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New York clean power limited by transmission: NYISO

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions
  • 20/11/20

New York will require significant transmission upgrades if it expects to meet its aggressive renewable energy goals, the state's grid operator says.

New York will require transmission upgrades in "multiple areas" to ensure renewable energy can be delivered throughout its borders, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) said yesterday in a report to the state's Climate Action Council.

The grid operator found that the transmission network at present would be an obstacle toward meeting the state's mandates to get 70pc of its electricity from renewables by 2030 and 100pc from zero-emissions sources by 2040, explaining that upgrades would prevent a "significant curtailment" of resources such as wind and solar.

The issues stem from the disparity between the upstate and downstate regions in terms of carbon-free resources. In the former, 88pc of generation comes from zero-emissions sources like nuclear, hydropower and wind. In contrast, only 29pc of the generation downstate — which includes high load areas like New York City — comes from carbon-free sources.

Complicating matters, many of the state's peaking plants will retire beginning in 2023 due to new restrictions on the level of NOx emissions permitted from simple-cycle natural gas-fired combustion turbines. The state is also planning to bring peaker plants, which also use oil as fuel, under its Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative CO2 limits. The generators are only dispatched during times of high demand, like summer days, and tend to be less efficient than larger units.

As the state increase its reliance on renewables, it will need avenues to deliver power from the upstate area to the heavy demand of customers residing downstate. Additionally, New York will have to solve transmission constraints bringing offshore wind to land, with the state targeting 9,000MW of ocean-based capacity by 2035.

Regulators have already started addressing the geographical inequality in the zero-emissions generation, introducing Tier 4 renewable energy certificates (RECs) to the state's clean energy standard to track resources like wind and solar delivered to New York City.

To compensate for the loss of dispatchable generation and the intermittency of renewables, NYISO is also recommending fast-ramping projects and more reserve resources. These would supplement the grid operator's plan [to introduce]((https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2113346) a carbon price in the capacity markets to incentivize clean power.

"We must remember the degree to which system reliability, economic efficiency and environmental efficiency are interlinked," NYISO chief executive Rich Dewey said. "These attributes can and must coexist in support of our power system, economy, and consumer interests."

The NYISO report is intended to help inform the deliberations of the 22-member council, created by lawmakers last year to plan how New York will slash its GHG emissions by at least 85pc from 1990 levels by 2050.


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24/03/25

US venue case crucial for future clean air fights

US venue case crucial for future clean air fights

New York, 24 March (Argus) — The US Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear arguments about the proper court venue for Clean Air Act lawsuits, which could be pivotal for future enforcement of federal air pollution rules. The court is considering both a case involving the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) rejections of small refiners' requests for hardship exemptions from a biofuel blend mandate and the agency's separate denials of state plans for addressing ozone-forming NOx emissions. Judges are not expected to decide the legality of EPA's decisions, just the proper courts for settling the disputes. But the cases are still significant: legal uncertainty to date has affected both EPA programs implicated by the Supreme Court's review and could upend enforcement of future rules if the court does not provide sufficient clarity. Federal ozone season NOx allowance prices essentially flatlined last year as participants were hesitant to trade due to risks from so many court cases. And small refinery exemptions are crucial for biofuel demand, so biofuel producers are wary of empowering more lower courts to reconsider denied exemption requests. The Clean Air Act says that EPA actions that are "nationally applicable" or otherwise based on "nationwide scope or effect" should proceed before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, while "locally or regionally applicable" actions head to regional circuit courts instead. But judges have disagreed about how to apply those criteria, since many EPA rules have far-reaching effects but on their face target individual states or facilities. Regulated industry fears that EPA could say a broad set of regulations have nationwide scope, centralizing review in the DC Circuit, which is seen as friendlier to federal regulators and where a majority of judges are Democratic appointees. Local conditions — such as a small refinery in Indiana serving local farmers that cannot handle higher biodiesel blends — get short-changed when various companies' concerns are assembled together, they argue. But EPA under the prior administration and Democratic-led states argue that sending these cases to the DC Circuit, which is more experienced with the complexities of federal rulemaking, makes more sense than letting industry seek out favorable jurisdictions. And they highlight the possibility of courts leaving emitters in one part of the country with laxer rules. "The fundamental risk is that you'll end up with decisions on the same point of law coming out differently in different places — and not an expedient way to resolve that," said Brian Bunger, a Holland & Knight partner and the former chief counsel at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. For instance, both the DC Circuit and the conservative-leaning 5th Circuit agreed that EPA erred when it denied some refiners exemptions from biofuel blend mandates — but they said so for slightly distinct reasons. The 5th Circuit, for instance, went further by saying refiners reasonably relied on past EPA practice and thus the agency incorporating new analysis into its review of waiver requests was unfair. As a result, EPA recently used different criteria when weighing a waiver request from one refiner in the 5th Circuit's jurisdiction than it used for another refiner, according to partially redacted decisions obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency said it could not consider at all whether CVR Energy's 75,000 b/d refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, is able to pass on the costs of program compliance to consumers because of the 5th Circuit decision but could weigh such information when deciding a similar petition from Calumet's 15,000 b/d refinery in Great Falls, Montana. The agency issued those decisions in the waning days of former-president Joe Biden's term. While President Donald Trump has pledged a vastly different approach to environmental regulation, his administration for now has not signaled a different stance than the Biden administration on whether these types of disputes should proceed before the DC Circuit. Schrodinger's case It is still unclear whether the judges view the cases as a tricky technical dispute or part of a broader trend of federal agencies overstepping their authority. Tuesday's hearing could provide clues. Of the court's nine justices, four previously served on the DC Circuit and could see value in sending more complex regulatory cases to the expert court, Bunger said. But the court's conservative majority could also be wary of giving EPA too much authority to set venue. Refiners argue that the agency repackaged dozens of individual exemption denials into two larger regulatory actions as a strategy to get the cases before a friendlier court. The Supreme Court has looked skeptically at other EPA rulings and last year overturned a decades-old legal principle that gave agencies leeway when interpreting ambiguous laws. Final Supreme Court decisions usually arrive by late June. However the court rules, businesses say that it should provide a clear enough explanation to prevent similar venue disputes from reemerging. The US Chamber of Commerce told the court it takes no position beyond urging the court to "adopt an interpretation that provides clarity and predictability to all stakeholders." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU readies tweak for CO2 car standards


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

EU readies tweak for CO2 car standards

Brussels, 24 March (Argus) — The European Commission is expected to approve this week a legal proposal which would increase flexibility for compliance with CO2 standards for cars and vans. The commission is expected to adopt, by written procedure, a legal proposal on 25 March, targeting additional flexibilities around penalties for cars and vans to meet CO2 emissions performance standards. The proposal is expected to enable compliance with CO2 targets to be calculated over a three-year period , rather than for single years. EU leaders last week called for the legal proposal to be put forward "without delay". EU leaders have also called on the commission to "take forward the review" foreseen in the CO2 for cars regulation. Industry has urged the EU to allow for low carbon and zero emission fuels to be accounted for under the CO2 standards. Separately, further delay to the EU's official emissions reduction goal for 2040 appears likely. The commission does not currently have a "concrete date" to give on the GHG proposal for 2040 but it "does not seem" to be scheduled for presentation this week. The official work program for the commission had listed the 2040 GHG target, an update to the European Climate Law, in the first quarter of 2025. The delay to the EU's 2040 GHG proposal further impacts presentation of an updated EU climate plan — known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) — which will cover the timeframe up to 2035. The commission said several parties have already missed the 10 February deadline for submission of updated NDCs to UN climate body the UNFCCC. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal

London, 24 March (Argus) — Estonia's parliament has granted the country's climate ministry a mandate to push for the repeal or postponement of the EU's second emissions trading system (ETS 2) covering road transport and buildings, scheduled to launch in 2027. The Estonian parliament's EU affairs committee granted the ministry a mandate to begin consultations with the European Commission and EU member states on repealing the EU ETS 2 directive, because of the administrative burden and uncertainty posed by transposing the measure. If Estonia fails to garner sufficient support, it will join existing proposals by the Czech Republic and Poland to postpone the introduction of the new system for two years. This additional time could be used to find a way to limit the burden of imposing the measure, the committee said. These proposals would require a qualified majority of EU member states to pass. If not adopted, Estonia's climate ministry would instead start negotiations to postpone the launch of the system to 2028 or exclude road transport from its scope. The committee approved the mandate — which followed positions submitted by the government and subsequent amendments and opinions by the parliament's environment and economic affairs committees — "after a long and heated political debate", its chairman Peeter Tali said. The commission last year adopted a supply cap of 1.036bn carbon allowances in 2027 for the new system, which will cover upstream emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS. For the first three years of operation, the system will have a price cap of €45/t of CO2 equivalent, adjusted for inflation, which if surpassed for a period of two months would trigger the release of 20mn allowances from its market stability reserve. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Electricity drove surge in energy demand in 2024: IEA


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

Electricity drove surge in energy demand in 2024: IEA

London, 24 March (Argus) — Electricity demand drove a jump in overall global energy consumption growth in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, energy watchdog the IEA said today. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 — higher than the average annual demand increase of 1.3pc between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-base agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption rose by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures that led to increased cooling demand, growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and from data centres and artificial intelligence, the IEA said. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", it said. New renewable power capacity installations reached around 700GW in 2024 — a new high — while renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 40pc of total generation in 2024, it said. Global gas demand rose by 2.7pc in 2024, with an increase in "fast growing Asian markets", the IEA said. It noted growth of more than 7pc and 10pc in China and India, respectively. But "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the organisation said. Oil demand rose by 0.8pc — compared with 1.9pc in 2023 — and oil's share of total energy demand fell below 30pc last year "for the first time ever". A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA said. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, half the pace seen in 2023. "Intense heatwaves" in China and India "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs, the IEA found. Renewables limit rise in emissions The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and on demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand", the IEA said. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher in 2024 on the year, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average, it said. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA said. Energy-related CO2 emissions still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth, it said. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the IEA said. Emerging and developing economies accounted for more than 80pc of the increase in global energy demand last year, it said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Low snowpack, rain may lift Italian summer power prices


21/03/25
News
21/03/25

Low snowpack, rain may lift Italian summer power prices

London, 21 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase the call on gas-fired power plants this summer, likely supporting power prices in days when renewable generation is weakest. Hydro generation from run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric reserves accounted for almost 20pc of the power mix on average over 2020-24 in the third quarter — the second-highest share after the second quarter at 22.2pc — compared with gas-fired generation covering 45pc. But prevailing conditions suggest that without unusually wet weather this summer, Italian rivers could be drier than normal, limiting scope for hydro output and potentially opening more space for gas in the power mix, driving up electricity prices. Snow water equivalent — or the estimated water content of snow — moved back to a deficit to last year's levels on 23 February after showing signs of improvement over the first three weeks of the month, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack was at a deficit of 57pc to the 2011-23 average as of 8 March, narrowing slightly compared with a 58pc deficit around the same time in February. The deficit in the Po basin, which accounts for almost half of Italy's snow water resource, is currently at a 44pc deficit to the seasonal norm, Cima data show. In the Apennines, the Tiber basin is at a 95pc deficit to the long-term average, marking the worst balance of the last 13 years. And hydro reserves have been at a consistent deficit to last year since January and moved to a deficit to the five-year norm in the middle of February. Rainfall in Malpensa and Paganella, in the north of the country, was at an average deficit of almost 2 mm/d and 1.6 mm/d, respectively, to the seasonal norm over November and December last year. While precipitation picked up in January and moved to a surplus to the norm of 1.9 mm/d in Malpensa and 1.4 mm/d in Paganella, minimum temperatures were 1.6°C above the long-term average in Milan, reducing snow accumulation. The latest data show that hydro reserves have picked up for the first time this year in week 11, reaching 2.1TWh and narrowing their deficit to the 2020-24 average to 0.8pc compared with 5.2pc a week earlier. Still, they remain 6.6pc below last year, with the deficit standing even wider at 9.1pc, when compared with the 2015-24 average. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that minimum temperatures in Milan will hold around 2°C above the 10-year norm until the end of April, possibly leading some snowmelt to support run-of-river generation early in the second quarter, when power demand is typically at its lowest. But this would also leave less snow to melt later in the summer, when cooling demand peaks and drives up overall demand for electricity. While solar capacity increased steadily by over 500MW a month last year, the share of the power mix covered by solar output in the third quarter of 2024 remained almost unchanged from the same period in 2023. Assuming a similar monthly growth in photovoltaic (PV) capacity this year, the solar load factor is expected to increase by 1.8 percentage points to 17.8pc in the third quarter of 2025 on the year. This means that even if solar capacity and output continue growing, it may not be enough to offset a lack of hydro generation in the third quarter of this year, and thermal generation may still need to cover a significant amount of residual demand. The third quarter of 2025 has averaged €135.85/MWh ($146.83/MWh) so far this quarter, well above an average €91.60/MWh seen over the same period last year. Clean spark spreads for 55pc-efficient gas-fired units for the third quarter of 2025 have averaged around €19.60/MWh since the start of the year, compared with an average of €15.50/MWh over the same time last year. As solar and wind capacity is set to increase over the coming years to reach a national target of 110GW by 2030, renewable output will cover an increasing share of Italian electricity demand — estimated to reach 335TWh in 2028. Thermal plants may become less economically viable and will likely be decommissioned unless they are kept operating through ancillary services. But turning on gas-fired plants from cold and with a stop-start operation would lead to exaggerated costs and higher maintenance prices, Argus heard on the sidelines of the KEY25 Energy Transition Expo in Rimini earlier this month. This could lead to electricity prices spiking in periods of scarce hydro availability, as hydro-run-of river is Italy's largest single source of renewable generation, accounting for 17pc of the power mix last year compared with less than 5pc of hydro-pumped storage and reservoirs. By Ilenia Reale Italian hydro stocks TWh Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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