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Delta sticks to refinery after deep loss: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 14/07/20

Adds detail from call.

Delta Air Lines' refining subsidiary this spring recorded its worst operating quarter since the company acquired it in 2012, adding to the airline's average cash burn through the quarter of $43mn a day.

Delta's 185,000 b/d refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, posted a $114mn loss for the three months ended 30 June — nearly matching the $116mn loss reported in 2013 under the first full year of ownership by the airline.

Almost all of the losses were in April, and the refinery was operating at break-even levels "on the current trends," chief financial officer Paul Jacobson said. There were no immediate plans to sell or shut the refinery as the airline looks to pare down to survive an expected two-year recovery.

"As with everything in the business, we are looking at everything," Jacobson said. "But our plans have not changed with respect to the refinery right now."

The refining losses increased costs for the small volume of jet fuel Delta consumed during the quarter by almost half, or by 69¢/USG, to $2.25/USG, before certain accounting and hedging adjustments. Trainer reduced average jet fuel costs in the same quarter of 2019 by 3¢/USG with $37mn of net revenue.

Delta purchased 165mn bl of jet fuel during the second quarter, or 15pc of the volume purchased in the same quarter of last year.

Implied US jet fuel demand fell to about 352,000 b/d in the first week of May, after a month of US air passenger screenings averaging roughly 5pc of year-ago volume, according to the US Transportation Security Administration. Screenings increased to an average 19pc of year-ago traffic in June and have averaged about 27pc of year-ago levels in July. Implied US jet fuel demand averaged about 924,000 b/d in the first week of July — roughly half of the jet fuel consumed in the same week of 2019.

Week-over-week passenger screenings have slowed their growth in early July, and ticket bookings fell from weekly increases of 20pc in June to 5-10pc this month, the company said. An increase in Covid-19 cases slowed vacation travel demand, and business travel would not likely return before the US Labor Day holiday in early September, Delta chief executive Ed Bastian said.

Littler for longer

The jet fuel demand collapse challenged refiners this spring. Refineries can reduce but not fully eliminate jet fuel, and must blend the remaining unwanted production into other liquid fuels. US distillate inventories swelled as refinery jet fuel yield fell in April to a record low 4.7pc — less than half the five-year average for the month — and distillate yields soared to 38pc, a record high since the beginning of Energy Information Administration records in 1993.

Direct supply or sales and trade of gasoline and diesel from the refinery accounted for roughly 75pc of Delta's jet fuel consumption prior to the pandemic. Typical output would have roughly doubled Delta's total consumption in the second quarter. But Trainer joined US refineries in cutting throughputs as much as possible for the quarter to avoid filling stockpiles. Total diesel inventories in the New York Harbor market states including Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey ended the second quarter at about 39.2mn bl, their highest level since February 2017.

Delta reported a $5.7bn loss for the quarter on a 91pc drop in revenue, to $1.2bn. The airline ended the quarter with $15.7bn in liquidity, including $5.4bn in federal grants and loans. Daily cash burn fell from $90mn a day at the end of March to $27mn a day at the end of June. Delta will reduce its fleet size and aircraft types, encourage early retirements and offer severance packages in a plan for a "smaller, more efficient airline" going forward.

Slashed costs meant most of its remaining gap between spending down cash and breaking even would come from higher demand. The airline needs a roughly 20pc increase in sales to achieve its breakeven target by the end of the year.

Customers that have returned find air travel more pleasant than before the pandemic, Bastian said. Business travel for relationship building would return at roughly 80pc of previous levels. Delta also expects to extend a policy of flying at lower airplane capacities, leaving middle seats vacant, through the end of the year.

"I would rather have more flights back, and more seats in the market in a safe way, than trying to maximize the number of people that you can put on an individual airplane," Bastian said.


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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June


03/05/25
News
03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

London, 2 May (Argus) — Chevron has not held discussions with Kazakhstan about the country's Opec+ targets, chief executive Mike Wirth said today. Kazakhstan's production surged to a record 1.79mn b/d in March , following the start up of a new project at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January. This left the country 322,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d for the month. Kazakhstan has repeatedly vowed to comply with its Opec+ commitments, and said it would ask foreign operators at its Tengiz and Kashagan fields to reduce output. "We don't engage in discussions about Opec or Opec+ targets," Wirth said on Chevron's first-quarter earnings call today. "The barrels we produce at [Tengiz] are of high value to the government, they're important to their fiscal balance and historically those barrels have not been curtailed." Tengiz production was 901,000 b/d in March, compared with around 600,000-660,000 b/d before the new project came online. Italy's Eni, which is a key partner at the 400,000 b/d Kashagan field, made similar remarks last week. "Neither the operator of the asset, nor the shareholder and the contracting company have been engaged by the authority for any production cuts," said Eni's chief financial officer Francesco Gattei. Kazakhstan is one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, and there has been no indication that it has tried to reduce output in line with its targets. Kazakhstan's continued overproduction is understood to have contributed towards the decision by eight Opec+ members to add extra crude to the market in May . The eight will meet on 3 May to decide on production levels for June. Two delegate sources told Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Carney to meet with Trump on 6 May

Calgary, 2 May (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney will meet with US president Donald Trump on 6 May to try to resolve an ongoing trade war while also discussing the future economic relationship between the two countries. Carney announced his Washington travel plans Friday in his first media appearance following his 28 April election victory , where his Liberal party won 169 of a possible 343 seats in Parliament. Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau in late November tried to diffuse a trade war before it began in a meeting with Trump, but subsequently was on the receiving end of public taunts about Canada's sovereignty and becoming the US' 51st state. Trump did not say or insinuate that Canada should become the 51st state when they spoke this week, according to Carney. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April, prompting retaliatory tariffs by Canada. The trade war sparked a wave of anti-US sentiment and became a focal point of the election, contributing to a remarkable rebound for the Liberal party who only months ago faced slim odds of returning to power. "As I've stressed repeatedly, our old relationship, based on steadily increasing integration, is over," said Carney. "The questions now, are how our nations will cooperate in the future, and where we, in Canada, will move on." Carney has vowed to make Canada the fastest growing economy in the G7 with new alliances abroad and yet-to-be decided infrastructure projects playing a key role. "Canada does have other options and that is clear," said Carney, speaking in French. Carney's new cabinet will be sworn in during the week of 12 May and Parliament will return to session on 26 May. Absent will be Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who suffered a surprising loss in his constituency and was painted by the Liberals as being too much like Trump. He will be on the outside looking in unless a byelection occurs, which would likely require a Conservative surrendering their seat. If the Conservatives do trigger a byelection to try to get Poilievre back into Parliament, Carney said he will ensure that it happens "as soon as possible". By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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