Venezuela negotiating agenda in crosscurrent

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
12/08/21

The resumption of talks between the Venezuelan government and its main opponents this weekend in Mexico is fueling pressure from all sides to shape the modest agenda, even though it will take far more than a handshake to fully dismantle US sanctions.

A Venezuelan government delegation and representatives of the main opposition factions are expected to sign a Norwegian-brokered framework agreement on rules of engagement for more substantive talks set for September. Short-term objectives are establishing credible conditions for regional elections in November, freeing political prisoners and broadening a humanitarian aid channel.

Others are hoping the agenda will provide an umbrella for bolder aims.

Chevron wants the US to ease its sanctions waiver to rejuvenate its Orinoco heavy oil project and other assets. The government of President Nicolas Maduro is seeking to end a UK Supreme Court battle with opposition leader Juan Guaido's US-backed interim administration over control of Venezuelan central bank gold reserves in the Bank of England with a deal to procure pandemic aid through the UN. Families of six detained executives of Venezuelan state-owned PdV's US refining subsidiary Citgo want them released.

Private equity investors are also eyeing reconstruction opportunities. And PdV bondholders and arbitration claimants pine for debt restructuring, a tall order as neither side wants to assume Venezuela's colossal liabilities, especially the potential loss of Citgo.

Little to lose

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has little to lose in resuming negotiations with his main political opponents after overcoming years of US sanctions. His adversaries are diminished and the regional hostility he once faced has evaporated. But Maduro's goal of lifting all sanctions — and returning Venezuelan oil to the open market — will require ceding more ground than his own political camp may be willing to give up.

After months of policy stasis, US president Joe Biden's administration is encouraging the Venezuelan negotiations in concert with the EU and signaling a willingness to gradually dismantle the sanctions by prioritizing carrots over sticks. An initial step of authorizing LPG sales was symbolic. But restoring Venezuelan crude-for-diesel swaps is possible, a move that would allow EU firms Repsol and Eni to resume PdV in-kind payment for their natural gas production. In contrast to Iran, the upside for Venezuela's deteriorated national oil industry is nonetheless limited.

The last Venezuelan talks, held in Barbados in 2019, collapsed in a regional context hostile to Maduro, echoing former US president Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy designed to oust him. Peru, once a leader of regional opposition to Maduro, is the latest Latin American country to swing the other way, mirroring Argentina and Bolivia. Chile and Ecuador have turned inward, while conservative stalwarts Colombia and Brazil are too weak to carry the anti-Maduro mantle.

Early on, Mexico and Uruguay resisted Trump's hawkish Venezuela campaign, invoking a "non-interference" stance and aligning with a dovish EU approach. Mexico's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, looking to burnish his international credentials practiced on Opec last year, will now host the Venezuelan talks, giving him a platform not unlike Cuba's sponsorship of Colombia's 2016 peace deal.

No white flag

Forced to walk back their all-or-nothing strategy, Maduro's staunchest foes are wary of perceptions that they are re-entering talks waving a white flag. Exiled hardliner Leopoldo Lopez and his more pragmatic rival at home, Henrique Capriles, are using the talks to raise their leadership profiles before Guaido's mandate lapses in January 2022. Maduro is positioned to remain in power at least until presidential elections in 2024.

By Patricia Garip

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16/01/25

Singapore’s bunker demand hits record high in 2024

Singapore, 16 January (Argus) — Bunker demand at the port of Singapore hit a record high of 54.9mn t in 2024, with Singapore remaining the biggest bunkering hub in the world. "Singapore continues to be the world's largest container transshipment hub," said transport minister Murali Pillai at the Singapore Maritime Foundation (SMF) New Year Conversations this week. Bunker demand jumped by 6pc on the year at the island nation, with total and conventional bunker sales reaching an all-time high, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). Total container throughput also hit a record high of 41.12mn twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in 2024, surpassing 40mn TEUs for the first time, Pillai added. This was up from 39m TEUs in 2023. The number of tanker arrivals for the year reached 25,802, up from 24,763 in 2023. Singapore's bunkering of alternative marine fuels also breached the 1mn t mark in 2024, with 882,830t of bio-fuel blends and 463,948t of LNG bunkered at the port. Bunkering of bio-blends, using very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), jumped by 51pc from 518,000t in 2023 to 779,900t in 2024. Demand for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO)-based B24 rose to 89,300t in 2024, from only 5,600t bunkered in 2023, as blending HSFO with Ucome picked up. This was supported by more scrubber installations by ship owners and the push to meet green savings targets set by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Carbon Intensity Index (CII) and EU-led FuelEU Maritime. Among other alternative marine fuels, LNG bunkering more than quadrupled to 463,900t in 2024 versus 110,900t. Interest to bunker LNG has surged among ship owners in this region since 2024, in an effort to again meet the compliance requirements set by IMO and EU. Methanol for bunkering demand remained modest with sales registered only for one month last year, 1,626t in May. Singapore VLSFO demand declined by 3.7pc from 2023 to 29.6mn t in 2024. Its HSFO demand grew for the fifth year in a row to 20.2mn t in 2024, and was up by 21pc from 2023. Singapore's marine distillates sales rose by 2pc from 2023 to 3.8mn t in 2024, but fell from its 2020 peak of 4.7mn t. Ranking MPA also published a list of its five top biofuel bunker and top 10 conventional bunker suppliers in 2024, which showed some reshuffling. South Korean refiner SK Energy joined Singapore's top five biofuel suppliers in 2024, but it was not on MPA's list of 14 registered biofuel bunker suppliers in 2023. BP had ranked third in 2023, but fell out of the top five in 2024. Chevron, Maersk, Minerva and Vitol were Singapore's other top five biofuel bunker suppliers. Glencore entered the top 10 ranking of conventional marine fuel suppliers in 2024, after it ranked 11th in 2023. Shell ranked ninth in 2023, but dropped out of the top 10 in 2024. The companies which remained in the top 10 were BP, Chevron, Eng Hua, Equatorial, Global Energy, Petrochina International, Sinopec Fuel Oil, TFG Marine and Vitol. Among these, Equatorial, TFG Marine and Chinese suppliers, Petrochina International and Sinopec Fuel Oil, made up the top ranks by volumes in 2023. There were a total of 41 conventional bunker suppliers in Singapore in 2023. By Mahua Chakravarty and Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans

The delay to finalising the country's nuclear goals may make it unfeasible to build sufficient capacity before current assets expire, writes Evelyn Lee London, 15 January (Argus) — South Korea's energy industry has faced a whirlwind of challenges since the impeachment of now-suspended president Yoon Suk-Yeol, with the political turmoil stalling a crucial review of its energy strategy in the national assembly. The government is now seeking to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to hasten the plan's review. Yoon's surprise declaration of martial law last month was reversed within six hours owing to bipartisan political pressure and widespread protests, which resulted in a national assembly vote in favour of the president's impeachment and his subsequent arrest on 15 January. Yoon is suspended from office pending a ruling by the country's constitutional court — due within six months of the impeachment vote on 14 December. If six out of nine justices vote to uphold the impeachment, Yoon will be removed from office and presidential elections will be held within 60 days. South Korea acted quickly following the martial law declaration, but government action has overall been slowed down by the political turmoil — including on energy policy. The latest draft of its long-overdue electricity plan was completed in June and scheduled to be submitted to the Trade, Industry, Energy, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Start-ups Committee of the national assembly by the end of last year. But the committee has suspended general meetings since 19 December, according to schedules released on its website. The long-term electricity plan is renewed every two years and serves as a basis for business planning, especially for state-controlled companies. Gas incumbent Kogas' procurement strategy has historically reflected the electricity plan. The latest draft lays out Seoul's intention to build three more nuclear reactors by 2038. But planning and construction would take nearly 14 years, according to the government, so the delay in finalising the plan could result in a power supply shortfall by 2038 — when 9.15GW of existing nuclear capacity is set to expire. Nuclear fallout The government may opt to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to get the draft electricity plan seen by the committee — which must review the plan, although it is not required to approve it. And less nuclear capacity could increase the need for more gas-fired capacity. The energy ministry pledged on 8 January to finalise the plan by June, after which it will pass related bills including the power grid act, but it did not say how it intends to progress the plan in the national assembly. The Korean Nuclear Society (KNS) responded on 9 January, accusing the government of allegedly planning to revise its nuclear objectives so it can speed up the plan's progress. The government's intent to revise its nuclear goals "without any scientific basis" shows that the electricity plan is just a "political bargaining tool that can vary depending on political interests", the KNS said. This threatens the stability of the South Korean electricity market, it added. The ministry did not respond to Argus' request for comment. But the alleged revision may not have been solely driven by political motives. Seoul may have missed the window of opportunity for approving new nuclear capacity in the timescale required, judging by the 14-year timeline for planning and construction. It remains unclear how the government would offset any reduction in its nuclear ambitions, but South Korea's slow grid development may leave little alternative other than boosting gas-fired capacity. Under the current draft electricity plan, gas-fired output would account for a 25.1pc (160.8TWh) share of total generation in 2030 and 11.1pc (78.1TWh) in 2038, up from 22.9pc (142.4TWh) and 9.3pc (62.3TWh), respectively, in the previous plan. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

15/01/25

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15/01/25

IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA has made a marginal increase to its forecast for global refinery runs this year, driven by the "recent resilient performance" of US and European refineries. The Paris-based energy watchdog now expects global crude throughput of 83.4mn b/d in 2025, whereas its previous projection was 83.3mn b/d. At the same time, it has trimmed its estimate for 2024 runs by 20,000 b/d to 82.7mn b/d on the back of downgrades in Asian throughput. The slight upgrade to the 2025 forecast assumes that US and European refineries extend their recent resilience through the first quarter. But "even as we turn more positive on the short-term outlook, it is important to acknowledge that European refineries remain under pressure from shifting trade patterns, rising carbon costs, higher energy outlays and looming capacity closures", the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). OECD throughput is forecast to fall by 370,000 b/d to 35.7mn b/d this year "as capacity closures in the United States and Europe drag on activity levels", the agency said. But it marks an upwards revision from last month's projection for the OECD of 35.6mn b/d in 2025. The IEA sees non-OECD refinery runs rising by 1mn b/d to 47.6mn b/d this year. This is a downwards adjustment of 80,000 b/d from the last OMR, but the IEA also trimmed its estimate for 2024 non-OECD throughput by the same amount — so the growth rate is unchanged. The 2025 forecasts for India, China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Singapore have all been cut compared with last month's OMR. The IEA now expects Chinese runs to rise by 240,000 b/d to 14.8mn b/d this year. Last month's forecast had Chinese throughput increasing to 14.9mn b/d. "2025 could prove to be another challenging year for Chinese independent refineries, despite increased crude import quotas, as higher import duties squeeze profitability and recent US sanctions impact access to Russian and Iranian barrels," the agency said. The IEA has raised its 2025 forecast for Nigerian throughput by 60,000 b/d to 460,000 b/d, citing the restart of state-owned NNPC's Warri and Port Harcourt refineries and the start-up of Dangote's 150,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracking unit. But it noted that challenges remain in terms of crude supply. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

Calgary, 15 January (Argus) — Any retaliation by Canada to tariffs imposed by the US would be designed to apply political pressure, the country's energy minister said today in Washington, DC, but a potential tariff war between the two countries is a lose-lose proposition. "We are not interested in something that escalates," Canada's minister of energy and natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson said in a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But until tariffs are imposed, Canada does not know how it will need to respond. Canada will likely focus on goods that are "important to American producers," but also those for which Canada has an alternative. "The point in the response is to apply political pressure," said Wilkinson, who advocated for stronger trade ties between the two countries byway of energy and critical minerals. US president-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25pc tariff on all imports from both Canada and Mexico when he takes office on 20 January. So far he has not signaled any plans to exempt any goods, including oil and gas. Alberta's premier Danielle Smith and now Wilkinson are promoting the flow of more crude to ensure North America's energy security. "We can enhance the flow of Canadian crude oil from Alberta," said Wilkinson by boosting capacity on pipelines like Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline crude export system. "The US cannot be energy dominant without Canadian energy." The incoming administration would be open to such pipeline expansions, said Heather Reams, president of Washington-based non-profit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. "It's something that the Trump administration and Republican members in Congress would be interested in revisiting to ensure that there is a steady flow of the energy that's needed to fuel our mutual economies," Reams said on the panel. Enbridge's Mainline moves Canadian crude from Alberta to the US Midcontinent, where Wilkinson expects consumers will be faced with higher gasoline prices — adding as much as 75¢/USG at the pump — should tariffs be imposed. Americans could also see higher food prices if tariffs are put on potash, a fertilizer mined in Saskatchewan and used by US farmers, she said. Development of critical minerals like germanium, gallium and others should be pursued further to minimize the US' exposure and dependence on China, according to Wilkinson, echoing comments made by Ontario premier Doug Ford on 13 January in his own appeal to enhancing trade ties with the US. "We cannot be in a position where China can simply manipulate the market," said Wilkinson, citing that country's dumping of nickel. "We should form a true energy and minerals alliance." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

New York, 15 January (Argus) — With marine fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulations tightening, shipowners are looking for financially feasible biofuel options. Argus spoke with Leonidas Kanonis , director for communications and analysis at European waste-based and advanced biofuels association (Ewaba), about biofuels for bunkering. Edited highlights follow. Do you think that the Netherlands government will scrap the HBE-G bio-tickets that it has been allocating for marine fuel for use by ocean-going vessels? HBEs are not disappearing in 2025, and the Dutch system will continue as normal, including HBE-G bio tickets. In 2026, the plan is that HBEs will be scrapped altogether, when the Dutch system switches to an Emissions Reduction Obligation. The Emissions Reduction Obligation would be a transposition of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) spanning all transport sectors and HBEs would not exist under such a system. Annex IX of REDIII lists sustainable biofuel feedstocks for advanced biofuels (Part A) and waste-based biofuels (Part B). Under the proposed REDIII, EWABA is advocating those fuels made from feedstocks listed under Annex IX B, which include used cooking oil and animal fat, be allowed into the sustainability criteria for maritime transport. Allowing only "advanced" feedstocks listed under Annex IX A would put the Dutch bunkering sector at a cost-and-supply disadvantage compared with non-EU ports. The Annex IX B exclusion could also put the Netherlands in danger of not hitting its maritime sector target, which rises from a 3.6pc reduction in GHGs in 2026 to 8.2pc in 2030. Annex IX B biodiesel can bridge the gap while advanced technologies such as ammonia and hydrogen are more widely deployed. The EU imposed anti-dumping taxes on Chinese biodiesel imports in mid-August. What has been the effect on European biodiesel producers? Following the Chinese anti-dumping duties (ADDs), we have seen an uptick in domestic European waste-based biodiesel prices, widening the spread between the end product and the European domestic feedstock itself. On the other hand, on 1 December, the Chinese government cancelled the export tax rebate for used cooking oil (UCO), disincentivizing Chinese exporters and making Chinese UCO more expensive for European buyers. It is still early to say what the trend for 2025 will be, but as an industry we are optimistic about increased European biodiesel production. Over the past two years, our members have been suffering, mostly operating at sub-optimal production levels or forced to shut down production. In 2025, there is reserved optimism that the market will improve due to: the ADDs to Chinese biodiesel, the 2025 FuelEU maritime regulation, and the introduction of the EU Database for Biofuels introduced in 2024, which tracks the lifecycle of biofuels and strengthens transparency. Are there other threats next year that are facing the European waste-based and advanced biofuels producers? Overall challenges for the market would be demand for feedstock from competing industries, largely the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market with the introduction of the ReFuelEU mandate, but also competing regions as the US imported huge amounts of waste feedstocks from China last year, while southeast Asian and UAE countries promote their own bio-blending targets. Do you think Donald Trump's presidency would affect Europe's biofuel markets? We expect the Trump administration to possibly limit feedstock imports from outside the US, boosting the sales of local soybean and other crop feedstocks to produce domestic HVO, SAF and biodiesel. At the same time, the US government has noted they will impose duties on imports coming from anywhere, with China experiencing the most considerable level of duties of up to 60pc. For example, an import tax on European and UK biodiesel would mean that more fuel is available to fulfill the European and UK mandates, as the US is also relying on HVO and FAME from Europe and the UK to fulfill its own mandates. Biofuel for bunkering has been a popular low-carbon fuel option among container ship companies. But oil tanker owners and dry bulk carrier owners are slower to embrace biofuels. Do you see this changing? At the moment, most biofuels used in shipping are indeed for container ship companies that could more easily afford higher prices of bio components. The biofuels industry is receiving a lot of interest from tanker or carrier owners but for lower biofuel blends compared to container ship companies. Container vessels are willing to buy higher biofuel blends and are interested in B100. Oil tankers are focusing more on B15 and higher bio blends to comply with the minimum GHG reduction targets possible. But as the GHG reduction targets on the FuelEU rise, this will of course change as well. In 2030, what do you project will be the demand for biofuels for bunkering in Europe? As an estimation, we expect waste biofuels bunkering demand in Europe to surpass 2-2.5mn tons by 2030. Specification-wise, what are some of biofuel properties that ship owners need to look out for? We don't believe waste-based and advanced biodiesel fuel properties have considerable issues for ship operators. Especially for blends up to B30, there is nothing to worry about. For higher blends, viscosity and stability are the ones that I believe are more important. Storage time is also important to consider due to lower oxidative stability of FAME compared with fossil diesel alternatives that could be stored longer term. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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