The US administration is restoring waivers that enable foreign companies to work with Iran's civilian nuclear installations, as Washington and Tehran approach the finish line in talks aimed at lifting curbs on Iran's oil exports in exchange for reinstating restrictions on its nuclear program.
"We decided to restore a sanctions waiver to enable third party participation in nuclear non-proliferation and safety projects in Iran due to growing non-proliferation concerns, in particular with respect to increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium in Iran," a senior State Department official said today.
The action does not remove US sanctions against the sale of Iranian oil.
Granting the waiver could facilitate technical discussions "in the final weeks of talks" to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the official said, while cautioning that "this is not a signal that we are about to reach an understanding" on restoring the nuclear deal.
While indirect US-Iranian talks at the political level have taken a break, expert-level discussions continue with mediation of the EU and other remaining parties to the agreement to hash out a sequence of steps required for lifting sanctions and restoring curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
Among the thorniest issues to be addressed is what to do with the inventory of enriched uranium that Iran has built since 2019. When the JCPOA went into effect in 2016, Iran allowed Russia to remove some of the dual use nuclear material to bring it into compliance with the agreement. Civilian nuclear research in Iran is conducted in many of the same facilities that the US and the UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA have have identified as allowing Tehran to make advances on its theoretical path to a nuclear weapon. Tehran denies pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Former president Donald Trump's administration reimposed sanctions on Iran's civilian nuclear program in May 2020, doing away with the last remnants of the JCPOA. The Trump administration kept the waivers in place until that time, despite exiting from the JCPOA in November 2018, in part because it provided a degree of visibility into Iran's nuclear program. Former secretary of state Mike Pompeo justified reimposing those sanctions by citing advances in Iran's nuclear program. Tehran began selectively flouting JCPOA curbs on its nuclear program in May 2019, after the US instituted a policy of allowing "zero exports" of oil from Iran. That policy proved unsuccessful in zeroing out Iran's oil exports but gave Iran the pretext to restart its nuclear program. US officials say Iran is now "within weeks" of reaching a theoretical threshold of having enough material for a functioning nuclear weapon.
"The Trump administration provided a similar waiver for years, even after its reckless decision to leave the JCPOA, in recognition of this non-proliferation value," the US official said. "We are now returning to that status quo."
A restoration of the deal in its original form could realistically add 1.6mn b/d of Iranian crude to global supply within six to nine months of its implementation. If talks are successfully concluded, the timeline cited by US diplomats would suggest Iran's full reintegration in global oil markets by late 2022 or early 2023.
As talks move into the final stretch, President Joe Biden's administration is facing resistance not only from the Republicans but also members of the president's own party in Congress. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) this week criticized the administration for setting aside its initial pledge to pursue a "stronger and longer" deal — with new curbs on Iran's missile program and regional activities — in place of the JCPOA. Menendez has scheduled a closed-door hearing of his committee next week to allow the State Department's special Iran envoy, Rob Malley, to brief senators on the talks.
The senior US military commander in the Middle East, general Frank McKenzie, on 3 February offered unusual, if indirect, criticism of the US-Iran diplomacy as well, echoing the argument about Iran's missile program and noting that Iran would remain a threat to the US interests in the region even if the JCPOA were restored.
