that these cuts were both voluntary and temporary, and always stressed that they could be paused or reversed," the source said. "And earlier this month, that's exactly what we did with the two-month deferral to December." December or bust? The rationale to delay the increase in production to December was twofold, according to Opec+ sources. It not only reflected the uncertainty around the global economy, the US and Chinese economies, interest rates and demand. But more importantly, the decision was made to allow Opec+ members that have overproduced this year ꟷ namely Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia ꟷ more time to show they are serious about compensating for exceeding their output targets. "There is so much uncertainty today which we, as Opec+, have no control over," one of the sources said. "But what we do control is our own affairs." Iraq and Kazakhstan have been under intense pressure in recent months to not only adhere to their pledged targets, but also compensate for past overproduction. While Kazakhstan did manage to produce below its target in August, Iraq continued to struggle. All eyes will be on how these countries do in September. "The overproduction is impacting our credibility, and we need to tackle that. Discipline is paramount," the source said. Reports that Saudi Arabia is committed to start unwinding cuts from December, come what may, are wide of the mark for several reasons, another source said. "First, this is not a decision for Saudi Arabia to make. It is for all eight to decide," he said. The group also still has several weeks before it has to decide whether to proceed with the plan, or defer again, the source added. A decision is due in the first week of November, by which time the group should have better visibility on market fundamentals and Iraqi and Kazakh compensation efforts. "How could we make a decision now when we don't even have September production figures?" the source said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
New York, 25 September (Argus) — Hurricane Helene, which is forecast to intensify as it heads for a late Thursday landfall in Florida, has shut in about 29pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output. Around 511,000 b/d of US offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 313mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 17pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators have so far evacuated workers from 17 offshore platforms. Helene was last about 110 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Helene is expected to be a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111mph, when it reaches the eastern Florida coast on Thursday evening. "A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening," the center said. Shell restarting some production Although the hurricane will largely pass to the east of most offshore oil and gas production areas, companies have taken precautionary measures. Given a shift in the forecast track, Shell said late Tuesday that it had started to ramp up production at the Appomattox platform to normal levels, and was in the process of restoring output at the Stones facility, both off the coast of Louisiana. It paused some drilling operations. Chevron said earlier it was shutting in production at company-operated facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and evacuating all workers. Equinor said it was shutting down the Titan oil platform. BP had earlier this week started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms, southeast of New Orleans, and was curtailing output from its Argos and Atlantis facilities, as well as removing non-essential staff. US offshore production was disrupted earlier this month when Hurricane Francine made landfall, with up to 42pc of production was offline at one point. The offshore Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vertex Energy files for bankruptcy, seeks sale
Vertex Energy files for bankruptcy, seeks sale
Houston, 25 September (Argus) — Specialty refiner Vertex Energy has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in a US court following a failed foray into renewable fuels production at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, refinery. Vertex has entered into a restructuring support agreement with its lenders and secured $80mn of new funding to finance its day-to-day business operations, the company said late Tuesday. The refiner is also considering a "more value-maximizing sale transaction" and expects to confirm its chapter 11 bankruptcy plan by the end of the year, according to the 24 September press release. Vertex announced in May this year that it would "pause" renewable diesel production at its Alabama refinery and return the unit to producing fossil fuel products. The company later said it would use a third quarter turnaround to return the Alabama plant's converted hydrocracking unit to processing fossil fuel feedstocks and be back online in the fourth quarter. Vertex also operates a re-refinery near New Orleans, Louisiana, that produces low-sulfur vacuum gas oil (VGO) and multiple used motor oil (UMO) processing plants and collection facilities along the Gulf coast. Refiners have faced mixed fortunes in recent years with their investments in renewable fuels after a glut of new supply flooded markets and depressed renewable credit prices. US independent refiner Delek announced in August that it is temporarily idling three biodiesel plants in Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi as it explores alternative uses for the sites. Chevron said earlier this year it was indefinitely closing two biodiesel plants in Wisconsin and Iowa due to market conditions. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Helene shuts in about 16pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2
Helene shuts in about 16pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2
Adds daily spot market crude pricing information. New York, 24 September (Argus) — Tropical storm Helene, which is expected to develop into a hurricane on Wednesday before coming ashore in Florida Thursday, has shut in about 16pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output. Around 284,000 b/d of US offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 208mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 11pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators have so far evacuated workers from four offshore production platforms. Helene was last about 175 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The current forecast has the center of Helene entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning and moving north-northeast toward a possible landfall near the Florida panhandle region late Thursday. By then it will have strengthened into a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111mph, according to forecasts. While the storm will largely pass to the east of most offshore oil and gas production areas, companies started suspended some operations on Sunday. Chevron began evacuating workers and shutting in its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms. "While we are also transporting nonessential personnel from our four other Chevron-operated Gulf of Mexico platforms, production there remains at normal levels," the company said. Shell said Monday it had shut in output from its Stones facility and curtailed production from the Appomattox platform, both off the coast of Louisiana. The company was also relocating non-essential workers from its assets in the Mars corridor, and suspending some drilling operations. Equinor said it was shutting down the Titan oil platform as a precaution. BP had started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms, southeast of New Orleans, and was curtailing output from its Argos and Atlantis facilities, as well as removing non-essential staff. Offshore spot prices rise slightly The Na Kika platform is connected by pipeline to the Shell-operated Delta pipeline system, which carries Heavy Louisiana Sweet (HLS) crude to shore. During trading on Tuesday, October HLS rose by 20¢/bl relative to the light sweet crude benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, to an 80¢/bl discount. The October US pipeline trade month ends Wednesday. The Thunder Horse platform production is marketed as part of a sour crude stream by the same name that is priced at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Pipeline's (LOOP) facility in Clovelly, Louisiana, where it has dedicated underground cavern storage, as does Mars. On Tuesday, Thunder Horse traded at a 50¢/bl discount to the Cushing benchmark, after wide discussion circled a 40¢/bl discount in the prior session. Medium sour secondary benchmark Mars tightened its gap to the Cushing basis by 30¢/bl to a volume-weighted average discount of roughly $1.55/bl. Crude production from the 140,000 b/d capacity Argos platform feeds into the Cameron Highway Oil Pipeline System (CHOPS), which carries Southern Green Canyon (SGC) crude to the Texas Gulf coast. Argos platform serves the Mad Dog 2 field development that came online last year. Atlantis production also feeds into SGC. No SGC transactions were reported on Tuesday. It was offered as low as $1/bl under the Cushing benchmark, lower than trade at a 50¢/bl discount in the prior session. US offshore production was disrupted earlier this month when Hurricane Francine made landfall as a category 1 storm. Up to 42pc of production was offline at one point. The offshore Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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