EU could impose duties on Turkish HRC in December

Market: Metals
14/05/20

Provisional duties on Turkish hot-rolled coil (HRC) could be implemented by 15 December, the European Commission said when initiating its anti-dumping case.

In an indicative timeframe, the commission said verification visits will be conducted between 30 July and 14 September, with a pre-disclosure made on 23 November. Definitive measures could be enacted by 12 June 2021.

Turkey has previously been named in a European dumping case, but was later removed. Politics, as well as trade, have played an important role in previous discussions on steel.

The commission's investigation of dumping and injury will cover 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019, and the examination of trends relevant for the assessment of injury will run from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2019.

Turkey had a net trade surplus of 965,198t with the EU last year. But the vast majority of this was amassed in the first quarter, when Turkish imports booked over the fourth quarter of 2018 cleared customs. The US increased the Section 232 duty on Turkish steel imports to 50pc in August 2018, just as the country's currency was depreciating rapidly. This saw its mills seek additional export outlets, and Europe was the most logical choice given its proximity and existing relationship. Turkey accounted for over 50pc of the European HRC import market in January 2019, shipping almost 500,000t into the region.

But besides the slew of arrivals in the first quarter, Turkish material had little impact on the rapid rundown in European domestic HRC pricing last year. Argus' benchmark northwest European index fell from €519.50/t ex-works at the start of the year to €439.25/t by the end, after reaching a nadir of €412.25/t on 18 November.

Domestic mills fought for volume as the overstocked supply chain reacted to the automotive slowdown, and European sellers competed to move higher-gauge coils into the commodity grade sector. Turkey had a 251,279t net trade surplus with the EU for HRC in April-December 2019, and its volumes sold into the region were down year on year over June, July, August, October, November and December. European mills offered aggressively into Turkey, as well as north Africa, over the second half of the year as they looked to fill sparse order books.

Argus' domestic Italian index averaged €444.44/t ex-works, below the average of the cif Italy assessment at €450.53, between 7 February 2019 and the end of last year. Imported tonnage typically has to be around €20/t below domestic material, at least, to be attractive, although some larger buyers will always procure third-country supply to maintain relationships with a wide array of supply-side sources.

Many other bulk commodity grade exporters, such as Brazil, China, Russia, Ukraine and Iran, already have anti-dumping duties for HRC sold into Europe.

By Colin Richardson

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — A wave of new electric arc furnace steel mills coming on line next year could transform scrap flows in North America, while looming US import tariffs could stunt cross-border trade. Six steel mills in the US and Canada, accounting for about 9.9mn short tons (st)/yr of electric arc furnace (EAF) production, are ramping up from late this year or scheduled to start up in 2025. The new EAFs, mostly along the Mississippi River and in Ontario, could be magnets for scrap and reshape flows across the southeast, Midwest and Canada, as scrap-fed EAF steelmakers continue to expand their role in North America, which was historically dominated by coal and iron ore-fed blast furnaces. Although some scrap dealers are optimistic about markets in the new year, market participants are carefully monitoring the effect president-elect Donald Trump's hawkish trade policies could have on scrap trading. Trump has pledged to impose 25pc tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico that could further shift North American scrap flows. Canada is the largest shipper of ferrous scrap into the US at an average of 3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr since 2021. Prime scrap imports between January and October this year averaged 47,000t/month, while shred imports averaged 70,000t/month, US customs data shows. The import tax would drive up the cost of Canadian scrap for US buyers and potentially reduce supply available to steel mills in the Midwest. Scrap traders noted that Trump can be unpredictable and may be using the threat of tariffs as leverage. "I'm pretty tepid on the first quarter," one Midwest dealer said. "People are trying to figure out how serious Trump is on tariffs." New EAFs to drive scrap demand The new scrap-fed EAFs in North America include Algoma Steel in Ontario, Hybar in Arkansas, and Nippon Steel's and ArcelorMittal's joint venture in Alabama. US Steel's Big River Steel began melting scrap at its second Arkansas EAF in October. EAF steelmaker Hybar plans to open its 630,000 st/yr reinforcing bar mill in northeast Arkansas in the summer of 2025. Hybar, along with Big River Steel and three Nucor mills already in the region, could further bolster the lower Mississippi River basin as a major scrap market. "I'm looking forward to next year because of the increased competition," a Midwestern scrap dealer said. "It's always good to have options." The new consumption could position northeast Arkansas and Tennessee as perhaps the top scrap consuming region, making it an industry barometer in 2025. Chicago has historically held that position and has been the benchmark region in contracts. Shifting flows in Canada Algoma Steel plans to begin ramping up two new EAFs in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, in March next year to continue making hot-rolled coil and steel plate. The EAFs could eventually bring that facility's maximum steel production levels to 3.7mn st/yr once they fully replace Algoma's blast furnaces. The steelmaker will likely focus on low-copper shred and prime scrap grades to keep up the iron content in its melt mix as it transitions to EAF steelmaking, one Canadian scrap consumer said. Algoma may also continue to rely on raw inputs like direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron as it ramps up its scrap buying to feed the EAFs. Market participants in Canada expect the mill to buy scrap from the prairies west of Sault Ste Marie, as well as from the greater Toronto area to the mill's east, though Algoma will face competition to pull scrap from the latter region. Scrap dealers in the upper Midwest are also keen to supply Algoma Steel because buyers in that region are scarce. A Midwest dealer noted that Algoma may ship in scrap from US ports on the Great Lakes. Algoma did not respond to requests for comment on its raw material plans. In 2021, the company set up a joint venture with Triple M Metal, a Canadian scrap dealer with 45 yards, that will likely supply scrap for Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie. By James Marshall and Brad MacAulay US steel mill capacity additions Million short tons/yr Company Location Product type Capacity added Start date US Steel/Big River Steel Osceola, AR Sheet 3.00 RAMPING ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert, AL Sheet 1.65 2H 2024 Algoma Steel Sault Ste. Marie, ON Sheet 3.70 1Q 2025 Nucor Lexington, NC Bar 0.43 1Q 2025 Hybar Osceola, AR Bar 0.63 2Q 2025 CMC Berkeley, WV Bar 0.50 4Q 2025 Total 9.91 Argus reporting & public statements Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year

24/12/24

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year

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Viewpoint: US steel glut may dampen prices, profit

23/12/24

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23/12/24

Viewpoint: US steel glut may dampen prices, profit

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Viewpoint: China SiMn prices face pressure in 2025

23/12/24

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23/12/24

Viewpoint: China SiMn prices face pressure in 2025

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Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025

23/12/24

News

23/12/24

Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025

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