Biden win could boost carbon, REC markets

Market: Emissions
03/11/20

The use of environmental markets in the US could get a boost if former vice president Joe Biden prevails in today's presidential election.

The Democratic presidential nominee has called for the US to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by the middle of the century, with a focus on the electric and transportation sectors. Markets for GHG allowances, renewable energy certificates (RECs), and potentially even low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, could all contribute to federal policy goals.

Biden has not explicitly called for a national carbon price, but he has left the door open to the use of a policy like cap-and-trade, saying he wants Congress to enact an "enforcement mechanism" to achieve net-zero GHGs that would make polluters "bear the full cost" of their emissions. It would also include "clear, legally binding emissions reductions" and cover the entire US economy.

To meet his goal of a zero-emissions electric grid by 2035, Biden has proposed something akin to a national REC market in calling for setting a technology-neutral "energy efficiency and clean electricity standard" for utilities and grid operators. It would "scale up best practice" from state-level clean energy programs that use RECs or similar credits for compliance.

Biden has said his approach would include a role for zero-emissions power provided by existing nuclear and hydropower generators. Many of the current state renewable energy mandates do not grant RECs for compliance to either resource.

When it comes to fuels, Biden has not said much about what he plans to do with the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), but he has criticized President Donald Trump's administration's handling of the program and has called for a "doubling down" on ethanol and advanced biofuels in US policy.

At the same time, Biden has said the US needs to do more to promote low-carbon fuels in aviation and other sectors, and he has called for setting aggressive motor vehicle standards that would eventually require the sale of only zero-emission models.

A national LCFS credit trading program could help achieve all of those policy goals.

The RFS as written runs through 2022, after which the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will take more authority over setting the program's biofuel blending mandates.

Biofuel industry supporters in Congress have signaled a desire to update the program before then, while Democrats in Capitol Hill have, to varying degrees, embraced the idea of an LCFS. Senate Democrats say a LCFS should be on the table, while their colleagues in the House of Representatives have more specifically called for transitioning the RFS into a national LCFS along the lines of California's program, which requires a 20pc reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2030.

While the focus in California is on on-road fuels like gasoline and diesel, and alternatives like biofuels and electricity, it also allows sustainable aviation fuel to generate compliance credits that can be sold to regulated fuel suppliers.

A Biden victory would lead to a complete reversal of US climate policy, four years after president Donald Trump's election did the same, especially if Democrats win control of the Senate today.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (New York) has promised to make climate legislation a priority next year if his party prevails.

"If Democrats take back the Senate, I promise we will vote on bold legislation," he told the Renewable Energy Finance Forum-Wall Street conference in September.

But of the potential environmental markets that could arise in a Biden administration, carbon pricing may prove to be the most difficult lift. Democrats may come out of the elections with control of both chambers of Congress but likely well short of the 60 votes needed in the Senate to overcome any potential Republican filibusters.

But some supporters remain optimistic that it can be done, as demand for action is growing among voters and the private sector, which could lead to more Republican support.

"I have been surprised by how interested industry is in having something like pricing carbon," US senator Mike Braun (R-Indiana) said in September during the National Clean Energy Week conference.

But he also conceded that is a policy that "politically would be something that would take some time for my side to digest.

Braun suggested his proposal to encourage US farmers to enter the carbon offset market could be the "perfect bill" for bipartisan action by Congress next year.

Even if carbon pricing stalls at the federal level, a Biden administration is likely to allow states to expand the use of markets themselves by eliminating a number of roadblocks Trump's administration has attempted to place in the way of emissions trading.

Trump's administration repealed the Clean Power Plan promulgated under former president Barack Obama's administration, replacing it with the far-less ambitious Affordable Clean Energy rule. That measure

prohibits the use of emissions trading as a compliance mechanism.

The Justice Department under Trump has sought — so far unsuccessfully — to scuttle California's carbon market link with the Canadian province of Quebec.

A course reversal on those fronts would at least give market supporters some confidence that they can play a role in achieving the goals of US and state climate policy.

By Michael Ball

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21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's Bndes approves $1.2bn in Climate Fund spending

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Brazil's Bndes approves $1.2bn in Climate Fund spending

Sao Paulo, 21 November (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved spending $1.2bn of the Climate Fund in the second and third quarters to finance climate change mitigation projects. The projects that received funding — equal to about 70pc of the fund's total — will prevent 3.3mn metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent/yr, according to Bndes. That would be 16 times more CO2 avoided than the 204,000 t from projects approved in the same period last year. In 2023 the fund released $176mn to 27 projects, most of them being renewable energy projects. The funds will go toward wind energy and biogas projects, urban mobility, bus fleet electrification and light rail transportation, as well as to finance green industries and native forest projects. Interest in developing Brazil's sustainable fuels market is growing, Bndes president Aloizio Mercadante said. "For this reason, we must at least double the resources of the Climate Fund as it is outlined in next year's federal budget," he said. One of several instruments of Brazil's climate change policy, the Climate Fund is linked to the environment ministry and is administered by Bndes. It was created in 2009 and uses resources from oil and natural gas exploration to mitigate and combat climate change. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Developing countries reject new finance draft

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cop: Developing countries reject new finance draft

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — Developing countries have expressed discontent with the climate finance draft text released today and continue to stick to their initial positions in negotiations at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Cop 29 presidency earlier today released a new draft text on the key issue of climate finance for developing countries , but entrenched positions remain with no progress on an amount. Countries must agree on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. Parties such as the group of 77 (G77) and China, Pakistan and Kenya — on behalf of the African Group of Negotiators — today responded with disappointment at the lack of an amount for finance. They are calling for a figure close to 1.3 trillion/yr in provided and mobilised finance, an amount that has long been pushed forward by developing countries. Developed countries have not indicated a number . "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," said Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The country seeks to end the country's dependence on fossil fuels , while promoting a transition to clean and renewable energy, but has long said that it is lacking the financial means to do so. The finance goal "is not an investment goal, but there remains text on investment flows," complained the G77 and China group. China's representative emphasised that the text should not "cherry-pick single paragraphs" from the Cop 28 deal, as developed countries seek to add language on fossil fuels agreed in Dubai last year. The finance text should duplicate accurately and fully the wording of the Paris Agreement, they said. China also reiterated that the finance goal is for developed countries to honour their obligations. The country pointed out that although it has provided 177bn yuan ($24.5mn) since 2016 in support of developing countries, "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. It is different in nature from the obligation of developed countries to provide financial resources, the Chinese negotiator said. UN secretary general Antonio Guterres today urged parties to "soften hard lines" and focus on the bigger picture. "Finance is not a hand-out… it's a downpayment on a safer, more prosperous future for every nation on earth." "The time to repeat initial positions has come to an end, and parties should find areas of possible compromise," he said. The summit is scheduled to end on 22 November, but many participants said it is likely to overrun. By Prethika Nair and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

21/11/24

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21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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