Chinese oil demand to peak before 2030: CNPC

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
28/12/21

China's petrochemical needs will fuel oil demand growth while a slowdown in incremental oil demand in the transportation sector will contribute to a peak in overall oil consumption before 2030, according to the latest forecast by state-controlled CNPC's research arm the Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI).

Chinese oil demand is expected to peak at 18.2mn b/d (780mn t/yr) before 2030, with the petrochemicals sector driving oil demand through 2030. But oil demand is forecast to drop to 8.8mn b/d by 2050 and 5.4mn b/d by 2060.

This will exacerbate the oversupply in refining capacity after 2030, requiring refiners to increase production of higher-end products, rather than transportation fuels, as part of energy transition efforts, the ETRI said. Beijing has already outlined a crude distillation capacity limit of 20mn b/d for Chinese refining capacity in 2025.

Electrification, or the use of electric vehicles, will be especially rapid in the transportation sector between 2031-50. This will reduce gasoline and diesel demand, although petrochemicals demand is still expected to be relatively stable during this period.

Demand for oil products including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel could peak at 8.4mn b/d by 2025 and decline to 1.3mn b/d by 2060, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and development of railways. Chinese apparent products demand, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, averaged 6.9mn b/d in January-November, data from the National Bureau of Statistics and Customs Bureau show.

China's auto fleet still has room to grow, the ETRI said. NEVs will account for 10pc of China's total auto fleet in 2028, and rise to 80pc in 2052. NEVs currently account for just 2.3pc of vehicles in China.

China's auto sales in 2022 are expected to rise by 5.4pc from a year earlier to 27.5mn, with NEVs leading the increase, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).

Sales of NEVs are forecast to rise by 47pc to 5mn in 2022, the CAAM said.

The country's primary energy consumption could also peak during 2030-35, at around 6bn t of standard coal equivalent (tce), then decline to 5.7bn tce by 2060 as renewables production rises, according to the ETRI. China only just met its 2020 consumption target of 5bn t tce with demand of 4.98bn tce.

The ETRI has also forecast Chinese coal demand to peak by 2025, and gas demand by 2040.

The institute expects Chinese crude production to remain at around 4mn b/d before 2035 but for natural gas output to grow at a faster pace, reaching 250bn m³/yr by 2030 and 350bn m³/yr by 2060. Chinese crude output averaged 100,000 b/d or 3pc higher on the year at 3.94mn b/d in January-November. Gas output rose by 8.9pc on year to 186bn m³ in January-November.

For 2021, national crude output is expected at 3.98mn b/d and gas output at 206bn m³, the National Energy Administration said.

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Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Democratic commissioner Willie Phillips has resigned from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) after serving more than three years at an agency responsible for permitting natural gas infrastructure and regulating wholesale power markets. Phillips' departure will clear the way for President Donald Trump to nominate a replacement at FERC, who once confirmed by the US Senate would provide Republicans a 3-2 majority for the first time since 2021. Phillips, whose term was not set to expire until June 2026, had a reputation for negotiating bipartisan deals on contentious orders involving pipelines and power market issues in the two years he served as FERC's chairman under former president Joe Biden. Phillips has yet to release a statement explaining his abrupt resignation. But Trump has already fired Democratic commissioners and board members at other agencies that, like FERC, are structured as independent from the White House. Two of the fired Democrats, who were serving at the US Federal Trade Commission, have filed a lawsuit that argues their removal was unlawful under a 1935 decision by the US Supreme Court. The White House did not respond to a question on whether it had pressured Phillips to resign. FERC chairman Mark Christie, a Republican, offered praise for Phillips as a "dedicated and selfless public servant" who sought to "find common ground and get things done to serve the public interest". Christie for months has been downplaying the threats to FERC's independence caused by Trump's executive order that asserts sweeping control over FERC's agenda. Energy companies have come to depend on FERC in serving as independent arbiter in disputes over pipeline tariffs and electricity markets, without the consideration of political preferences of the White House. Former FERC chairman Neil Chatterjee, a Republican who served in Trump's first term, said in a social media post it was "disappointing" to see Phillips pushed out after he "played it straight" in his work at the agency. As chairman, Phillips was able to authorize a "massive LNG project" — the 28mn t/yr CP2 project — at a time when Biden had sought to pause LNG licensing, Chatterjee said. Separately, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 21 April, after the US Senate voted 52-44 earlier this month in favor of his confirmation. Atkins was previously the chief executive of financial consulting firm Patomak Global Partners and served as an SEC commissioner from 2002-08. Republicans will now have a 3-1 majority at the SEC. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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22/04/25

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22/04/25

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Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants

22/04/25

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22/04/25

Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants

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US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions

21/04/25

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21/04/25

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