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Germany eyes nuclear reserve

  • Market: Electricity
  • 05/09/22

Germany may extend the lifespan of two nuclear power plants in the south of the country for about four months, by putting the units scheduled to close on 31 December into a reserve until mid-April, economy and climate minister Robert Habeck said on Monday.

Habeck said the 1.4GW Isar 2 and 1.3GW Neckarwestheim 2 plants in the south — where power demand exceeds generation — would be activated only during severe grid or power supply bottlenecks. Habeck said he will make this suggestion to the other members of the coalition government. There are persistent grid bottlenecks between Germany's wind-rich north and the south.

The government had tasked the country's four power transmission system operators (TSOs) with carrying out a security of supply "stress test" for the 2022-23 winter, for the government to use as a basis for its decision on allowing the nuclear plants to run for longer.

The four TSOs presented the results of the study on Monday. The study suggests that extending the lifespan of Germany's remaining three nuclear plants — including northern Emsland — would help at times of extremely low power generation, with the contribution to grid stability more limited.

Under the ministry's suggestion, the government would in November and December closely monitor issues such as water levels — important for coal transport — the availability of French nuclear plants and natural gas supplies. If in December it becomes obvious that the market is tight, the two nuclear plants would simply continue to run, Habeck said.

Habeck stressed that the 2023-24 winter will be "totally" different. Gas supply will be much higher, there will — "hopefully" — be significantly more renewable power installations in the system, and the problems faced by coal-fired generation — regarding transport or permissioning procedures — are likely to be reduced, he said.


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22/01/25

Power outages weigh on Ecuador's presidential race

Power outages weigh on Ecuador's presidential race

Quito, 22 January (Argus) — Ecuador's leading presidential candidates would support at least some private-sector investment in energy, prompted by massive power outages last year that have weighed on the campaign. Incumbent president and leading candidate Daniel Noboa would keep investing in new thermoelectric plants and would tender the $600mn, 500MW Cardenillo hydroelectric project this year, he said when the 16 official candidates debated their platforms over the weekend. He would continue to support outside investment in the crude sector and large-scale copper and gold mining. On 9 February, about 13.7mn Ecuadorians are eligible to vote in the compulsory election to pick a president, vice president and 151 members of the one-chamber national assembly. This comes less than two years after a snap presidential and congressional election in August 2023 that Noboa won. Noboa is ahead despite crippling power outages last year under his administration because of droughts that cut Ecuador's hydroelectric output amid long-running technical problems and delays with the power plants contracted under previous administrations. Ecuador ended the rolling outages late last year as heavier rains, electricity imports from Colombia and additional thermoelectric capacity eased the problem. About 32pc-36pc of voters support Noboa. He is followed by Luisa Gonzalez, candidate of the Revolucion Ciudadana party sponsored by exiled former president Rafael Correa, with 21pc-33pc, according to Cedatos and Comunicaliza polls published on 18 January and 11 January, respectively. Gonzalez would support private-sector investment in the energy sector, but only to expand the coverage of electricity services. The hydroelectric plants facing technical and other problems were awarded during Correa's administration from 2008-2012, mostly to state-owned Chinese firms. The next leading candidates are Jimmy Jairala, a former television anchor and leader of Centro Democratico party, with 3pc, and Leonidas Iza, president of the confederation of indigenous nationalities (Conaie) and candidate of the Pachakutik party, with 2pc. Jairala also favors tendering the Cardenillo project and attracting outside investment to oil and mining but Iza opposes privatization of national resources and large-scale mining. The remaining candidates have even smaller shares, and 14pc of voters are undecided, with another 14pc planning to void their ballots. Unless a single candidate secures 40pc of the vote with a 10 percentage point or more lead, there will be a second round of voting on 13 April. The winner will take office on 24 May for a four-year term. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil pushes climate leadership in Davos


21/01/25
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21/01/25

Brazil pushes climate leadership in Davos

Sao Paulo, 21 January (Argus) — Brazil is looking to build an "ecological legacy" and called on richer countries to invest in its growing sustainable markets as it prepares to host the UN Cop 30 climate summit later this year, government representatives said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. "The last two Cop editions were held in countries where most of their economy relies on oil exploration," northern Para state governor Helder Barbalho said at WEF today. "For the first time this year, we will have the international community debating climate change and economy while standing in the largest rainforest in the world." Brazil will host Cop 30 in November in Para's capital Belem, at the mouth of the Amazon rainforest. It tapped veteran diplomat Andre Aranha Correa do Lago , an advocate of sustainable development, to preside over the summit. Also speaking at WEF, Brazil's supreme court president Luis Roberto Barroso focused on government efforts to prevent environmental crimes and regulate new sustainable market. Throughout President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's third administration — which began in 2023 — Brazil approved its carbon credit trade market as well as offshore wind generation and biofuels regulation . Barroso said that the Brazilian judiciary branch, along with the legislative and executive power, established ecological and landownership matters as major priorities. Para's governor touted its major achievements from 2019-2024. The state is Brazil's former largest largest greenhouse gases (GHG) producer, but has reduced its emissions. "People used to think that, in order to increase income, we should destroy our forests and open space for other activities," Barbalho said. "Today, we know how to take advantage of our forests to create sustainable jobs, new ways of income and to diversify our economy while preserving current flora and fauna." Although Para increased its cattle raising by 3mn from 2021-2024, it cut deforestation in Amazonian lands by 42pc because of sustainable practices and financial incentives for farmers to preserve native vegetation, Barbalho added. The state is also focusing on the carbon credit market, the governor said. Recently, Para sold carbon credits equivalent to over 12mn metric tonnes of CO2 , raising $1bn to be used in continuous emission-reducing practices thanks to state-issued policies. New growth Still, Brazil cannot meet its previous Cop pledges with only its current forests and without reforestation. Almost 50pc of Brazil's GHG emissions came from land-use and forestry as of January 2024 . In November, Para created Brazil's first forest restoration concession, which will allow companies to participate in an open call to reforest and restore the damaged area of the Triunfo do Xangu environmental reserve. Once the restoration is done, the company will generate revenue through carbon credits from the recovered area. Brazil — which saw increased deforestation during president Jair Bolsonaro's administration in 2019-2022 — has been targeting reforestation as part of its efforts to meet its emissions-reduction target. Brazil's mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira is also in Davos and seeking to attract investment in renewable energy-fueled data centers in Brazil, the ministry told Argus . The data center plan is under development and will be concluded by the end of the first half. Data centers consume up to 2pc of all power generated in the world and are responsible for 0.3pc of all CO2 emissions, according to the US International Energy Agency. But Barroso ended the panel saying that "climate change deniers made a triumphant return." On Monday, US president Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Climate agreement . "I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally later in the day. "The US will not sabotage their own industries while China pollutes with impunity." Trump is scheduled to speak at Davos on 23 January. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeated the slogan "drill, baby, drill" as part of his support for fossil fuel production in the US. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions


16/01/25
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16/01/25

Brazil to face weaker La Nina conditions

Sao Paulo, 16 January (Argus) — Many government agencies expect a weaker La Nina weather pattern in Brazil — partially because of its delayed start — that could help reverse damages from a previous droughtand boost hydroelectric power generation. La Nina conditions emerged a month later than expected, starting only in January, according to national meteorology institute Inmet. Its presence was confirmed by the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is 40pc likely to last until March-May. Delayed La Nina conditions and its weaker effects on Brazil's climate may be linked to the global average temperature hitting an all-time high in 2024 , according to the World Meteorological Organization. La Nina conditions develop when the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler-than-average across the central and central-eastern regions. But global oceans have been running much warmer for more than a year, which could have delayed the phenomena, according to NOAA. Its usually causes heavier rains in Brazil's northern and northeastern regions, while central-southern states experience drier weather and heatwaves. Brazil, along with South America as a whole, has a history of droughts , agricultural losses , and higher ethanol prices in previous La Nina seasons, but the effects this year will be milder and potentially beneficial to industries in some regions. Agriculture Despite its conditions set to last throughout the first quarter of 2025, Brazil's 2024-25 crop is expected to hit a record 322.3mn metric tonnes (t), up from 297.8mn t in the previous crop, according to national supply company Conab. Still, most forecasts rely on previous favorable conditions during the development of the 2024-25 crop. The soybean crop is set to be 13pc higher than in 2023-24, reaching 166.33mn t. Corn also is expected to increase production, reaching 119.6mn, a 3.3pc rise from the previous crop. But previous dry weather and low precipitation harmed center-southern sugarcane producers, which are responsible for 91pc of the national sugarcane output. The 2024-25 sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 678.7mn t, a 4.8pc decline from the previous season, according to Conab. La Nina's conditions may recover some of the sugarcane crop this season. Northeastern sugarcane production, harmed by last year's drought, will face a period of heavy rains brought by the phenomenon in January. But the sugarcane crop is already projected to decline by 30pc from the previous crop regardless, according to northeastern sugarcane producers' association Unida. The last time La Nina hit Brazil, in 2020-23, roughly 40pc of the main center-south sugarcane crop was at risk from dry weather . Ethanol Ethanol production is set to increase by 1.3pc in 2024-25 from the previous season, according to Conab. Still, sugarcane ethanol is outlined to shrink by 2.8pc thanks to 2024's dry weather and wildfires in the southeast. Electricity La Nina's late arrival enabled the summer rainy period in Brazil. The main hydroelectric reservoirs recovered from last year's drought and will end this month above half of their capacity, according to national grid operator ONS. Regardless of La Nina's presence, most of the central-southern states are expected to have above-average rains in January-April, according to Inmet. Temperatures are also set to stay above the historical average in the central-western, southeastern, southern and northern states. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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OECD highlights Chile’s green transition potential


15/01/25
News
15/01/25

OECD highlights Chile’s green transition potential

Santiago, 15 January (Argus) — The energy transition holds the potential to boost Chile's stagnant economic growth, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in a report published today. Chile's high renewable energy potential and "vast" lithium and copper reserves put the country in the right position to benefit from the switch to cleaner energy, according to the OECD Economic Survey of Chile 2025. But the country must simplify regulation, boost investment, upgrade electricity transmission and port infrastructure, and increase carbon prices to meet its climate targets and harness the benefits of the energy transition, it said. Chile's massive renewable energy potential is built on its OECD-leading photovoltaic power possibilities and the world's best onshore wind resources in the Magallanes region in the far south, it noted. It needs to streamline permitting processes that often exceed legal permit reviewing times, making "investment approvals costly and lengthy," it said. Chile's tax on carbon emissions of $5/t of CO2e is low by international standards and insufficient for the country to meet its emission reduction targets, the report said. The country plans to increase the tax to $10/t on sites that emit more than 25,000t/yr of CO2. The OECD also highlighted the country's need to ensure fiscal sustainability, foster women's participation in the labour market and accelerate productivity through digitalization and innovation to bolster growth. The country's income convergence with more advanced OECD economies has stalled since 2012, it said. GDP rose by 2.4pc in 2024, up from a 0.3pc increase in 2023, on the back of postpandemic "adequate macroeconomic policies". By Emily Russell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans


15/01/25
News
15/01/25

Seoul may scale down nuclear expansion plans

The delay to finalising the country's nuclear goals may make it unfeasible to build sufficient capacity before current assets expire, writes Evelyn Lee London, 15 January (Argus) — South Korea's energy industry has faced a whirlwind of challenges since the impeachment of now-suspended president Yoon Suk-Yeol, with the political turmoil stalling a crucial review of its energy strategy in the national assembly. The government is now seeking to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to hasten the plan's review. Yoon's surprise declaration of martial law last month was reversed within six hours owing to bipartisan political pressure and widespread protests, which resulted in a national assembly vote in favour of the president's impeachment and his subsequent arrest on 15 January. Yoon is suspended from office pending a ruling by the country's constitutional court — due within six months of the impeachment vote on 14 December. If six out of nine justices vote to uphold the impeachment, Yoon will be removed from office and presidential elections will be held within 60 days. South Korea acted quickly following the martial law declaration, but government action has overall been slowed down by the political turmoil — including on energy policy. The latest draft of its long-overdue electricity plan was completed in June and scheduled to be submitted to the Trade, Industry, Energy, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and Start-ups Committee of the national assembly by the end of last year. But the committee has suspended general meetings since 19 December, according to schedules released on its website. The long-term electricity plan is renewed every two years and serves as a basis for business planning, especially for state-controlled companies. Gas incumbent Kogas' procurement strategy has historically reflected the electricity plan. The latest draft lays out Seoul's intention to build three more nuclear reactors by 2038. But planning and construction would take nearly 14 years, according to the government, so the delay in finalising the plan could result in a power supply shortfall by 2038 — when 9.15GW of existing nuclear capacity is set to expire. Nuclear fallout The government may opt to scale down its nuclear expansion ambitions in order to get the draft electricity plan seen by the committee — which must review the plan, although it is not required to approve it. And less nuclear capacity could increase the need for more gas-fired capacity. The energy ministry pledged on 8 January to finalise the plan by June, after which it will pass related bills including the power grid act, but it did not say how it intends to progress the plan in the national assembly. The Korean Nuclear Society (KNS) responded on 9 January, accusing the government of allegedly planning to revise its nuclear objectives so it can speed up the plan's progress. The government's intent to revise its nuclear goals "without any scientific basis" shows that the electricity plan is just a "political bargaining tool that can vary depending on political interests", the KNS said. This threatens the stability of the South Korean electricity market, it added. The ministry did not respond to Argus' request for comment. But the alleged revision may not have been solely driven by political motives. Seoul may have missed the window of opportunity for approving new nuclear capacity in the timescale required, judging by the 14-year timeline for planning and construction. It remains unclear how the government would offset any reduction in its nuclear ambitions, but South Korea's slow grid development may leave little alternative other than boosting gas-fired capacity. Under the current draft electricity plan, gas-fired output would account for a 25.1pc (160.8TWh) share of total generation in 2030 and 11.1pc (78.1TWh) in 2038, up from 22.9pc (142.4TWh) and 9.3pc (62.3TWh), respectively, in the previous plan. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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