Latest market news

Coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H 2021

  • Market: Coal, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas
  • 21/09/21

The ratio between coal stocks and daily consumption or use across key global hubs almost halved on the year by the end of June according to Argus analysis, amid recovering demand and a sluggish supply response this year.

Coal stocks — expressed as the number days of local consumption or throughput — were 47pc lower on the year at less than 40 days in June, nearing the bottom of the 2017-19 range. This is according to Argus analysis based on available data for the US, China, India, Japan, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) transshipment hub in Europe and the Richards Bay Coal Terminal in South Africa, and weighted according to each market's share of the combined inventory.

The annual decline compared with the middle of 2020 reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021, which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher and remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating season.

The so-called days-of-use indicator shows how many days current stocks would last, based on the latest rate of consumption. It provides more context about the fundamental supply-demand balance than looking at the absolute level of coal stocks, as it also factors changes in consumption trends.

There are two main drivers behind the decline in global days of use. First, global supply constraints in 2021 driven by inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity and mining disruption from safety checks, strikes and protests. Second, a compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices. Both factors have created a perfect storm for a tight global fundamental balance so far in 2021.

China and India stocks wane on firm coal burn

Chinese power utility stocks account for around 36pc of the total sample in Argus' calculation, and therefore have a large influence on the aggregate figure.

Mining accidents, continuing safety checks and the unofficial ban on imports from Australia have all hampered supply in China this year, while thermal power generation, which is largely coal-fired, has surged with the wider economy during China's post-pandemic recovery.

As a result, Chinese utility stocks have plummeted from 17 days of use in October 2020 to only seven days in March 2021 and hovered below 10 days until June, the lowest range since March 2017.

Similarly, in India, coal-fired generation has grown strongly in 2021, pressuring outright and days-of-use stocks. At the end of August, the government urged utilities to consider increasing imports to boost availability.

The power ministry has also asked state-controlled coal producer Coal India (CIL) to meet its supply targets to help build the stocks, well ahead of the winter season when coal transportation is also affected by fog. CIL has already said it will raise supplies to power plants with low coal stocks.

The tight stock balance in both China and India could lend additional and early support to spot demand ahead of the upcoming winter season, and poses an upside risk to prices if stocks remain low and leave the market exposed in the event of unusually cold conditions.

Strong Asian premium pares ARA supply

Days of use at the ARA hub in northwest Europe halved on the year in June but remain relatively high at 100 days.

Absolute port stocks are down on the year, while coal-fired generation has recovered on gas-to-coal switching and subdued renewables output, pressuring the days-of-use indicator. But northwest European coal burn remains much lower than in the years before the pandemic, meaning days-of-use stocks are still relatively high by historic standards.

In addition to supply constraints affecting Colombian exports to Europe, Asian coal markets held a wide premium to Europe in the first half of the year, which helped to draw some flexible supply out of the Atlantic and limited the recovery in overall supply. This helped to accelerate the decline in days-of-use stocks in northwest Europe.

Global coal stocks mn t

Global days of use, API2 month-ahead swaps (RHS) days, $/t

Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up


04/11/24
News
04/11/24

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

Washington, 4 November (Argus) — Negotiations to amend US rail labor contracts are becoming increasingly complicated as railroads split on negotiating tactics, potentially stalling operations at some carriers. The multiple negotiating pathways are reigniting fears of 2022, when some unions agreed to new contracts and others were on the verge of striking before President Joe Biden ordered them back to work . Shippers feared freight delays if strikes occurred. This round, two railroads are independently negotiating with unions. Most of the Class I railroads have traditionally used the National Carriers' Conference Committee to jointly negotiate contracts with the nation's largest labor unions. Eastern railroad CSX has already reached agreements with labor unions representing 17 job categories, which combined represent nearly 60pc of its unionized workforce. "This is the right approach for CSX," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said last month. Getting the national agreements on wages and benefits done will then let CSX work with employees on efficiency, safety and other issues, he said. Western carrier Union Pacific is taking a similar path. "We look forward to negotiating a deal that improves operating efficiency, helps provide the service we sold to our customers" and enables the railroad to thrive, it said. Some talks may be tough. The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) and Union Pacific are in court over their most recent agreement. But BLET is meeting with Union Pacific chief executive Jim Vena next week, and with CSX officials the following week. Traditional group negotiation is also proceeding. BNSF, Norfolk Southern and the US arm of Canadian National last week initiated talks under the National Carriers' Conference Committee to amend existing contracts with 12 unions. Under the Railway Labor Act, rail labor contracts do not expire, a regulation designed to keep freight moving. But if railroads and unions again go months without reaching agreements, freight movements will again be at risk. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Brazil launches reforestation plan


04/11/24
News
04/11/24

Brazil launches reforestation plan

Sao Paulo, 4 November (Argus) — The Brazilian government launched its plan to reforest 12mn hectares (29.6mn acres) with native vegetation by 2030 as part of its efforts to meet its emissions-reductions target under the Paris Agreement. Of the 12mn ha of reforestation projected, 9mn ha will be on properties currently not in compliance with the 2012 forestry code, which requires property owners to maintain standing forest on a percentage of their land. Depending on the biome, property owners are required to preserve 20-80pc of native vegetation. The government estimates that nearly 24mn ha of privately owned land is currently not in compliance with the forestry code. The plan also foresees 2mn ha of reforestation on public lands, including conservation preserves and areas controlled by indigenous peoples. The remaining 1mn ha of reforestation will take place on degraded land which will be converted to be used for low-carbon agriculture. The government will provide financing and technical support for the reforestation program. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Oil services upturn takes a pause for breath


04/11/24
News
04/11/24

Oil services upturn takes a pause for breath

New York, 4 November (Argus) — The boom in demand for oil field services is showing signs of wavering in the short term as international customers signal greater caution around spending and the outlook for US shale remains challenged. Upstream spending growth in the North American onshore market is expected to be flat in 2025, with low natural gas prices, drilling efficiencies and further consolidation among producers in the shale patch all exerting downward pressure. Given a mixed international outlook, one bright spot will be offshore markets, and deepwater in particular, according to investment management firm Evercore ISI. "The solid growth years of 2023 and 2024 are over as the cycle resets," senior managing director James West says. "We view 2025 as an aberration in a long-term, albeit slower, growth cycle." In the near term, the sector's attention will be focused on spending plans by top producers including state-run Saudi Aramco and Brazil's Petrobras, as well as any signs of a potential recovery in Chinese oil demand given the government's latest stimulus efforts to kick-start growth. The sector has had to contend with more than $200bn of shale mergers and acquisitions over the past year, which has shrunk the pool of available customers, and led to oil field services providers beginning their own round of consolidation. Moreover, with capital discipline remaining the rallying cry, significant productivity gains have enabled producers to do more with less. Its immediate challenges were put into stark contrast this week by oil's renewed plunge, this time on the back of Israel's decision to spare Iran's energy infrastructure from retaliatory strikes. SLB, the biggest oil field services contractor, has attributed recent price volatility to concerns over an oversupplied market owing to higher output from non-Opec producers, as well as questions over when the cartel will return barrels to the market and weak economic growth. That spurred some customers to adopt a "cautionary approach" when it came to activity and spending in the third quarter. Gas to the rescue But SLB remains upbeat over the long-term outlook, given the current emphasis on energy security, a key role for natural gas in the energy transition, and expectations that oil will remain a "large part" of the energy mix for decades to come. Gas investment remains robust in international markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and the North Sea. "While short-cycle oil investments have been more challenged, long-cycle deepwater projects globally and most capacity expansion projects in the Middle East remain economically and strategically favourable," SLB chief executive Olivier Le Peuch says. Exploration successes in frontier regions from Namibia to Suriname are also unlocking vast reserves that only serve to bolster confidence in the offshore market. Global offshore investment decisions will approach $100bn this year and in the next 2-3 years, adding up to more than $500bn for 2023-26, according to Le Peuch, representing a "growth engine for the industry going forward". Meanwhile, Baker Hughes expects to capitalise on a growing market for gas infrastructure equipment. The company forecasts natural gas demand will grow by almost 20pc by 2040, with global LNG demand increasing at a faster rate of 75pc. "This is the age of gas," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says. The top services firms see limited short-term growth prospects for North America, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico. Hydraulic fracturing services provider Liberty Energy plans a temporary reduction in its fleet in response to slower customer activity and market pressures. And SLB says any potential pick-up in gas rigs could be offset by a further decline in oil rigs owing to efficiencies. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexican hydrogen regulatory efforts gain ground


01/11/24
News
01/11/24

Mexican hydrogen regulatory efforts gain ground

Mexico City, 1 November (Argus) — The Mexican hydrogen association (AMH2) has made significant strides in recent discussions with regulators and officials, unveiling a comprehensive roadmap for industrial hydrogen adoption. The group's report estimates there will be demand for about 392,189 tonnes (t) of hydrogen per year across seven major industries during Mexico's pilot hydrogen development phase. This includes sector-specific hydrogen demands of 148,350 t/yr from oil refining through 10 potential applications; 107,325 t/yr for mining; 55,877 t/yr for hydrogen blending in natural gas; 23,932 t/yr in the metals industry; 35,040 t/yr tied to ammonia production; 15,265 t/yr for public transport; and 6,400 t/yr for methanol production. AMH2's strategy urges the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum to designate a lead ministry for hydrogen development, prioritize green hydrogen production and introduce incentives for project financing, technology development and energy transition initiatives. Additionally, it calls for regulatory adaptations to facilitate hydrogen's integration into Mexico's natural gas infrastructure, including quality, transportation, distribution and safety standards, especially for industrial equipment. Legal reforms to support hydrogen development will also be needed, according to the report, targeting laws governing mining, water, hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, energy transition, environmental protection, electric power, bioenergy and geothermal power. For green hydrogen — generated with renewable energy — the focus would be on the latter five areas. These efforts align with Mexico's long-term energy plan (Prodesen 2023-2037), which envisions converting 12 combined cycle power plants, totaling 1.024GW, to operate on a 70pc natural gas and 30pc hydrogen blend between 2033 and 2036. AMH2 president Israel Hurtado said although Mexico's pipeline infrastructure could handle up to a 15pc green hydrogen blend, achieving a 30pc blend would require further technological advances expected over the next decade. Prodesen also identifies regions for hydrogen injection into pipeline networks, including Sonora, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Baja California and the Yucatan peninsula. Yet new regulations will be crucial to establish a robust framework for hydrogen blending in existing infrastructure. The Sheinbaum's administration has committed to reducing carbon emissions and promoting clean energy, Hurtado said, with a $13.5bn investment pledge in renewables over six years and a target for 45pc of national power from renewables by 2030. AMH2 has built early connections with Sheinbaum's team, including Jorge Islas, her energy and climate advisor during the campaign, who now heads the energy ministry's (Sener) energy transition unit and supports green hydrogen initiatives. AMH2 leaders also recently met with energy regulator (CRE) president Leopoldo Melchi and commissioner Walter Jimenez, who expressed strong interest in hydrogen regulation. The association and CRE agreed to form a technical workgroup to develop clean hydrogen regulations collaboratively. Looking ahead, AMH2 plans to meet with energy minister Luz Elena Gonzalez and Mexico's economy ministry to further discuss the hydrogen strategy. But CRE's workgroup is on hold pending potential legislative reforms that could reorganize Mexico's energy regulators under Sener's supervision. Projects in development AMH2 has identified 16 hydrogen projects in Mexico, with eight in various development stages and eight announced. Primarily focused on green hydrogen, these projects represent an estimated $19bn investment. The largest, Helax, is a $10bn green hydrogen production facility in Oaxaca, connected to the Interoceanic Trans-Isthmus Corridor. AMH2 anticipates production to start within two years following initial permitting. The roadmap suggests that, even if only six projects are operational by 2030, the sector could generate 3.351GW and attract $1.8bn in investments. These projects are projected to bring in $2.5bn in revenue over six years and yield $1.9bn in tax contributions. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more