Viewpoint: More Illinois basin contraction expected

Market: Coal
26/12/19

Illinois basin coal mine closures are likely to continue in 2020 as producers adjust to recent demand cuts.

Producers in the region already have removed more than 10mn short tons/yr (9.1mn metric tonnes/yr) of capacity through a series of mine closings this year.

Most of the cuts became effective late in the year. Production for the first three quarters of 2019 totaled 78.6mn st, just 1.1mn st below 2018 levels, according to US Mine Safety and Health Administration data. After incorporating estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for October through mid-December, the basin is on track to have just over 100mn st of output this year compared with 106.8mn st in 2018.

The mine closings announced in the second half of the year have the potential to bring Illinois basin production below 100mn st in 2020. But those cuts are not enough to account for recent drops in both international and domestic demand.

One producer said another 7mn-10mn st of output could be taken off line in 2020 and that cuts should focus on mines that primarily target export markets.

Bituminous thermal coal exports out of New Orleans — the primary exit-point for Illinois basin coal – totaled 8.9mn st from January-October, down from 16.2mn st a year earlier, US Census Bureau data show. This includes exports from other basins.

Mines in Illinois, Indiana and western Kentucky – the Illinois basin footprint – exported 17.6mn st in all of 2018, according to EIA data.

Market conditions remain less hospitable for Illinois basin exports than they had been in 2018. Prompt two-month shipments of 11,300 Btu/lb typical 3pc sulfur coal fell to $37.50/t fob New Orleans in the week ended on 20 December and averaged $43.24/t in 2019, compared with an average of $62.91/t in 2018. Illinois basin producers typically need seaborne prices to be closer to $50/t to make a profit shipping to international customers.

Any further mine closures would bring production closer to domestic demand. Basin mines delivered 56.6mn st of coal to utility-scale power plants in the US in the first nine months of this year, EIA fuel receipts data show. Mines shipped 84.8mn st to US customers in 2018, down from 88mn st in 2017.

Of the three states in the basin, Illinois is the largest producer, but could be sheltered from the cuts, Illinois Coal Association president Phil Gonet said.

The state produced 49.5mn st in 2018 and exported 12.5mn st.

Gonet said 56pc of production in Illinois is at longwall mines, which "will probably be the last to shut down because they are the lowest cost and most productive."

That could push more of the cuts to mines in Indiana and Kentucky. Recent closures reflect that.

So far this year, only two Illinois mine closings have been announced. Peabody Energy closed the Wildcat Hills-Cottage Grove pit early in the year and plans to close its other Wildcat Hills mine by the end of this month. Those two mines produced 1.7mn st in 2018, MSHA data show.

Peabody also closed the Somerville mine in Indiana in October. That operation, and White Stallion's Liberty mine in Indiana, which was shut in April, produced 3.8mn st of coal in 2018.

Elsewhere in Indiana, Alliance Resource Partners will close its Gibson North mine in January.

Producers have shut down 4.9mn st of production in Kentucky so far this year, including Alliance's Dotiki mine in August, Rhino Resource Partner's Riveredge mine in September and Murray Energy's Paradise No. 9 mine in February.

Murray today said it was shutting its Genesis mine in Kentucky by early March. The mine produced 2.4mn st of coal in 2018, MSHA data shows.

Producers also have seen their US customer bases shrink in recent years, as coal plants across the country have shut in the face of increased competition from natural gas and renewables.

About 17GW of coal-fired generation has retired, or was scheduled to be retired, in the US this year, according to Argus data. The largest retirements included FirstEnergy's 2.7GW Bruce Mansfield power plant in Pennsylvania and Salt River Project's 2.3GW Navajo generating station in Arizona.

That contraction is certain to continue. Another 7GW of coal-fired generation is expected to shut in 2020, including Tennessee Valley Authority's 1.2GW Paradise plant in Kentucky.

Cuts in coal production will be driven by "utilities switching to natural gas, where we expect prices will remain low, and renewable energy, which still benefit from government subsidies," Moody's senior credit officer Benjamin Nelson said.

Analysts at international think-tank the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which typically supports the advancement of renewable generation, expect in the next 20 years that "virtually all of the US coal-fired plants that currently buy the (Illinois basin's) coal will be either retired or little used."

By Jim Foster

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

02/05/25

Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

India extends directive to lift coal-fired generation

Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — India's power ministry has extended its directive requiring imported coal-fired utilities to boost generation by two months until 30 June, a move that could support demand for seaborne coal over the peak summer period. The directive covers imported coal-fired plants with a combined capacity of 17.5GW and was previously set to expire on 30 April. The decision could support India's coal imports, which have remained lacklustre so far in 2025. India imported 38.29mn t of thermal coal in January-March, down from 41.87mn t a year earlier, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. Imports may have remained under pressure in April, with India's seaborne thermal coal receipts estimated at 15.77mn t for the month, down from 15.84mn t a year earlier, according to trade analytics platform Kpler. India's coal-fired generation remained above the historical average in April in line with the uptick in power demand, although actual coal burn was down on the month and year. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — stood at 113.48 TWh in April, down from 116.58 TWh a year earlier and 117.95 TWh a month earlier, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The extension of the order appears to be a pre-emptive measure by the authorities to ensure imported coal-fired utilities are well stocked to meet any uptick in power demand. The country is currently sitting on a surplus of domestic coal, with elevated inventory at its utilities. Delhi has been proactively directing utilities to boost output since mid-2022 to cater for seasonal surges in power demand. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at 56.69mn t as of 30 April, up from 47.92mn t a year earlier, but down from 58.11mn t as of 31 March, CEA data show. Inventories at state-controlled Coal India (CIL) also remained high, according to market participants. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April

01/05/25

News

01/05/25

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity contracted in April for a second month, as output and new orders slowed on tariff policy uncertainty, while price gains accelerated. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April, down from 49 in March and the lowest since last November. The threshold between contraction and expansion is 50. The two-month contraction in manufacturing activity follows a two-month expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction. ISM's services PMI, a separate report that tracks the biggest part of the economy, showed nine months of expansion through March. "Demand and production retreated and de-staffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to an unknown economic environment," ISM said Thursday. "Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new-order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." The manufacturing data follows a report Wednesday that showed the US economy contracted at an annualized 0.3pc pace in the first quarter as businesses boosted imports and stocked up on goods ahead of US import tariffs. The ISM's new-orders index came in at 47.2, higher than 45.2 in March but showing contraction for a third month. The production index fell to 44, showing a deepening contraction from 48.3 in the prior month. Employment rose by 1.8 points to 46.5, showing a slowing contraction. New export orders contracted faster at 43.1 in April, while imports entered contraction at 47.1 after barely growing, at 50.1, the prior month. The prices index rose to 69.8, up from 69.4 the prior month and signaling quickening expansion. The inventories index fell by 2.6 points to 50.8, marking a second month of expansion after six months of contraction. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding

01/05/25

News

01/05/25

Indonesia's coal power phase-out hinges on funding

Manila, 1 May (Argus) — Indonesia's accelerated coal-fired power phase-out plan hinges on private-sector and international partners financial support, the country's energy ministry said, after issuing further guidance last month. Indonesian energy ministry ESDM published a ministerial regulation in early April outlining the criteria and processes for the early retirement of coal-fired power plants. But the plan will not be carried out if there is no clarity over funding for its energy transition efforts, in which case Jakarta will continue to prioritise domestic energy production, including through fossil-based sources, ESDM said this week. The Indonesian government will not use its state budget or funds from state-owned utility PLN to fund the early retirement of coal-fired plants, ESDM said. The new regulation details the evaluation processes for retiring coal-fired plants early, and emphasises the need for financial support from private-sector or international partners to achieve an accelerated phase out. Policy makers will evaluate the impact of a plant's retirement on the country's electricity grid, power supply and electricity tariffs, among other factors, when considering its phase out, ESDM said. It will also take into account aspects of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) climate financing pact signed with rich nations in 2022, such as the livelihood of employees affected by the phase-out, as well as a plant's capacity, age, utilisation, greenhouse gas emissions and economic value. The availability of foreign and domestic technological support will also be considered; according to ESDM. US president Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the JETP raised concerns earlier this year on whether Indonesia could stick to its energy transition policies, but the country recently secured $60mn in JETP funding to develop a solar project . State-owned utility PLN will be tasked with studying the technical, legal, commercial and financial aspects of decommissioning plants that are put forward for early retirement, including funding sources. It will have to submit a report to the ministry no later than six months from the date a plant is identified for decommissioning, ESDM said. The share of renewables in Indonesia's power mix is expected to rise to around 21pc by 2030 and 41pc by 2040, according to think-tank Ember. By Antonio delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

India’s TSPL starts up torrefied bio-pellet plant

29/04/25

News

29/04/25

India’s TSPL starts up torrefied bio-pellet plant

Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — India's private sector utility Talwandi Sabo Power (TSPL) has set up a torrefied bio-pellet manufacturing facility in the northern state of Punjab, to ensure steady biomass supply to its 1.98GW coal-fired plant. The pellet plant has a capacity of 500 t/d or 182,500 t/yr of torrefied bio-pellets, and use agricultural stubble or residue as feedstock, according to TSPL, a unit of mining conglomerate Vedanta. The Punjab region generates around 15-20mn t/yr of crop stubble, according to TSPL. The plant had already purchased over 800,000t of agricultural stubble, which it will convert to around 640,000t of torrefied bio-pellets. The utility is also targeting to reduce "5pc use of coal daily" by replacing the fuel with torrefied bio-pellets. TSPL also co-fires 450 t/d of torrefied biomass that is purchased from other suppliers in the open market. The utility typically seeks torrefied pellets made from agricultural residue with a minimum of 50pc raw material from stubble, straw, or crop residue from rice paddy. The gross calorific value of pellets procured for its plant usually ranges between GAR 3,400-5,000 kcal/kg. Vedanta's aluminium unit had also used biomass briquettes for power generation. Its alumina refinery in Lanjigarh, Odisha consumes about 20 t/d of biomass briquettes, according to Vedanta. The briquettes are made from agricultural residue sourced from farmers in India. By Nadhir Mokhtar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more