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Europe would struggle to replace lost Russian products

  • Market: Oil products
  • 24/01/22

Any US sanctions targeting the energy sector in retaliation for Russian military action against Ukraine — something Moscow denies it is planning — could have a significant impact on European oil products markets. Washington has threatened to impose strong financial sanctions on Russia and — if there is agreement with European allies — to target Russia's oil and gas exports.

Russian supplies account for 50-60pc of Europe's 4mn-6mn t/month seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil. The next two largest suppliers are Saudi Arabia and India, accounting for 10-20pc and 5-15pc of imports, respectively. In a worst-case scenario, in which a total embargo on Russian exports is imposed, Europe would need to treble its imports from those two countries to make up the shortfall.

Russian ports loaded 5.05mn t of vacuum gasoil (VGO) for European destinations in 2021, according to data from analytics company Vortexa. Russia is currently the only large-scale supplier of VGO to Europe and refiners would probably struggle to replace these supplies, making it difficult for them to cover any diesel shortfall by running hydrocrackers at higher rates.

Saudi Arabia is the world's next-largest exporter of VGO with 1.72mn t loading in 2021, but Saudi supply will tighten as the new 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery brings further secondary units online. Meanwhile, closures of simpler refineries in Europe over the past two years have reduced regional output of the product. European ports loaded less than 1mn t of VGO in 2021, under a fifth of the volume exported in 2019.

Russia is also Europe's largest supplier of residual fuel oil. Around 9mn t — or 41pc — of the fuel oil delivered to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading and refining hub came from Russian Baltic ports last year, according to Vortexa. It says shipments of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) — much of it Russian in origin — to Asia, Africa, North America and the Middle East were roughly 3mn-3.5mn t of in 2021.

European refiners' ability to produce HSFO could be limited if supplies of Russian Urals crude are disrupted. Tight fuel oil supply could also hamper European refiners' ability to increase diesel output using coker units. Many have been buying increasing volumes of Russian fuel oil to serve as coker feedstock.

Any obstruction of Russian naphtha supply to northwest Europe would cause problems for both gasoline blenders and petrochemical producers. The Baltic port of Ust-Luga is the single largest provider of naphtha for delivery to northwest Europe, accounting for around 500,000 t/month or a third of total naphtha flows into the region in 2021, according to Vortexa.

European refiners could try to compensate for any reduction in Russian product supply by increasing refinery runs. If they had to replace lost diesel supply from Russia themselves, for example, European refineries would have to raise runs by around 10 percentage points taking them to almost 90pc of total 15mn-16mn b/d capacity — the highest utilisation rate this century.

But increasing runs would be difficult if supplies of Russian crude were disrupted. And with continued refinery closures expected in Europe and regular maintenance work limiting throughputs, domestic producers' ability to cover any shortfall may be limited.


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01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February


01/04/25
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01/04/25

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

Singapore, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore's base oil imports increased for the third consecutive month in February, GTT data show, supported by stable demand in the city state. Import growth slowed in February, in line with a drop in industrial performance. The country's manufacturing output fell by 1.3pc on the year, and by 7.5pc on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, according to data from the Economic Development Board. The overall manufacturing sector grew for the 18th consecutive month, but PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.7 in February, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management show, in line with growing uncertainties over global trade flows. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Supplies from South Korea recovered from January's five-month low, in line with higher exports from the northeast Asian country, but remained below the five-year monthly average of 12,300t. Lower South Korean volumes were balanced by higher receipts of Taiwanese cargoes, which were likely boosted by delays in customs clearance a month earlier. South Korea and Taiwan are major producers of Group II base oils. Zero imports were recorded from Japan for the third consecutive month. Exports from the Group I supplier have fallen ahead of a series of plant maintenances by Japanese refiners ENEOS and Idemitsu that will affect around 925,000t/yr of refining capacity over February-November. Increased Saudi Arabian cargoes made up for the shortfall in Japanese volumes, with imports recorded for the 10th consecutive month. Saudi Arabia produces Group I and II base oils, but supplies to Singapore likely comprise of mainly Group I volumes because of the regional shortage from permanent plant closures in Japan. By Tara Tang Singapore's base oil imports t Feb'25 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Feb'25 y-o-y ± % Qatar 23,135.0 -12.2 22.6 49,488.0 74.2 South Korea 9,090.0 30.2 -18.2 16,074.0 -9.3 Taiwan 12,458.0 NA 825.6 12,458.0 119.0 Saudi Arabia 5,306.0 76.9 5.7 8,306.0 65.5 Thailand 5,046.0 -16.4 152.8 11,081.0 234.3 Total 77,915.0 1.9 75.7 154,392.0 129.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec


28/03/25
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28/03/25

US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — December US base oil and lubricant exports fell nearly 10pc from year-earlier levels on lower supply and more attractive domestic pricing. The decline in export volumes was driven by weaker demand in Europe as buyers there worked to draw down inventories. Demand also fell in Brazil as a key domestic producer lowered its prices. Several US refiners were uninterested in lowering base oil prices to sell into the export market in December. Multiple turnarounds and less light-grade supplies made inventory building more attractive. Other refiners exported higher volumes in November in preparation for tax assessment season in the end of December. Exports to Mexico were the highest on record for the month of December and the second highest monthly total for 2024. Base oil exports to West coast South America fell for a third consecutive month on muted buying interest because of sufficient domestic supplies. By Karly Lamm Dec US base oil exports unit 24-Dec m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Mexico 1,990,000 13.1 13.2 Brazil 195,000 -26.7 -70.0 India 118,000 -8.5 -4.8 Europe 326,000 5.2 -43.4 WSCA 169,000 -41.9 11.0 Monthly total 3,848,000 -1.0 -9.9 Energy Information Administration (EIA) *Total includes all countires, not just those listed *WCSA includes Chile, Ecuador and Peru *Europe includes Belgium, France and the Netherlands Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict

London, 28 March (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) has begun an inquiry into whether the country's airport capacity expansion could be achieved in line with its climate and environment targets. "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions, and on the face of it, any expansion in the sector will make net zero even more elusive," EAC chair Toby Perkins said. Any expansions must meet strict climate and environment commitments, the UK government has said. The government in January expressed support for a third runway at London's Heathrow airport — the country's largest. UK transport minister Heidi Alexander said in February that she was "minded to approve" an expansion at London's Gatwick airport, ahead of a final decision in October. The expansion would involve Gatwick making its northern runway operational. It is currently only used as a back-up option. The government is also "contemplating decisions on airport expansion projects at London Luton… and on the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield," Perkins said. "It is possible — but very difficult — for the airport expansion programme to be consistent with environmental goals," Perkins said. "We look forward to exploring how the government believes this can be achieved." The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Its carbon budgets — a cap on emissions over a certain period — are also legally binding. The government must this year set levels for the UK's seventh carbon budget , which will cover the period 2038-42. The committee has invited written submissions on the possible airport expansions and net zero, with a deadline of 24 April. It will report in the autumn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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