Adds updated results throughout.
Mexico's incumbent Morena party could lose its simple majority in the lower house, according to preliminary mid-term election results, but with its allies it will still be the largest political force in the country, able to set annual spending priorities.
The party of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears far from the two-thirds majority that would have let it continue to undo the 2014 energy reform by constitutional changes or make other sweeping reform. Morena had won a projected 190-203 of the 500 seats with 35pc of votes counted as of 12:10am ET today. It could lose close to 50-60 seats compared with the 256 seats it had gained in the 2018 election that also swept Lopez Obrador into power.
The party with the next most votes after Morena is so far the right-wing, national action party (PAN) with 20pc of the votes, and 106-117 seats. This party formed an alliance with the centrist PRI that has 18pc of the votes and 63-75 of the seats, and with the moderate left-wing PRD that had 3pc and 12-21 seats, for a combined 41pc. The three parties together form the main opposition to the Lopez Obrador government.
"Morena will no longer have the majority of the lower house to change on a whim the constitution, or to weaken autonomous institutions, including the election authority," national action party head Marko Cortes said.
The citizen movement (MC) party emerged with 7pc of the votes. The new, independent party has not aligned with either other major group and could provide critical votes.
Key allied parties of Morena appear set to have another combined 75-89 seats that would leave Morena and its allies with 245-271 seats. Morena and its allies will likely have no problem passing the budget, ear-marking resources for social programs and continuing construction of the planned 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery.
AMLO accepts results
Despite losing some of his grip on the lower house, Lopez Obrador today spoke positively of the results of yesterday's election.
"I am very grateful because as a result of this election, the parties that favor our transformation project will still hold the majority in the lower house," the president said today. "This guarantees the budget."
He called the voting a "clean" election, unlike in prior elections where he accused the government of meddling in the tallies.
Voter participation looks set to be the highest in Mexico's history for a mid-term election, with roughly 50pc of the 93.3mn eligible voters participating.
The election was relatively calm, with 99.7pc of election sites working normally, yet there was some sporadic violence and alleged theft of ballot boxes.
More comprehensive results are expected by 9 July. The final vote count and seat distribution in congress will be official on 23 August. The next legislative session will begin on 1 September.
The president and Morena have used legislative reform and policy decisions to walk back many tenets of the 2014 energy reform that opened the previously monopolized sector to competition. These mid-term elections — unlike most which typically draw less attention — were seen as key in possibly tipping the balance of whether Morena could more rapidly embark on wholesale changes.
The energy reform's secondary laws, such as the hydrocarbon law, are still at stake. Private investors have challenged in court legislative reforms to allow state-owned Pemex to compete as any other company and to how fuel permits are granted. A more balanced congress would make it more difficult for the president to challenge laws and maintain the independence of the supreme court.
A federal court today reimposed market power limits on state-owned Pemex, including the mandate to publicly post wholesale prices, extending an initial temporary suspension of the recent legislative reforms.
Mixed governors, Mexico City results
Morena also appears to have won 12 of the 15 races for governors disputed yesterday. Of these states where Morena's candidate seems on top, 10 had more than 80pc of the votes counted, in Guerrero there were only 36pc of the votes counted and in San Luis Potosi 58pc, as of 2:45pm ET today.
Yet, in another surprise result, Mexico City's 16 delegates were split geographically, with the east being for the right wing coalition, and the west for the Morena party. This was probably the most hard felt defeat for the Morena party that had traditionally won almost all the capital's delegations with ease. A subway overpass collapse in the city last month and a poor management of the pandemic may have played into the results.
Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum of Morena, elected in 2018 for a term running to 2024, will now have to deal with right-wing politicians.
The right-wing national action party (PAN) remained the clear winner in industrial Queretaro.
