Biofuels decisions, costs piling up for new EPA chief

Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Oil products
11/03/21

Record compliance costs driven by urgent and overdue fuel policy decisions will press newly confirmed US Environmental Protection Agency administrator Michael Regan from the first day on the job.

Pending decisions on how much renewable fuel to require refiners and importers to blend into the US transportation supply have helped drive costs associated with federal fuel blending mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)to their highest levels in the history of the program.

The former top environmental regulator of North Carolina, a state without any tilt toward refining or agribusiness-based biofuels, must give both those industries clarity on what — if any — adjustments the new administration will make to those requirements following a year of depressed global fuel demand.

Regan last month promised a Senate confirmation hearing that the agency would be transparent in its decisions. But the administrator did not pledge haste, noting the number of renewable fuels needs under litigation and market scrutiny.

"What I can promise you is we will take a no-surprise approach," Regan told the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee.

EPA must set overdue minimum renewable fuel blending requirements for 2021, and by December set those requirements for 2022. The agency must also by December set blending requirements for 2023 as EPA for the first year takes greater authority over the RFS without specific Congressional targets.

And EPA remains dogged by past decisions and deferrals. Governors asked that the agency waive blending requirements for 2020 in light of the steep drop in fuel demand forced by global movement restrictions to limit the spread of Covid-19. Legal challenges to the former administration's use of mandate waivers for refineries processing less than 75,000 b/d of crude a year now stretch all the way to the US Supreme Court. EPA remains under court orders to find some way to add 500mn USG of blending requirements reduced in 2016 back into a future mandate. And a host of proposed advanced biofuels still wait for approval.

Costs to comply with the RFS have climbed over the past 13 months to surpass 16¢/USG, based on Argus assessments. That cost represents the price of the various credits needed to comply with the federal program for every gallon of gasoline and diesel added to the US road fuel supply. Those costs started last year at about 2.6¢/USG.

Regan may have little history with biofuels regulation, but President Joe Biden's administration also brings back prominent officials very familiar to program participants. Janet McCabe, nominated as deputy EPA administrator, from 2013 to 2017 was acting assistant administrator for EPA's Office of Air and Radiation — the office directly responsible for administering RFS. Gina McCarthy, former president Barack Obama's EPA administrator during that period, is Biden's national climate advisor.

By Elliott Blackburn

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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

Houston, 6 November (Argus) — Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies. An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures. The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day. While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks. The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations. While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration. Under the Clean Air Act, which sets the framework for the RFS, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude have a pathway to waive biofuel blending obligations if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate economic hardship." Precedent over these small refiner exemptions (SREs) affect the supply and demand balance of credits, which in turn alter the economics biofuel producers face as they rely on RIN credits as a source of revenue. From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs. During that span of time, EPA also chose not to adjust the renewable volume obligations on larger refineries to account for those that had secured waivers. This helped create an oversupply of D4, D5, and D6 credits and drove prices down to more than five-year lows. Cellulosic biofuel D3 credits in today's market also face a different set of parameters from the program's earlier years. The cellulosic waiver credit allowed producers to purchase waivers for D3 obligation given a shortage of RINs. But this mechanism changed under EPA's "set authority" and the Biden administration has brushed off a request from refiners to both lower requirements and make available waiver credits. Current year D3 prices have risen as high as 350¢/RIN this year as a result as cellulosic biofuel production trails agency expectations. A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates. RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers. By Matthew Cope and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexican peso plummets on Trump win

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06/11/24

Mexican peso plummets on Trump win

Mexico City, 6 November (Argus) — The Mexican peso fell sharply against the US dollar as markets priced in potential retaliation against Mexico following former president's Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. "A Republican Senate majority and potential House win raise the chances of Trump's radical reforms, which could hurt Mexico's economic dynamism," said a financial analyst from Mexican bank Monex in a note today. The peso initially dropped around 3pc to Ps20.71/$1 early today, hitting a two-year low before recovering to Ps20.20/$1 by midday. The peso may weaken further, as Mexico is vulnerable to tariff hikes amid strained relations over issues like immigration and the opioid crisis, according to a desk report from a major Mexican bank. Trump repeatedly threatened tariffs on Mexico during his presidential campaign, most recently pledging a 25pc tariff on all Mexican imports unless President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration launches a severe crackdown on Mexico's drug cartels, which ship fentanyl and other drugs across the border to the US. Recent constitutional amendments in Mexico, including judicial reforms and proposed eliminations of independent regulators, may also add downward pressure on the peso, according to the report. "The government's goal to direct private-sector involvement could limit market forces," it noted. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically offsets peso depreciation due to its dollar-denominated oil export revenues, which help cover increased import costs. "Pemex's exports and domestic sales are tied to international hydrocarbon prices, providing a natural hedge," the company stated in its most recent report. Still, analysts warn that Pemex's focus on domestic refining over crude exports could erode this hedge, leaving it more exposed to foreign exchange swings on USD-denominated debt. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump win could reshape US biofuels incentives

06/11/24

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06/11/24

Trump win could reshape US biofuels incentives

New York, 6 November (Argus) — Donald Trump's return to the White House next year will give Republicans the power to rethink biofuel incentives that have spurred a boom in production under President Joe Biden. Biden-controlled agencies may try to use their final months in power to push through tax credit guidance that encourages biorefineries to do more to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But in both the executive branch and in Congress, Republicans will soon have leverage to shift away from Democrats' recent efforts to tie biofuel incentives to climate impacts. The Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" tax credit, starting in January, will offer greater federal subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions. The Biden administration could issue long-awaited guidance spelling out how the government will calculate carbon intensities for different fuels and feedstocks, but that might just delay the inevitable. A Republican-controlled Congress could use the Congressional Review Act next year to repeal any guidance lawmakers see as too restrictive to farmers, and a Trump administration will regardless be able to develop new rules that reprioritize which companies benefit from the credit. Republicans could focus on imported feedstocks, which have surged in recent years as refiners cashed in on state clean fuel incentives by sourcing waste feedstocks primarily from Asia and South America. Farm groups, fearing that ample supply of foreign used cooking oil and tallow is curbing demand for domestic biofuel feedstocks like soybean oil, have pushed for the US government to restrict refiners using foreign feedstocks from claiming 45Z. An outright ban has legal risks, but Trump officials could think more creatively around deterring feedstock imports – potentially through guidance that is generous to crop-based fuels or that imposes carbon penalties on feedstocks that travel long distances to reach the US. Expected tariff hikes on foreign imports could alone curb demand for global biofuel feedstocks, with Chinese used cooking oil a likely target. But products like Brazilian tallow and Canadian canola oil potentially could be affected as well. Congress could also complicate the tax picture before Trump takes office. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said before the election Tuesday that he expects a proposal to extend the $1/USG blenders tax credit for biomass-based diesel another year to feature in an end-of-year package. Current bill language would not repeal 45Z but would allow fuel to claim whichever incentive offers the larger benefit, likely boosting crop-based diesels set to earn much less than $1/USG under 45Z. There is no guarantee a lame duck Congress will take up such a proposal, especially with various other policy priorities on lawmakers' agendas. But expiring biofuel credits could feature in negotiations, including a blenders credit for sustainable aviation fuel and a credit that benefits cellulosic ethanol producers, biofuel lobbyists said. A potential vehicle for longer-lasting policy changes is an expected fight in Congress next year over tax policy. Republicans, hoping to pay for extending Trump-era tax cuts that would otherwise expire, could do so by repealing Inflation Reduction Act incentives. But farm state lawmakers, especially in a House of Representatives that looks like it will be closely contested between Republicans and Democrats, would also have leverage to push for some federal biofuel incentives to remain, even if they look different than the current 45Z mechanism. Importantly too, the 45Z incentive is set to expire after 2027. Whether details are hashed out in Congress this year, next year, or afterwards, Trump and his allies will be able to tie any credit extension to desired policy objectives. There are two bills in Congress that would extend the credit into the 2030s, but the only one with Republican support bars foreign feedstocks from qualifying. Federal momentum around boosting biofuels in a second Trump term will also depend on how policies beyond tax credits develop. Increasingly ambitious state climate policies – such as California's low-carbon fuel standard, which could be made more stringent this week – could keep planned renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel capacity additions on track. At the same time, retaliatory tariffs from China could hurt farmers more than higher domestic biofuel sector demand helps. And Trump could use planned updates to federal renewable fuel blend mandates to either assuage biofuel producers struggling to plan around policy uncertainty or to lower compliance costs for oil groups that strongly backed his candidacy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop 29 finance talks need leadership after Trump win

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Iran sounds alarm on gasoline shortage

06/11/24

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06/11/24

Iran sounds alarm on gasoline shortage

Dubai, 6 November (Argus) — The new Iranian government has sounded the alarm on an emerging gasoline shortage that looks set to get worse unless new policies are introduced to clamp down on runaway demand growth. Presenting a draft budget for the Iranian year starting on 20 March 2025, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian criticised the existing gasoline rationing system, calling it one of the major hurdles for the proposed bill. Iran has, since 2007, allowed citizens to buy base levels of gasoline at subsidised prices and any additional at a higher price. But the system failed to cap demand and imports sufficiently. In the proposed budget the government has signalled plans to ease shortages, but increasing prices is not on the agenda. A cut to subsidies in 2019 sparked nation-wide protests . "Today the cost of [producing] gasoline — which includes refining costs, transportation costs, and gas station maintenance costs — is about 8000 tomans (80,000 rials)," Pezeshkian said. But consumers only pay 7.5pc of the actual price of gasoline, according to Iran's oil ministry. Iran's gasoline consumption has reached a record high of around 750,000 b/d in the first seven months of the Iranian year that began on 20 March, according to the ministry. Domestic refinery capacity of 670,000 b/d has been unable to satisfy this. To bridge the gap Iran has turned to imports, which has not been easy for the heavily sanctioned country that buys the fuel at market prices. "Around 90 trillion tomans [$1.3bn at the free market rate] was spent to import gasoline this year, which could be increased to 130 trillion tomans [$1.9bn] next year if the [demand growth] trend continues," Pezeshkian warned. Supply-side response If Tehran is unwilling to raise pump prices it will have to add more supply. Work in underway to bringing online an additional fourth train at the Persian Gulf Star (PGS) condensate splitter, and on a 60,000 b/d splitter that made up just one part of the now shelved Siraf project. Consultancy FGE expects these projects to be commissioned by the end of 2025 or early 2026 and "potentially close the gap." The newly-appointed head of state-owned refining company NIORDC, Mohammad Sadegh Azimifar, said using CNG-powered vehicles could reduce the need for more gasoline production. "There are good legal capacities in the country for the development of CNG, including the approval of the energy optimization fund," he said. But CNG has lower mileage and energy content, and CNG filling stations are beset with long queues. "If you have a CNG car, you can only drive it for a day and one will have to wait in long queues to get it refilled, only for it to last for another day", said FGE's Middle East managing director Iman Nasseri. Iran has sufficient reserves of natural gas and LPG, but both of these failed to emerge as a good alternative fuel, he said. The Pezeshkian administration has repeated calls to increase use of public transport and modernise the country's vehicle fleet. But metros and buses are being utilised at maximum capacity and private vehicles are a favourable option in a country with the second-most discounted fuel prices in the world, Nasseri said. Iran is yet to tackle rampant fuel smuggling, with market sources indicating gasoline continues to be illegally shipped to neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan. Earlier this week, authorities seized around 220,000l of smuggled fuel in several warehouses in Mashhad. While the administration strongly rebukes subsidies, with new vice president Mohammad Reza Aref calling them "unreasonable", they continue to look at solutions that does not include any increase in retail prices, in fear of a repeat of the 2019 protests. But with a lack of infrastructure to capitalize on CNG and limitations in public transportation system, the government may have no choice but to reconsider. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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