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US, China reach deal to remove tariffs: Beijing

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 13/12/19

The US and China have reached an interim trade agreement that includes the removal of tariffs imposed by Washington, the Chinese government said today.

The interim deal includes commitments by Beijing to purchase more US agricultural products and open China's financial services sector to competition, in exchange for a phased rollback in US tariffs, according to Chinese deputy commerce minister Wang Shouwen.

The US administration has yet to confirm the details, although President Donald Trump said yesterday the parties are close to finalizing the deal. Trump tweeted today ahead of the Chinese government announcement that reports of a rollback in tariffs were incorrect.

The trade war between the world's largest two economies has remained a drag on oil demand outlook, and uncertain prospects of resolving it have added volatility to crude futures markets in recent months. Nymex January light sweet crude futures increased by 42¢/bl to $59.18/bl yesterday on news of progress on an interim deal on trade.

Tariffs in place affect more than two thirds of US imports from China, with retaliatory measures imposed by Beijing affecting nearly similar volume of China's imports from the US.

The US administration has indicated previously it was ready to delay the next scheduled round of tariffs on 15 December, covering an additional 30pc of the volume of US imports from China.

The 15 December round of tariffs would have had the strongest direct effect on US consumers, as it would affect items for which China accounts for more than 75pc of US imports. The US Trade Representative's office said previously it would work to prevent negative effects on US consumers of those tariffs.

Delaying the December round of tariffs on imports from China would be the equivalent of a 0.2 percentage point boost to global GDP growth, based on analysis by IMF economists earlier this year.

By Haik Gugarats


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08/05/25

HSFO defies the green tide

HSFO defies the green tide

New York, 8 May (Argus) — High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization. The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use. Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO. In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months. Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend. While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight. By Stefka Wechsler Selected ports marine fuel demand t % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 Singapore HSFO 1.0% 33,160.0 4,898,372.0 4,865,212.0 VLSFO/ULSFO -13.0% -1,005,951.0 6,829,667.0 7,835,618.0 MGO/MDO -5.0% -49,012.0 907,874.0 956,886.0 biofuel blends 187.0% 237,552.0 364,418.0 126,866.0 LNG 34.0% 25,935.0 101,856.0 75,921.0 Rotterdam HSFO 1.0% 11,169.0 829,197.0 818,028.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 14.0% 118,670.0 976,249.0 857,579.0 MGO/MDO 3.0% 9,662.0 393,071.0 383,409.0 biofuel blends -60.0% -158,597.0 104,037.0 262,634.0 LNG 7.0% 7.0 104.0 97.0 Panama HSFO 22.0% 65,266.0 362,388.0 297,122.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 25.0% 177,296.0 878,776.0 701,480.0 MGO/MDO 22.0% 27,097.0 150,980.0 123,883.0 — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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FinBalt gas demand down on the year in April


08/05/25
News
08/05/25

FinBalt gas demand down on the year in April

London, 8 May (Argus) — Combined gas demand across the Finnish and Baltic region fell by 4pc on the year in April despite gas-fired power generation rising by nearly 50pc. Aggregate consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in April fell to 3.42TWh, down from 3.56TWh the previous year and the three-year average of 5.12TWh in 2019-21. That said, it was still higher than in both 2022 and 2023 ( see consumption graph ). Lithuania remained the region's largest consumer, as it has been for every month since June, again driven by an increase in gas-fired power generation. Average gas-fired output soared by nearly 400pc on the year in April to 254MW according to data from Fraunhofer ISE, more than making up for a 43pc drop in Finnish production ( see power table ). Following the de-synchronisation of the Baltic states from the post-Soviet Brell system, gas-fired power plants have become particularly important in the region, not just for producing electricity but also for providing ancillary services such as frequency reserves. Lithuania has the largest gas-fired fleet in the region, and its output jumped despite domestic power consumption falling by more than 5pc on the year and renewable output increasing, which allowed the country to cut its power imports last month to 104MW, from 546MW in the previous year. With power sector gas demand increasing in April but overall gas consumption in the region dropping, demand from households and industries must have been lower on the year. Weather patterns were split across the region, with lower average minimum temperatures than the previous year in Vilnius and Riga, but higher in Tallinn and Helsinki. That said, overnight lows in all four capitals were still above the 2015-24 average last month, limiting strong heating demand in the shoulder month ( see temperature table ). Traded volumes on the region's gas exchange GET Baltic rose to 1.1TWh last month, an "unusually high result for this time of year" according to the exchange's senior account manager Karolis Bagdonas. Of the overall volume, 56pc traded in Lithuania, 28pc in the joint Estonia-Latvia market area, and the remaining 16pc in Finland. The average price on GET Baltic was €39.40/MWh last month, down by around 8pc from March. GET Baltic announced in April that its full integration into the European Energy Exchange (EEX) had been delayed again until 9 September , having previously been planned for 27 May . Across all of January-April FinBalt consumption totalled 18.43TWh, down from 20.04TWh in the same period of 2024. Stocks at the region's only storage facility in Latvia ended the storage year on 1 May at 8.4TWh, below 11.3TWh on the same day last year and 9TWh in 2023, but still above all other years since 2018 ( see data and download ). The entire 100pc of capacity, amounting to just over 23TWh, had been booked for the 2024-25 storage year, but for the new 2025-26 cycle a lower 17TWh has been allocated, representing around 68pc of the cycle's total technical capacity of 24.9TWh. Consistently positive summer-winter spreads over the winter period, which gave no financial incentive to book storage, may have driven lower interest in 2025-26 capacity, although they had normalised by April. Lower overall booked volumes is despite operator Conexus managing to sell all 9TWh of the new five-year capacity product it offered in February and March . Slow start to injection season Injections into Incukalns have been weak so far this year, with not a single day of net injections until 24 April. In the previous year, there had been some brief net injections on 1-4 April at an average of 54 GWh/d, and across all of April they averaged just over 7 GWh/d. In contrast, this year's April averaged net withdrawals of 32 GWh/d across the month, with injections only on 24-30 April. This slow stockbuild has continued in the first week of May, with 35GWh of net injections on 1 May but then a flip back to very minor net withdrawals of 0.2 GWh/d on every day of 2-6 May, the latest data from GIE show. Last year, there were average net injections of 47 GWh/d on 1-6 May, and 39 GWh/d in 2021-23. Despite weak injections, overall LNG sendout across the region's three terminals of Klaipeda, Inkoo and Hamina has increased significantly from April, nearly doubling to 150 GWh/d on 1-7 May from 80 GWh/d in April. Sendout from these terminals averaged 84 GWh/d on 1-7 May last year. Rather than injecting all of the regasified LNG, some of it is being sent southward to Poland at Santaka, with exit flows at the point averaging 22 GWh/d on 1-7 May, switched from net inflows of 2 GWh/d in April. This is likely to be linked to Polish incumbent Orlen's deals to supply LNG to Ukraine's Naftogaz, of which one of the contracts specified that it would be delivered to Klaipeda and transited to the Ukrainian border . By Brendan A'Hearn FinBalt gas-fired power production MW Apr-25 Apr-24 year-on-year % change Finland 118 206 -43 Estonia 6 5 20 Latvia 85 53 60 Lithuania 254 52 388 Total 463 316 47 — Fraunhofer ISE FinBalt average minimum temps °C Apr-25 Apr-24 2015-24 avg Helsinki 0.7 0.1 0.1 Talinn 2.2 2.0 1.0 Riga 4.8 5.0 4.0 Vilnius 3.8 5.2 2.8 — Speedwell FinBalt gas demand by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK


08/05/25
News
08/05/25

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May


08/05/25
News
08/05/25

Sonatrach Augusta refinery restart extends into May

Barcelona, 8 May (Argus) — Crude deliveries to Algerian state-owned Sonatrach's 198,000 b/d Augusta refinery in Italy were higher in April, but it appears a full restart from planned works will take longer than initially expected. Crude deliveries last month were around 70,000 b/d, up from 20,000 b/d in March. Receipts averaged 95,000 b/d in January-April, down from 160,000 b/d overall in 2024. The refinery has been under a planned five-year maintenance shutdown since the end of January, the first turnaround since shortly after Sonatrach bought the plant from ExxonMobil in 2019. Sonatrach initially said the facility would be back online by 30 April, with units restarting in two phases. But the company in an updated note to local authorities said an atmospheric distillation unit, propane deasphalter, hydro-desulphuriser, propane splitter and other secondary units would potentially flare on restart up to 31 May. One of these segments is the butamer unit, which caught fire in April . It is unclear if the fire added to the length of the overall stoppage. Sonatrach has not replied to queries on the matter. It was anticipated the turnaround would be a little quicker than in 2019 (see chart), but the two periods of maintenance now appear to be roughly similar. Crude delivery last month included over 45,000 b/d of Saudi Arab Light, 15,000 b/d of Kazakh Kebco and over 5,000 b/d of Algerian Saharan Blend. Argus assessed these at a weighted average gravity of 33.7°API and 1.5pc sulphur content, compared with 36.5°API and 0.9pc sulphur in February, before receipts all but stopped for the works. Receipts averaged 34.7°API and 1.2pc sulphur in January-April, compared with 35.2°API and 0.9pc sulphur overall in 2024. The pace of delivery in May is slow. Around 750,000 bl of Arab Light has discharged but no tankers are signalling arrival. By Adam Porter Augusta crude receipts mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia


07/05/25
News
07/05/25

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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