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Conflict pushes oil tanker futures higher

  • Market: Crude oil, Freight, Oil products
  • 24/02/22

Oil tanker futures prices in the April-June period rose by around 20pc on major global routes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine increased the likelihood of sanctions limiting available tonnage supply and altering oil trade flows.

Second quarter forward freight agreements (FFA) on the key Mideast Gulf to Asia-Pacific very large crude carrier (VLCC) route traded as high as Worldscale (WS) 46, up by 23pc from yesterday levels, according to a shipbroker. Gains in the route's spot market were similar, with rates increasing by 22pc to WS39 as shipowners capitalized on uncertainty generated by the conflict to pass rising bunkers costs along to charterers.

FFA rates on the US Gulf coast-Europe Aframax route climbed by 19pc to WS120.

The clean tanker FFA market also saw increases.

Prices for the second-quarter FFA contract for the Mideast Gulf-Asia long range (LR1) clean tanker route firmed by 10pc, according to a shipbroker, while Argus spot market rates on the route were flat at WS100.

As part of its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US placed restrictions on debt and equity financing for Russian state-owned shipowner Sovcomflot, which operates a fleet of 108 oil tankers.

The conflict had the opposite effect on dry bulk futures, which fell today, partially because of a number of conflict-related failed dry bulker bookings.


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18/12/24

US funding bill to allow year-round E15 sales

US funding bill to allow year-round E15 sales

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Argentina touts quarterly economic growth


17/12/24
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17/12/24

Argentina touts quarterly economic growth

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Alabama lock to remain closed until spring


17/12/24
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17/12/24

Alabama lock to remain closed until spring

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Viewpoint: Lower demand to weigh on VLCC market


17/12/24
News
17/12/24

Viewpoint: Lower demand to weigh on VLCC market

London, 17 December (Argus) — The VLCC tanker market is facing downside risk moving into 2025 — after a lacklustre fourth quarter of 2024 — as a result of shrinking Chinese demand and the continuation of the Opec+ crude production cuts. Opec+ has delayed the unwinding of 2.2mn b/d cut once again to April 2025, and this may be pushed further as it "can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions". This would contribute to keep crude tanker demand and rates under pressure in 2025, especially as the Opec+ group will also keep in place two other sets of cuts by an additional year to the end of 2026 . VLCC rates in 2024 have also been under significant pressure in the second half of the year because of a slowdown in Chinese oil demand. China is the key destination for VLCCs. It accounted for nearly 40pc of all VLCC voyages in 2024, with Japan and South Korea accounting for another 20pc. The IEA has kept its oil demand growth for China unchanged at 150,000 b/d for 2024. This is far below the 710,000 b/d it was forecasting in January 2024. And this trend is likely to continue in 2025, being partly the result of an increased uptake of electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail, according to the IEA. China has also cut export tax rebates on oil products to 9pc from the current 13pc, effective 1 December. This may lead to a decrease in Chinese oil product exports, as players may be discouraged by the VAT rebate cuts and reduce Chinese crude imports, weighing on tanker demand. VLCC rates will receive little support from the newbuild market this year. Tankers deliveries in 2025 are scheduled to be lower, with a 1.2pc increase in overall tanker fleet growth, but ship scrapping rates are slowing down. This should keep tanker availability more or less steady in 2025, but rates could come under pressure from an ageing fleet. The average age of a tanker is now 13.2 years. This increase in vessel ages may lead to further rate discounts — which are typically attached to older tankers. The re-election of Donald Trump as US president could have some impacts on the freight markets heading into 2025, but it is unlikely to offer support to the VLCC segment. Trump has planned to ramp up the US's crude production over the course of his second term. This has brought some market participants to question the extent of the increases and the knock on effects. The US primarily uses Aframaxes and Suezmaxes for crude exports and if the new government's policies lead to an increase in crude exports then the volumes would most likely be carried on tankers in these segments. The US also typically exports more to Europe than to Asia-Pacific, which would also mean a proportional increase in the smaller vessel classes rather than VLCCs. The VLCC market will most likely remain under pressure, particularly early in 2025. And some VLCC shipowners have already started to widen their market scope onto traditionally Suezmax routes from west Africa to Europe to increase earnings. But having VLCCs competing with smaller classes could lead to a more sustained slump in other segments, as it would increase tanker supply on these routes and ultimately weigh on rates. This is because increased competitions for cargoes could lead owners to reduce offers in order to secure work. By Rhys van Dinther Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia to invest $9mn in biofuel production projects


17/12/24
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17/12/24

Australia to invest $9mn in biofuel production projects

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