Australia extends forecasts for iron ore price strength

Market: Coking coal, Metals
11/05/21

The Australian government has extended its forecast for stronger iron ore prices by six months, as it expects record prices to drive economic growth and improve its terms of trade despite growing tensions with China.

The Australian treasury now forecasts iron ore prices to fall to the long term average of $55/t fob Australia only by the end of March 2022, rather than the end of September 2021 as previously predicted. And there is further upside risk to its guidance given strong global steel demand.

"A stronger recovery in steel production outside of China could also provide further support for iron ore and metallurgical coal prices," the treasury department said in the 2021-22 federal budget released today.

China takes around 75pc of Australia's iron ore exports, while Australian iron ore makes up around 60pc of China's total imports of the raw material, according to research by Swiss bank UBS. This appears to make the iron ore trade too important to both countries to be dragged into the diplomatic dispute that has led Beijing to ban all imports of Australian coal.

Fortescue Metals is the most exposed of the big four Australian iron ore producers to China, followed by BHP, then Rio Tinto and finally Roy Hill. But even Roy Hill, which has South Korean shareholders, still ships around 65pc of its ore to China.

Beijing's ban on Australian coking coal imports has disrupted trade flows and pushed down the price of hard coking coal, as well as removing its premium to lower-grade Pulverised Coal Injection (PCI) supplies. Canberra expects the metallurgical coal spot price to stay around $122/t fob Australia to the end of March next year.

Iron ore's importance to Australia's budget was shown in the treasury's sensitivity analysis. An immediate fall to $55/t fob would cost Australia A$8.3bn ($6.5bn) in lost taxes compared to current scenarios, while the maintenance of current prices to the end of March would add A$5.5bn, the analysis shows. Canberra recorded a deficit of just A$690mn in its last pre-Covid 19 budget, in 2018-19, but expects the deficit to be A$161bn in 2020-21 — the largest on record.

Argus assessed the ICX iron ore price yesterday at a new high of $230.05/dmt cfr Qingdao on a 62pc Fe basis, up from $167.45/t on 1 April and $159.90/t on 31 December. Argus assessed the premium hard low-volatile coking coal price at $110.95/t fob Australia today, down from a recent high of $157.35/t on 2 February.

By Jo Clarke

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

14/03/25

Argentina’s inflation continues to ease in Feb

Houston, 14 March (Argus) — Argentina's inflation continued to ease in February, falling to its lowest since June 2022. The consumer price index fell to an annualized 66.9pc in February from 84.5pc in January and compared with 117.8pc in December, agency Indec reported on 14 March. Inflation peaked at 292pc in April 2024. On a monthly basis, inflation ticked up by 2.4pc in February from the prior month, when it came in at 2.2pc, the lowest since mid-2020. The government is targetting annual inflation to fall to 20pc for 2025, while international agencies and banks put it above 30pc. Lowering inflation is a central tenet of president Javier Milei's government, in office now 15 months, as it works to grow the economy and attract investment. It is also key to a new deal the government wants with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government is forecasting growth in domestic product at 5pc in 2025. The economy contracted by nearly 2pc in 2024, an improvement over the 3.8pc decline forecast by the government and the IMF's estimated 5pc contraction. It is hoping for a flood of investment from an incentive law for large investments (RIGI), which was approved last year as part of an omnibus law to reduce the size of the state. The government expects a minimum of $20bn investment to be approved in 2025. A cornerstone of the improvement is a new agreement with the IMF, which will be used to ease capital controls and pay down the treasury's debt with the central bank. On 11 March, the government submitted a draft decree to Congress for approval of the IMF deal. The decree stated that the new IMF facility would include a repayment period of 10 years with a grace period of four and a half years. The decree does not include amounts, but a report from US investment bank Citi stated that it would be between $15-20bn. The government is still repaying the $44bn agreement with the fund agreed to the previous decade. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

EU finds no dumping on India HRC

14/03/25

News

14/03/25

EU finds no dumping on India HRC

London, 14 March (Argus) — A pre-disclosure to the EU's anti-dumping investigation found no dumping on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from India, while imposing provisional duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam in a range of 6.9-33pc from 7 April. Japan's Nippon Steel faces one of the highest import duties, at 33pc, while benchmark mill Tokyo Steel has the lowest, at 6.9pc. Fellow Japanese steelmakers Daido Steel and JFE Steel will be taxed at 32pc. All other Japanese producers will have a provisional duty of 33pc. Material from Vietnam will be subject to a 12.1pc duty, while Egyptian exporters face a 15.6pc tax. No provisional duties are proposed for imports from Vietnam's Hoa Phat, according to a leaked document from the European Commission. Egypt, Japan and Vietnam sold 2.2mn t of HRC into the EU last year, accounting for around 25pc of total imports. Egypt sold 694,000t, Japan 860,000t and Vietnam 727,000t. Indian imports will be unconstrained, as they are subject to a 0pc duty. It shipped 1.2mn t into its own quota last year. India was the most affected HRC supplier by the safeguard review, with imports from the country falling by 23pc to 225,000 t/quarter. The provisional rates mean Vietnamese HRC will remain easily workable into the EU, and the duties will have little impact on the volume of supply from the country — apart from the limitations already imposed by the safeguard review, which limits imports from other countries to around 111,000 t/quarter. Egypt would be "cooked", a trader said, with its import volumes likely to decline substantially, if the provisional duties become definitive. Prices in the EU are less likely to increase if these duty rates are imposed, and because the safeguard review results earlier in the week were less stringent than expected, a buyer said. The low duties on Vietnamese material — below most market expectations — will be welcomed by large re-rollers that account for a high share of the country's exports to the EU. Definitive measures are expected by 7 October. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson EU HRC provisional anti-dumping duties % Mill Provisional duty Japan Nippon Steel 33.0 Tokyo Steel 6.9 Daido Steel 32.0 JFE Steel 32.0 All others 33.0 Egypt Ezz Steel 15.6 All others 15.6 Vietnam Formosa Ha Tinh 12.1 All others* 12.1 India All mills 0† * No duties on Hoa Phat Dung Quat †no dumping found - EC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Korea's Samsung SDI to raise funds for battery growth

14/03/25

News

14/03/25

Korea's Samsung SDI to raise funds for battery growth

Singapore, 14 March (Argus) — South Korean battery maker Samsung SDI is looking to raise 2 trillion Korean won ($1.38bn) to fuel its battery production developments, citing a Hungary plant expansion and its joint venture investment with US carmaker General Motors (GM). The capital raise is based on the mid- to long-term growth prospects of the electric vehicle battery market, given that battery facility investments take 2-3 years to reach mass production, said the firm on 14 March. Samsung SDI previously flagged that it intends to expand its plant in Hungary's God to 40 GWh/yr. The firm in August 2024 signed an agreement with GM to build a two-phase nickel-cobalt-aluminum battery plant that is expected to have a final production capacity of 36 GWh/yr in New Carlisle, Indiana. The joint venture investment will take around $3.5bn. The proceeds will also be used to invest in solid-state battery line facilities in South Korea, said Samsung SDI. The firm launched its first all solid-state battery pilot line back in March 2022 and aims to mass produce solid-state batteries in 2027, which are more stable and have high energy density, it said last year. Its facility investment has quadrupled from W1.7 trillion in 2019 to W6.6 trillion last year, but Samsung SDI expects this to shrink this year, citing "investment efficiency". Samsung SDI's battery usage fell by almost 11pc to 29.6GWh in 2024, according to data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research, given a decline in demand from major car original equipment manufacturers in Europe and North America. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australia's Liontown to transition Li mine underground

14/03/25

News

14/03/25

Australia's Liontown to transition Li mine underground

Sydney, 14 March (Argus) — Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources is on-track to transition its Kathleen Valley mine from an open pit to an underground site in order to extract higher-grade ore. The company started mining underground at the 2.8mn t/yr site in November 2023 and plans to entirely stop open pit operations by January-March 2026. Liontown will start ramping up its underground operations starting in April-June 2025, it announced in its July-December 2024 half year report on 14 March. The company has also increased the efficiency of its open pit operations in recent months. Liontown cut its Kathleen Valley waste to ore ratio from 5.1 in July-September to 1.25 in October-December, and increased concentrate production at the site from 28,171t to 88,683t over the same period. The company's recent combined output and efficiency improvements softened losses for the quarter. The company posted losses of A$15.1mn ($9.5mn) in July-December 2024, down from A$30.9mn in the same period in 2023. Liontown highlighted low spot spodumene and lithium chemical prices as a source of concern despite its recent financial improvement. But Kathleen Valley's increasing efficiency could mitigate ongoing price challenges, the company said. Argus -assessed lithium concentrate (spodumene) 6pc Li2O cif China price has decreased sharply since it was first assessed in May 2022, falling from $4,925/t to $875/t over 17 May 2022-11 March 2025. But the price has been increasing over recent months despite the long-term decline, rising from $835/t on 17 December 2024. By Avinash Govind Argus' spodumene price (May 2022-March 2025) ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Steelmaker Gerdau to buy Kloeckner's Brazil assets

13/03/25

News

13/03/25

Steelmaker Gerdau to buy Kloeckner's Brazil assets

Sao Paulo, 13 March (Argus) — Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau closed a deal to acquire German metals service centre Kloeckner's operations in Parana, Brazil, for an undisclosed value. Gerdau, historically a long steel producer, has been investing in flat steel assets. The company this week inaugurated its expanded hot-rolling mill, boosting hot-rolled coil (HRC) capacity by 30pc to 1.1mn t/yr. The company has submitted a request to Brazil's antitrust watchdog Cade seeking approval for the acquisition, before completing the transaction. Kloeckner has operated in Brazil since 2011, following its acquisition of 70pc of Frefer Metal Plus assets. Last October, the German company announced that it will exit the Brazilian metals market, aligning with its strategy to concentrate investments in European and North American markets. Besides Parana, Kloeckner has plants in Sao Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more