Varo targets net zero by 2040, ups transition funding

Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Emissions, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products
05/07/22

Swiss refiner Varo Energy plans to reach net zero emissions by 2040 and will spend the bulk of a committed $3.5bn in investment between 2022-26 on sustainable energy.

Varo will focus on two sectors — conventional energy and sustainable energy. It expects "high levels of cash flow" from the former, which it will invest in biofuels, biomethane and bio-LNG, hydrogen, e-mobility and carbon removals. Two-thirds of the $3.5bn in planned investment will go to its sustainable energy sector, while it envisages capital expenditure of around $140mn/yr in the conventional fuels segment.

Conventional energy covers manufacturing, storage, trading, marketing and distribution. Varo plans to reduce carbon intensity in this sector, although it emphasised the energy security it provided. The company plans to move "decarbonised assets" into its sustainable energy section.

This "twin-engine" approach will increase Varo's earnings before interest, taxes, interest, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) threefold by 2026 to $1bn, the company said. It aims for sustainable energy to account for more than half of Ebitda in the same timeframe.

Varo has set an interim target of a 40pc absolute reduction in its scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, and a 15pc cut in carbon intensity for scope 3 emissions by 2030.

Low-carbon fuels ambitions

Varo plans to ramp up its biofuels production, with a goal of over 250,000 t/yr of net biofuels capacity by 2026 and a longer-term target of more than 500,000 t/yr. It will build new production facilities and "repurpose older assets," it said. The company also eyes expansion in the biomethane and bio-LNG sector, through acquisition and development.

It aims to develop hydrogen production and will add an electrolyser at the 207,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg refinery in southern Germany to this end. The plant is operated in a joint venture with Russia's state-controlled Rosneft and Italy's Eni.

Varo will also look to increase its stake in the e-mobility market through partnerships and acquisitions, and plans to invest in forestry projects to drive carbon removal. It owns a majority stake in SilviCarbon, which focuses on forest-based carbon removal projects.

Varo is owned by trading firm Vitol and investment firm Carlyle.

By Georgia Gratton

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07/11/24

German energy-intensive industry reduces output

London, 7 November (Argus) — Production from Germany's energy-intensive industrial sectors was lower in September than a year earlier for the first time in seven months, driven by lower generation from the chemicals sector. Energy-intensive industrial production fell by about 3.3pc in September from August, according to data from German statistical office Destatis ( see data and download ). This was driven largely by a 4.3pc fall in output from the chemicals industry. And overall industrial output was about 1.8pc lower than in September 2023, falling year on year for the first time since February this year. The chemicals industry has warned of lower business confidence in the sector since the summer . Energy-intensive industrial branches previously showed signs of a slow recovery, but general manufacturing output across Germany has been on a consistent downward trajectory in recent months ( see manufacturing index graph ). Manufacturing output across all industrial sectors fell on the month by about 2.5pc, having risen on the month by 2.6pc in August. Third-quarter output as a whole was about 2pc lower than in the second quarter. Industrial economic activity has remained "very weak" recently, German economy and climate ministry BMWK said. But it expects a bottom to form in about the new year. BMWK has predicted that Germany will be in a technical recession in 2024 , before a return to 1.1pc GDP growth in 2025. The German economy started on a downward trajectory in 2022 , triggered by higher energy prices on the back of a halt to Russian gas deliveries to the country. And it has since been hampered by other structural factors such as labour shortages and a high bureaucratic burden. Higher gas prices could drive output lower A steady rise in gas prices in recent months could lead industrial firms to curtail domestic industrial production or use LPG instead of gas for some industrial processes. Argus assessed the German THE everyday price at an average of €40.68/MWh in October, about 56pc higher than the €25.98/MWh in February, the index's lowest point this year. Much higher gas prices since 2022 have driven a drop in Germany's industrial gas demand. Gas use in German industry of 256.5TWh in 2023 was about 22pc lower than the pre-crisis 2018-21 average of 327.6TWh, according to Destatis data released earlier this week ( see sector demand graph ). Firms either curtailed production in reaction to higher prices or switched to LPG in some processes in which gas is used as an energy carrier. But some processes, such as the production of ammonia through the Haber-Bosch-synthesis, use methane as a feedstock, which means they cannot shift to LPG as easily. Gas used as a feedstock reacted more strongly to the energy crisis than the gas used for energy. Gas use as a feedstock in the chemicals industry fell by 36pc in 2023 from 2021, while gas use for energy fell by only a quarter. Many fertiliser producers curtailed capacity in 2023, and Europe's largest fertiliser producer, Yara, expects its European gas costs to rise on the year this winter . The producer has already indicated it will shift its focus towards cheaper ammonia production in the US and away from Europe. Industrial gas use on track to rise in 2024 German industrial gas demand is on course to be higher this year than in 2023, based on daily data ending at the end of October. Industrial gas use for production processes other than space heating was 746 GWh/d in January-October, about 8pc higher than a year earlier, according to Argus estimates. But if September's industrial output drops extend to a multi-month trend, this would pull down the average for this year as a whole. Industrial demand typically falls in December when the holiday period limits economic activity, which could push down the average further. And the collapsed German governing coalition is unlikely to send strong recovery signals to the German economy. German market area manager THE publishes a combined dataset for gas demand by industry and the power sector. Argus splits out power-sector gas demand data by assuming operational efficiencies of 39-42pc, in line with fuel use data from Destatis, and factors out seasonal demand swings linked to space heating by looking at analogue trends in the residential and commercial sector ( see demand split graph ). Argus' estimates diverge from Destatis' annual demand data by only about 1-3pc, except for a 6pc gap in 2021 ( see Destatis vs Argus estimates graph ). By Till Stehr German manufacturing index index, 2021=100 German industrial gas demand by sector TWh German industry and power demand split GWh/d Destatis data vs Argus estimates GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German government collapse could delay energy policies

07/11/24

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07/11/24

German government collapse could delay energy policies

London, 7 November (Argus) — The collapse of the German coalition government may delay critical energy security policies currently under discussion, with industry and power associations expressing concerns about potential political standstill on such issues in the coming months. Asked in Berlin on Thursday, energy minister Robert Habeck said he does not expect a general agreement between the remaining red-green government and the conservative Union, which would ensure all further projects in this parliamentary period. And "it remains to be seen" if some decisions could be made together with the opposition on a case-by-case basis where the interests of government and CDU align, Habeck said, although energy security could be one topic where bills could be passed during the minority government phase before the end of this year. CDU politicians including on the state level had "constantly" written him letters to ask when some laws would "finally" be passed, he said, highlighting that while he does not expect "a great deal of helpfulness" he hopes the opposition will work with the government on the basis of how beneficial planning security would be for Germany as a whole. Among the energy security laws waiting to be passed is the draft law that abolishes the German gas storage levy on cross-border interconnection points , while the government has not yet passed its power plant strategy nor submitted the second of its two planned "solar packages". Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday said that among the legislative projects he was trying to pass before the end of the year were "immediate measures for our industry" on which he was currently deliberating with "companies, unions and associations". He said he would quickly try to begin speaking to opposition leader Friedrich Merz around the questions of defence and economic stability, since the economic stabilisation "cannot wait until elections have taken place". The coalition government collapsed after Scholz sacked finance minister Christian Linder , leading the latter to withdraw his party from the ruling coalition. An election looks likely in early 2025. Industry and renewables associations in particular voiced concerns about the timing of the collapse and potential political stagnation, with general leader of chemicals association VCI calling for elections at "the earliest possible time" to avoid "stalemate and political standstill", while the federation of German industries BDI said the country needs a "new, effective government" with a parliamentary majority "as quickly as possible". VCI stressed that Germany needs low energy prices, faster permitting and less bureaucracy, while BDI highlighted that existing market uncertainty is likely to rise with the arrival of the new US administration at the beginning of 2025, when Scholz plans to hold a vote of confidence. And wind association BWE stated that the country "cannot afford to stand still", while solar power association BSW appealed to members of the Bundestag to "make decisions and compromise" on important energy policy issues across party lines. Renewables association BEE called for laws and budget funds already in process for the continuity of energy measures to be adopted by December, stating that "even in a political crisis" the country "cannot afford" stagnation and stalemates. Conservative opposition sister parties CDU and CSU have been polling well ahead across 2024 at around 30-33pc of the vote. While the parties agree with the ruling coalition on several aspects of energy policy — including supporting hydrogen-fired and climate-neutral gas-fired generation — they notably diverge on the topic of nuclear generation. Germany completed its long-awaited nuclear phase-out in April 2023, but the CDU/CSU this week announced it would conduct an investigation into whether the last plants to be decommissioned could feasibly be reactivated. The CDU/CSU also reiterated its support for the development of fourth and fifth-generation nuclear reactors. Nuclear plants are notorious for lengthy construction times, meaning a single parliamentary term may not be enough to see projects through without cross-party support, and the ruling Greens and SPD remain anti-nuclear. The country has also not yet decided on a final storage location for its existing nuclear waste, which will need to be stored there for "one million years", according to the final report from the commission for the storage of highly radioactive waste. But the CDU and SPD have both voiced support for the introduction of a national green gas sales quota , with the CDU/CSU this week highlighting green gas quotas in the gas grid as a way to leverage the market to reach climate goals. By Till Stehr and Helen Senior Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon plunges 31pc

07/11/24

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07/11/24

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon plunges 31pc

Sao Paulo, 7 November (Argus) — Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon biome plunged by around 31pc over the 12 months ending in July — the sharpest decline in over 15 years — bringing the country closer to meeting its target of eliminating deforestation in the region by 2030. Brazil lost 6,288km² (2,404mi²) of Amazon rainforest from August 2023-July 2024, a 31pc decline from 9,064km² in August 2022-July 2023, according to the science and technology ministry's national space institute INPE. The fall in deforestation marks the third consecutive decline in deforestation in the Amazon, after devastation in the region reached a multi-year high of 13,038km² in 2020-21. With the decline, deforestation in the biome reached its lowest level since 2015, when the region recorded losses of 6,207km². Deforestation fell steeply in all of the largest states in the legally defined Amazon region — known as Legal Amazon — except for Roraima, according to data compiled by the Amazon deforestation satellite monitoring system (Prodes). The Legal Amazon contains the nine states in the Amazon basin: Acre, Amapa, Amazonas, Para, Rondonia, Roraima and Tocantins, as well as most of Mato Grosso and Maranhao states. It contains all of Brazil's Amazon biome, 37pc of the cerrado tropical savanna biome and 40pc of the pantanal biome. Para state continued to lead in deforestation with 2,362km², accounting for 37.5pc of total deforestation in the biome. But this year's figure was 28pc lower than the 3,299km² in the prior period. Amazonas state posted the second largest deforestation in the period, with losses reaching 1,143km², accounting for 18pc of the total area of forest lost. Deforestation there fell by 29pc in the 2023-24 cycle from a year earlier. Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest grain-producing state, cut 1,124km² of forests, down by 45pc from the 2,048km² in the previous cycle. The government attributed the decline to increased oversight in the region, with the number of fines issued for illegal deforestation nearly doubling from 1 January 2023 — when president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office — and October this year, compared with the period between January 2019-December 2022. The government also highlighted that deforestation was down in 78pc of the 70 municipalities that were declared priority regions by the administration earlier this year. The government announced R730mn ($129mn) in funding to reduce environmental devastation in these municipalities in April. The government also reduced deforestation in the cerrado by nearly 26pc to 8,174km² in the period. That is the lowest level since 2019 and the first time deforestation in the biome has declined in four years. With the reduction in deforestation, Brazil's 2023 emissions fell by 12pc to 2.3bn tons of CO2 equivalent (t CO2e) from 2.6bn t CO2e in 2022, according to Brazilian climate think tank Observatorio do Clima. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU's Hoekstra balances divergent calls on climate

07/11/24

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07/11/24

EU's Hoekstra balances divergent calls on climate

Brussels, 7 November (Argus) — EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, nominated again for the role, balanced conflicting calls around climate legislation in a hearing today with members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Some MEPs were in favour of tougher climate legislation, while others demanded delays to targets. Hoekstra defended key climate energy legislation, including EU CO2 reduction targets for cars and vans, while maintaining a cautious approach on expansion of the EU emissions trading system (ETS) to new sectors. Hoekstra committed to a 2026 ETS review that touches upon maritime, aviation, municipal waste and negative emissions, in response to a question from German centre-right EPP MEP Peter Liese, who has been a key parliament negotiator for ETS reforms. "Negative emissions are a cornerstone of making it to net zero. I'll absolutely look into the ramifications, whether this could be included," said Hoekstra, commissioner-designate for climate, net-zero and clean growth. If international efforts to reduce aviation emissions do not deliver, Hoekstra is also open to an ETS that equally impacts EU and international aviation. Hoekstra underlined the pivotal importance for "predictability" of legislation for industry, referencing certain firms' concern at a 12-month delay to the bloc's deforestation regulation. Hoekstra promised a "dialogue" with the car industry about sticking to CO2 standards for cars and vans and the phase-out, from 2035, of new vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE). Hoekstra is "all in" for ensuring the EU car industry's success. But the Dutch politician is reticent about delaying penalties for carmakers that do not meet CO2 standards from 2025. For biofuels and e-fuels, Hoekstra does not want to change current EU legislation. The EU should not open the "box that was closed" by EU legislation, notably with a 2035 phase-out that only foresees use of the ICE with non-biogenic CO2 neutral fuels. "I feel there is a bright future for biofuels. We need more, particularly in many other domains," he said, equally noting that the EU needs to "focus first and foremost on electrification". And Hoekstra could give no clear deadline for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies in the EU, but said he would do his best to create transparency on the issue. Speaking notes prepared in advance of the hearing already indicated a cautious approach to new elements in future climate policy. Hoekstra underlined the need for a "business case" for decarbonisation in agriculture and forestry, mirroring the approach taken by EU agriculture commissioner-designate Christophe Hansen. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

06/11/24

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06/11/24

US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

Houston, 6 November (Argus) — Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies. An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures. The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day. While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks. The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations. While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration. Under the Clean Air Act, which sets the framework for the RFS, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude have a pathway to waive biofuel blending obligations if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate economic hardship." Precedent over these small refiner exemptions (SREs) affect the supply and demand balance of credits, which in turn alter the economics biofuel producers face as they rely on RIN credits as a source of revenue. From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs. During that span of time, EPA also chose not to adjust the renewable volume obligations on larger refineries to account for those that had secured waivers. This helped create an oversupply of D4, D5, and D6 credits and drove prices down to more than five-year lows. Cellulosic biofuel D3 credits in today's market also face a different set of parameters from the program's earlier years. The cellulosic waiver credit allowed producers to purchase waivers for D3 obligation given a shortage of RINs. But this mechanism changed under EPA's "set authority" and the Biden administration has brushed off a request from refiners to both lower requirements and make available waiver credits. Current year D3 prices have risen as high as 350¢/RIN this year as a result as cellulosic biofuel production trails agency expectations. A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates. RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers. By Matthew Cope and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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