Uganda, DRC start road network to boost trade, security

Market: Crude oil
16/06/21

Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) today launched the construction of a 223km road network designed to boost bilateral trade and improve security for oil companies operating in the Lake Albert basin.

The road network will run from Uganda's border deep into the DRC's eastern region, where a number of rebel groups operate. These include Uganda's Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a militant organisation that the US State Department has linked with Islamist group Isis. According to the UN, ADF rebels have been responsible for hundreds of killings in the DRC since January, as well as attacks on schools and hospitals in the eastern provinces of Ituri and North Kivu, which border Uganda's Lake Albert basin.

The jointly-funded road network will not only help to improve interconnectivity between the two countries but it will also aid their armies in preventing rebels from disrupting oil activities in the Lake Albert region, according to Ugandan minister of works and transport Katumba Wamala. "Uganda will contribute $65.9mn out of the total bill of $334.3mn in this project, which is very strategic for security, economic and political importance," Wamala told Argus.

Uganda has already set up a base in the town of Beni in North Kivu, with 1,500 troops ready to protect the road workers and fight insurgents. It plans to add 500 more soldiers by September, Wamala said. Attempts to bolster security in the region are crucially important for TotalEnergies and China's state-owned CNOOC, which are preparing to develop a 230,000 b/d project that will link Ugandan oil fields in the Lake Albert basin by pipeline to the Tanzanian port of Tanga.

The project has made progress in recent days, with TotalEnergies confirming the provisional award of several key contracts for the development of the 190,000 b/d Tilenga complex, including for the construction of a central processing facility. Tilenga, together with the nearby 40,000 b/d Kingfisher development, make up the upstream part of the Lake Albert project, in which TotalEnergies holds 56.67pc, China's CNOOC 28.33pc and Ugandan state-owned UNOC 15pc.

TotalEnergies is keenly aware of the security risks facing oil and gas projects in east Africa, having declared force majeure on its 13.1mn t/yr LNG project in Mozambique earlier this year following insurgent attacks. The surge in violence in eastern DRC has prompted the government to suspend the civilian administrations of North Kivu and Ituri, and enforce martial law.

By Mercy Matsiko

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05/11/24

Voting set to conclude in race for White House

Washington, 5 November (Argus) — Voting concludes today in the US presidential contest between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris, a race with high stakes for energy policy, trade and climate change. Polls will close by 6-9pm ET in eastern states and by 11 pm ET in most western states, but election officials say it will take time to count votes, including from mail-in ballots that will trickle in over the coming days. As of 3 November, voters who went to the polling stations early or sent mail-in ballots added up to 48pc of the total turnout in 2020, according to analysis by the Washington Post. The presidential race is likely to be determined by voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where pre-election polls have shown no decisive lead for Harris or Trump. Voters are casting ballots at a time when domestic oil and gas production is booming. US crude output reached a record high 13mn b/d last year, while gas production hit a record 103 Bcf/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Despite record production and profits in the oil industry, Trump has focused heavily on energy policy — and voter anger over higher prices across the economy — in his bid to win a second term. US drivers paid an average of $3.07/USG for regular grade gasoline in the week ended on 4 November, the lowest price in 10 months — but still higher than at any point during Trump's first presidency. On the campaign trail, Trump has assured oil and gas producers that under his watch they would be permitted to "drill, baby, drill" and has promised to dismantle the energy tax credits in President Joe Biden's signature climate initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act. Harris has committed to support the 2022 law and other energy policies adopted by Biden, including continued support for electric vehicles. Harris has disavowed her 2019 pledge to ban hydraulic fracturing. But oil and gas firms remain concerned about restrictions on federal leasing and efforts to electrify the vehicle fleet if she is elected. The next president will decide key questions on energy policy, such as how to proceed with a "pause" on the licensing of new US LNG export facilities and to manage climate-related rules for power plants, oil and gas facilities and vehicles. The race for the White House will have equally high stakes for companies involved in metals and agriculture , as well as other commodities. Trump is planning a combative approach to trade, with a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs against China, and to rescind many regulations. In 2025, the US Congress is poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts. Russia's war on Ukraine, and the future of US restrictions on Russian energy exports is also at stake during the election. Trump has vowed to end the war by forcing Kyiv to negotiate a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and appears to back the Kremlin's argument that the continuation of US sanctions on Russia would weaken and undermine the dollar. A Harris administration would continue enforcing the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports and, possibly, add to the restrictions on Moscow's earnings from its oil and gas exports. The growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East is threatening to overwhelm the final months of Biden's term in office and any foreign policy initiatives either candidate vying to succeed him will pursue in the region. US-China relations are likely to remain adversarial in coming years. Viewing Beijing as the principal economic and geopolitical challenge for the US is a rare overlap in foreign policy priorities identified by Trump and Harris. Of particular concern in Washington is the ability of oil exporting countries such as Iran, Venezuela and Russia to find willing buyers for their crude in China despite US sanctions. Polls also show a tight race in the fight for control of the US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a slim 220-212 majority. Up to 22 congressional races are up to grabs, with a range of potential outcomes favoring either party, election ratings firm Cook Political Report says. Cook rates 208 seats as solid or leaning Republican, and 205 solid or leaning Democratic, with both shy of the 218 needed for control of the chamber. In the US Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, Republicans have a clear path to taking control because of polling leads in West Virginia and Montana. Republicans could win control of the Senate by flipping just one seat, if Trump wins the election, but would need to flip two seats if Harris wins. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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04/11/24

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04/11/24

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Oil use still flat to 2030 in TotalEnergies scenarios

04/11/24

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04/11/24

Oil use still flat to 2030 in TotalEnergies scenarios

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