US producer price gains slow but up on the month

Market: Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
12/10/22

US producer price gains slowed in September from a year earlier, but posted a greater-than-expected monthly gain on higher service costs.

The producer price index (PPI), which tracks the prices producers receive for goods, services and construction, rose by 8.5pc in September, slowing from an 8.7pc annual gain in the 12 months through August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It peaked at 11.7pc in March.

The PPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4pc in September from the prior month, after monthly declines of 0.2pc in August and 0.4pc in July. The PPI peaked at a monthly 1.7pc gain in March.

Two-thirds of the latest monthly gain was due to gains in service costs, much of them gains in traveler accommodation services.

The PPI energy index rose by 0.7pc on the month after falling by 5.6pc in August. The energy index was up 24.2pc on the year. The food index was up 1.2pc on the month, surging from a 0.1pc decline the prior month.

The Federal Reserve is engaged in its steepest course of rate hikes since the 1980's as it tries to bring down inflation from four-decade highs brought on by the war in Ukraine, snarled supply chains and surging demand after Covid-19 shutdowns. Still, the latest move by Opec+ countries to cut crude output quotas by 2mn b/d means higher energy inflation pressures are in the pipeline. US gasoline prices have been rising at the pump for three weeks.

The index for final demand less food, energy and trade services — considered core PPI — advanced by 5.6pc on the year for a second month, slowing from prior months after peaking at 7.1pc in March. Still, on a monthly basis, it rose by 0.4pc in September following a 0.2pc gain the prior month and the largest monthly gain since 0.5pc in May.

The PPI report comes out a day before tomorrow's consumer price index (CPI) report — a measurement of what consumers pay for a basket of different goods and finished products — which is forecast to come in at about 8pc after a 8.3pc gain in August. PPI inflation often shows up in CPI numbers, as businesses generally pass on their costs to consumers.

By Robert Willis

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26/12/24

China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts

Beijing, 26 December (Argus) — China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has launched futures contracts and options for polysilicon today. This is the third contract that GFEX has launched, following the launch of its contracts for silicon metal in December 2022 and lithium carbonate in July 2023. The launch of polysilicon contracts is aimed at easing a supply surplus and ensuring market development, given increasing new capacities at polysilicon producers and lower-than-expected demand from the downstream silicon wafer industry in the past two years, according to market participants. The new contracts are for benchmark N-type polysilicon and substitute P-type polysilicon. The exchange has set a premium of 12,000 yuan/t ($1,644/t) for the N-type over the P-type. It is offering seven contracts starting from June 2025 until December. The most-traded June contracts for N-type polysilicon on the GFEX closed at Yn41,570/t on 26 December, up from the launch price of Yn38,600/t, with trading volumes totalling 301,655 lots, equivalent to around 905,000t. GFEX has established delivery points for the new contracts in eight provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. Output and consumption in these regions account for 93.1pc and 91pc of the country's total output and consumption respectively, according to GFEX. South China-based GFEX launched in April 2021 and is partly owned by China's four operational futures exchanges — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange — with each holding a 15pc stake. Market reaction Some market participants expect the new futures contracts will ease pressure from ample spot inventories and shore up spot market sentiment in the coming months. But the market has yet to see immediate effects on the first trading day. Argus -assessed domestic prices for 5-5-3 grade silicon metal — a key feedstock in the production of silicon powder, which is the feedstock for polysilicon — held at Yn11,200-11,400/t delivered to ports on 26 December, unchanged from 24 December given limited buying interest from consumers. The most-traded February contracts for 5-5-3 grade silicon on the GFEX closed at Yn11,190/t on 26 December, down from Yn11,585/t on 25 December. China is the world's largest polysilicon producer, producing 1.74mn t during January-November, up by 33pc from a year earlier, according to data from the China nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA). It has an production capacity of over 2mn t/yr, according to industry estimates. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

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26/12/24

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

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Viewpoint: US tariffs may push more Canadian crude east

26/12/24

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26/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs may push more Canadian crude east

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Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

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Viewpoint: US ethane to be oversupplied for 2025

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Viewpoint: US ethane to be oversupplied for 2025

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Overseas markets are gearing up to take ethane imports over the next few years , and US ethane inventories are likely to continue building ahead of of an expansion to domestic export infrastructure as US production grows further. Enterprise's Neches River export terminal in Beaumont, Texas, is the next scheduled US expansion and is set to complete its first phase in the third quarter of 2025 , adding 120,000 b/d of ethane export capacity. Completion of the second phase in the first half of 2026 would take this capacity to a total of 180,000 b/d. The project, if it remains on track, should curtail ethane inventory growth at the back end of 2025. Until then, abundant supply probably will continue to weigh on spot prices, and the first half of 2025 may see ethane prices fall further, both outright and relative to natural gas, especially since the EIA's outlook also forecasts gas prices to rise through the winter. By Joseph Barbour Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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